Distinguishing Prices From Market Values

by Don Boudreaux on December 6, 2005

in Myths and Fallacies, Prices

Let’s assume that Bill O’Reilly sincerely believes that oil companies were unjustified in raising the price of gasoline during the hurricane-ravaged Fall.  Such an assumption makes me yearn to know what he must be thinking – what’s going on in his brain.  So I try very hard to understand.

I suspect that his reasoning has something to do with the fact that at one level – the level most obvious to the pedestrian (or perhaps I should here say ‘the driver’) – prices are ultimately set by human beings.  I don’t mean here that O’Reilly is thinking that prices are “the result of human action but not of human design.”  Instead, I suspect that O’Reilly believes them to be the result of human action and of human design because some person or group of persons does indeed decide to post a price for each good or service.

That is, someone (or a committee of someones) at ExxonMobil actually decided to raise the price of a gallon of refined gasoline sold to retailers, and each retailer actually decided to change the meter in his pumps so that each gallon of gasoline pumped by mom into her minivan costs her more $$$.  And then, of course, more recently that same someone at ExxonMobil actually decided to lower the price charged to retailers, and some real, flesh-and-blood retailer actually lowered the price per gallon that his pumps register when consumers fill their tanks.

ExxonMobil could have chosen not to raise the prices it charges.  Ditto for other oil companies.  Ditto for each gasoline retailer.  The fact that such choices were humanly possible is taken by O’Reilly as proof that prices are determined by business people.

If the above does describe what’s going on in O’Reilly’s mind, I see two things wrong with his thought processes.

First, this way of looking at prices ascribes too much power and influence to sellers and too little to buyers.  Yes, some seller chose to ask “$3.79” per gallon of gasoline – a seller who could have physically, morally, and lawfully asked, say, only “$2.79” per gallon.  But each buyer chose to pay $3.79 per gallon – each one of whom could have physically, morally, and lawfully chosen not to pay that price per gallon.

Does the seller or the buyer “set” the price?  Isn’t the price more accurately reckoned as being set by both the seller and the buyer?

Second, and more importantly, O’Reilly confuses market value and price – or, rather, he fails to see that the correct price is the one that most accurately reflects market values.

Market values are not set by flesh-and-blood decision-makers in the same way that prices are.

When hurricane Katrina destroyed much oil- and gasoline-producing capacity in the gulf south, the supply of gasoline fell.  This sudden fall in supply made the market value of each gallon of gasoline rise.  No one – no flesh-and-blood person – no oil-company executive, no bureaucrat, no consumer, no one – chose for this rise in market value to happen.

Prices, of course, typically adjust to reflect market values.  (Or perhaps we should say instead, “prices typically are adjusted to reflect market values.”)  Because the economist recognizes that prices serve their purpose best when they accurately reflect market values  – and because the economist recognizes also that the incentives in private-property markets generally lead participants in those markets to set prices in accordance with market values – when the economist says “supply and demand determine prices,” what he or she means is that underlying supply and demand conditions determine market values and that the incentives confronted by sellers and consumers prompt each to agree to exchange each product at a price that reflects its market value.

So while prices can be kept above or below the market values of the products in question, market values are not subject to such manipulation.

The economist understands that prices are best that reflect market values; the non-economist too often overlooks this fact.

……

A final note: economics textbooks sport long discussions of externalities – situations in which sellers and buyers are not led by market forces to set prices to reflect market values. There’s near-unanimous agreement among economists that such situations are undesirable. Indeed, these situations are called “market failures.”

When people such as O’Reilly call for firms to charge prices that are below market value, they are really calling for firms to create market failures.

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  • foobar

    ignorant - it's rather simple and has been said before: Oil companies don't set prices for oil. They just have less product to sell, causing buyers to bid more per unit for the available product. These buyers in turn then raise their unit prices when selling to consumers.

  • ignorant

    can somebody please explain this. I think what O'Reilly is trying to say is "Ok. You guys raised price to offset the loses. Then how come this huge profits ?" This gives an impression of gouging by oil industry people. If they can explain this obvious contradiction instead of pontificating on market and economics may be common people will appreciate that.

  • Gabriel,


    You are spot on. Government intervention takes many forms. Here is an interesting read on how much our government is willing to do to ensure that gas prices stay low, relative to the rest of the developed world:


    http://citizenofliberty.blogspot.com/2005/08/fiat-money-deficit-spending-and.html


    Of course, O'reilly lacks a moral foundation - his fuel is populist jingoism - so he doesn't have an issue with either manipulating the US market or the world so that his viewers get cheap gas. His problem runs deeper than a 3rd grade understanding of economics.

  • This all reminds me of the difference between market value and perceived value of unskilled labor.


    The desire for a "living wage" (usually around $15/hr) is another way of saying that the price paid is under the real value.


    Just as there are negative consequences that are ignored with calls for a "windfall-profits" tax for oil companies, there are negative consequences for a minimum wage, many of which go ignored by those commenters usually disagreeing with the posts.


  • I live in England and if I drove I would be paying about $7 per US gallon.


    That is higher than it used to be but even after tax it has not risen by as much as in the US. The only reason I can see for this is that the US dollar is cheaper than it used to be.


    The weak dollar is the result of a government policy and market forces trying to correct the trade deficit by making imports more expensive. As oil is an import it makes good sense that it should be more expensive.


    Although oil is priced in US dollars, most people who buy it do not use USD as their currency. Saying how much the price of oil has risen in dollars seems a lot like commenting on how fast cars are moving on the opposite side of a motorway/freeway without appreciating that your are travelling towards them.


    No-one seems to have mentioned this and I'm not sure why. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.


    On another note. O'Reilly (we get him here too) has been blaming OPEC as well as the US companies for high prices. The fact that a cartel is in existence is his justification for interfering with the markets.


    In fact, in OPEC only Saudi Arabia is operating below full capacity and that's because they can't sell all their oil. The only refineries that can take Saudi oil (high in sulphur[sic]) were in the gulf.


    Even before Katrina, refinery outages were causing refiners to switch from heavy sour crude to light sweet crude (the one quoted on Nymex) which requires less intensive refining. As a result, the spread between heavy and light crude increased by about half.


    The refiners could actually have gouged more by collectively agreeing to stick with heavy crude and reduce their gasoline output. That would have increased margins at both ends by cutting input costs and pushing up the price of gas. I wonder why O'Reilly thinks they didn't do this.

  • JohnDewey

    Gabriel: "Americans arealdy have very small prices for gas, undoubtedly because of gov. intervention, but if the global market were to level then they couldn't avoid having to face the real pressure of demand."


    It's not government intervention. It's lower taxes. Here's some Oct-05 gasoline prices from the International Energy Agency:


    Total price in U.S. $/liter


    France $1.386

    Germany$1.461


    Italy $1.471


    Spain $1.166


    UK $1.588


    Japan $1.156


    Canada $0.752


    US $0.655


    Ex-Tax price in U.S. $/liter


    France $0.464

    Germany$0.486


    Italy $0.559


    Spain $0.538


    UK $0.530


    Japan $0.646


    Canada $0.491


    US $0.551


    http://tinyurl.com/ddvg9

  • Randy

    Gabriel,


    Re; Information Asymmetry.


    I think that is exactly what the accusers of the oil industry believe, that the industry had the information to know that prices would be coming down, and that price increases to take advantage of a temporary crisis therefore constituted gouging.


    Not that I buy that logic. I think price increases even for a temporary crisis make sense. But neither do I believe that the oil industry knew that the crisis was temporary. For all we know, the recent drop in prices is temporary. If the war goes badly, or the winter turns cold, we could be back at $3/gal a month from now.

  • Does Don really believe in externalities leading to "market failure?" I don't recall him writing previously on market failure.

  • P.S. A good way to put it, in relation to who sets the price is to say that business owners may demand a certain sum, but that a transaction happens at that level if and only if a consumer agrees to it.


    If we take price to be the value of actual transactions (not potential, or modeled ones) then no one sets prices.

  • The only point that makes some sense to me in connection to oil prices is related to information asymmetry: suppliers, at any given time know the market and know when to expect for prices to drop, rise, etc. On the other hand, consumers are in no position to judge if to abstain from buying now and waiting for the lower prices, etc.


    Oil is a seller's dream because all consumers can do is abstain from consumption, which is really difficult for them, so they'll theoretically accept prices higher than those historically practiced. The only issues is that people (Like O'R.) will feel somehow cheated by producers taking their advantage all the way.


    Americans arealdy have very small prices for gas, undoubtedly because of gov. intervention, but if the global market were to level then they couldn't avoid having to face the real pressure of demand.

  • Excellent explanation, Don. It's very easy to say "Well, it's an economist thing; you wouldn't understand." and very hard to say "here's how we view the matter." in very clear terms.


    Prices are set by the hand of man, but it is the invisible hand that determines the price that will clear the market.


  • gumpy

    John Pertz,

    I THINK "asg" is attributing the statement to O'Reiley, so your beef should be with O'Reiley and not "asg."

  • JohnDewey

    asg,


    I think the purpose of price is to fairly ration a scarce resource. An increase in price during a shortage ensures that only those who really need gasoline - the ones who are willing to pay the higher price - actually get the gasoline. At least that's how I understood Walter Williams' explanation.


    A second function of price is to attract additional supply. The gasoline wholesaler in Dallas, for example, may be willing to truck gasoline to Houston if he knows he can realize additional profit above the extra transport cost. In that case, the higher price might save the day for Houston evacuees who would otherwise be stranded fuel-less on the highway. Gasoline refiners in Europe will be motivated to ship gasoline over the Atlantic, as some actually did in September.


    I'm sure that an economics professor can explain this more succinctly. Don Boudreaux, is it possible to explain the rationing function of price so that even a Bill O'Reilly can understand?

  • What I think is going on in the heads of people who talk the way O'Reilly does, is a failure to realize that the economy is one gigantic auction, in which prices aren't set, but are constantly being negotiated among millions of market participants. He doesn't realize that the price to a buyer will be whatever it takes to bid that product away from a competing buyer, in a particular moment.


    It's easy not to realize that there is someone, somewhere, actually participating in an auction as a proxy for the retail consumer who pays a 'set' price. But the 'set' price is really determined up the chain by bidding.


    Another thing not understood by people who don't have practical experience of distribution channels, is that the normal retail price of anything is the most efficient way of getting a product from producer to user under NORMAL and PRACTICED methods. It's the lowest price you're going to see.


    When a natural disaster hits, that distribution chain is gone. Emergency supplies have to be delivered using more expensive methods, often improvised by people who aren't aware of, nor have the time to research, what, under ideal conditions, would be the most efficient way to deliver merchandise to consumers.

  • John Pertz

    ASQ, your argument doesnt make a whole hell of a lot of sense. If I sell cheese at a road side stand 8 bucks and the supplier raises his price for cheese to 9 bucks then what do you think will happen to my price?

  • asg

    You write: "First, this way of looking at prices ascribes too much power and influence to sellers and too little to buyers. Yes, some seller chose to ask “$3.79” per gallon of gasoline – a seller who could have physically, morally, and lawfully asked, say, only “$2.79” per gallon. But each buyer chose to pay $3.79 per gallon – each one of whom could have physically, morally, and lawfully chosen not to pay that price per gallon."


    Here is what O'Reilly might say in response to that:


    "Buyers couldn't REALLY choose not to pay the elevated prices, since the alternatives (not being able to move around somewhat freely in a disaster area, etc.) were unacceptable. However, we know by observation that the sellers were doing just fine and staying in business when the price was $2.79. Therefore the price rise was unnecessary for the sellers to remain in business, unless the increase in price exactly matches the increase in cost to provide gasoline post-Katrina. It is therefore unfair for the sellers to raise prices, since the sellers could charge the same price as before and stay in business whereas the buyers who cannot pay the new price suffer massive adverse consequences."

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