Remember outsourcing?

PCS - sounds like you are doing what is required in the global economy... keeping your skills current and moving to higher, value-add positions.

I didn't mean to get personal, but I've most often heard the sentiment expressed in the first post from co-workers of mine that have been plugging away at a system for years, refuse to consider learning new technologies, refuse work that is offered to them b/c they're too busy with the old system, and then wonder why they were let go.

And when it comes time to complain, they start the ethnocentric and almost racist comments about Indians. As someone who has worked with Indian programmers and businesspeople, I have nothing but respect for their drive and abilities. Let's face facts, the helpdesk jobs which were the focus of the outsourcing debate a few years ago were low value-add and were often considered to be "doing your time" by new hires.

In my discussions with CIOs, they are increasingly recognizing that it does NOT make sense for them to retain programming skills in their organization and are looking to external suppliers (ie outsourcing) to provide the solutions. Whether the supplier is Indian, American, or Romanian is a technicality, unless your focus is more on the stamps in the passport than the cost/skills of the workers.

not to mention that all of the low-level helpdesk jobs have little economic value to our economy. The new entry-level IT job is sw consulting, application development, etc, etc.

And I always find it interesting that those who whine about those jobs going to India are the very same idiots that complained about being stuck in a dead-end job 24 hours a day talking to people who have no clue about how a PC works.

and I have a sneaky feeling that the first commenter is a coder on some legacy system, unwilling to upgrade his/her skills to keep up... Happy to collect the paycheck, just fearing when the axe will fall. If you're productive and doing something economically beneficial to your employer, they won't axe you... they'll redeploy you if you show you're adaptable.

John:

> Aaron, how do you define technology jobs? Is it a very narrow definition?

I mean mostly software engineers. The numbers I had seen suggested at least 250,000 such jobs had been created in the DC area alone in the past 5 years. This may include computer engineers as well.

> Do you mean that there are no technology jobs in the areas you wish to live or at the salary you feel is acceptable?

Right. Salaries outside this sector are depressed, and the diversity of locations has been lessened.

This makes sense when you note that this build-up is a form of redistribution.

Another area that bothers me is grants. I do R&D on grants now and must always seek more grants to survive. However 95% of the available grant programs are military-based, which I basically won't do in principle.

>Obviously you don't or you wouldn't be arguing against it.

Now be fair, Radical. Some people genuinely don't care about the future. "In the long run, we're all dead."

(Coincidentally, isn't it exactly this attitude that liberals chastise conservatives for regarding the environment?)

Kudos to Michael.

I feel the same way. I've lost my job twice, at least one time directly due to outsourcing. You just take nothing for granted, seize the opportunity and move on.

There are lots of software jobs. Santa Clara county -- the heart of Sillicon Valley -- went from 2% unemployment to 6% during the bust, but things are turning around and it's down around 4% now. Headhunters are getting aggressive again.

Another thing that seems to be overlooked is that the economics rule dictating that worker compensation follows worker productivity is kicking in. I haven't seen any numbers, but anecdotal evidence here strongly suggests that software companies don't really save money outsourcing to Bangalore anymore, as Bangalore salaries (and rents, for that matter) are getting close to US levels.

"You know in the software world I would never be able to convince the end users in that “short-term pain, long-term gain” crap – you know my software is bad now, but when I expand my user base, it will work just “A” OK."

That sounds suspiciously like the Microsoft Windows model from 3.0 on to today.

"Obviously you are not from the field. You can quote as many studies as you want, but I will give you the insight of an insider – we all are just waiting for axe to fall."

Take it from another insider, this man is full of it.

"The government has created plenty of technology jobs through the unprecendented homeland security and general military buildup in the past half decade. From what I can tell (as someone in the industry), there aren't a lot of options outside that"

Aaron, how do you define technology jobs? Is it a very narrow definition? Do you mean that there are no technology jobs in the areas you wish to live or at the salary you feel is acceptable?

"Every job lost here takes away from the demand for whatever you have to offer to the market."--pcs

Wrong, if the jobs "lost" here are "found" somewhere else (as is the case with outsourcing) then the demand for goods and services has merely moved, not disappeared.

"I understand that underlying hypothesis is that this will work well in the long run and help us all be wealthier."

Obviously you don't or you wouldn't be arguing against it.

"but where is your empirical evidence that this actually will be the result of this process?"

The process has been going on since the dawn of civilization and standards of living have gotten progressively and consistently better throughout history barring government or religious authority doing something stupid. What more evidence do you need?

"You know in the software world I would never be able to convince the end users in that “short-term pain, long-term gain” crap – you know my software is bad now, but when I expand my user base, it will work just “A” OK."

Einstein didn't try to sell anything, he just told people how the world worked. Free market (aka "good") economists arent trying to sell anything (OK, maybe a book or two) either, they're just explining how the world works. You don't have to like it.

Did PCS refer to the Stock Market as a Ponzi Scheme? Hilarious

Michael: good on ya!

James: remember: When the Boogeyman goes to sleep every night he checks his closet for Chuck Norris

The tech job market is definitely heating up. I have had recruiters call me every day this week for jobs, and since I am a full time MBA student, I am not even looking for one. Outsourcing is a bogeyman.

As a software professional who was laid off 4 times in a 2.5 year time frame (no layoffs in the last two years though) and as a person who worked for two software development companies actively engaged in offshore development efforts I am all for offshore development.

It frees me up to better serve niche markets, willing to pay higher rates and it will provide me with an opportunity to tap into the lower cost (but good enough developers) to get a software business off the ground.

I also have an even more personal stake in the issue. My wife and I met because we worked on a onshore-offshore team together. She is from India and I am from the US. This would not have happened, if I hadn't been laid off and companies were not looking off shore for tech employees.

Even the uncertainty of being laid off during the birth of our first son is insignificant in the face of the opportunities that we now have because of the changing environment in our chosen field.

I refuse to become obsolete and bitter over lost jobs. They weren't mine to begin with. They always belonged to the employer.

My job is to sell my services to employers/clients. If my services are not required or will not sell for enough. Then I need to upgrade my portfolio, change careers or even move to India.

No matter the outcome, I am responsible for the direction I take, not my current employer or our client.

The government has created plenty of technology jobs through the unprecendented homeland security and general military buildup in the past half decade. From what I can tell (as someone in the industry), there aren't a lot of options outside that. This is more than a little bit worrisome because it is starting to come out now just how much of this buildup amounts to wasted tax dollars (i.e. most of it), so I expect there to be some contraction when the political winds shift.

pcs,

I can find plenty of evidence that foreign competition and outsourcing have increased my standard of living. Most items sold are higher quality yet cheaper now than 30 years ago when U.S. plants had little competition.

Over the same period, U.S. unemployment rates dropped and average U.S. wages have increased. Wages for semi-skilled and unskilled U.S. workers may not have increased much. But that's the price anyone pays for becoming obsolete or overpriced.

What about technical jobs? I haven't looked at longer term numbers, but I don't think the total has dropped recently.

From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Computer and Mathemetical Occupations

1999 jobs 2,620,000

1999 mean salary $54,930

2004 jobs 2,932,300

2004 mean salary $66,370

Engineering and architecture professionals

1999 jobs 2,506,380

1999 mean salary $51,600

2004 jobs 2,385,680

2004 mean salary $63,060

So computer professionals increased by 12% while 5% of engineering jobs were eliminated. Perhaps fewer engineers are needed today because all those computer jocks automated much of engineers' work. Thanks to computer guys, the remaining engineers are more productive and command higher salaries.

Do you have empirical evidence that the U.S. workforce is hurting?

"I started to argue with your smart assed response that the best sensitivity is creating jobs. "

You should have completed it, so we could see how your ideas would better help them. Go ahead, enlighten us.

"You're simply not worth it. The callous tone and intellectual bigotry of your posts indicate you haven't the capability to look beyond your own tiny little perspective. So be it."

Callous tone? Creating newer jobs is bad for those who got unemployed? Whoa man! who's being callous here?

Let me ask you the question again, how many jobs does blackmailing create?

fault,

Do you think Abhinay is wrong about creating a job-friendly environment? Legislators continue to enact laws making it difficult to terminate poor employees or more expensive than necessary to make a workplace safe. Every time they do so, it becomes a little easier to outsource jobs. It is not just the wage rates that make Asia so attractive.

Abhinay,

I started to argue with your smart assed response that the best sensitivity is creating jobs. You're simply not worth it. The callous tone and intellectual bigotry of your posts indicate you haven't the capability to look beyond your own tiny little perspective. So be it. You can go now.

"... but we also shouldn't have such an insensitive attitute toward the folks who are caught in the middle of all this progress"

The best sensitivity that can be shown is by fostering a job-friendly environment, not by emotionally blackmailing those companies.

Exactly how many jobs did Lou Dobbs's whine and Arnolds-list create?

Well, the "OK" part really depends on who you are. If you own the company, don't have a job subject to offshoring (or whatever the term-du-jour happens to be) or are independently wealthy, it really will be "OK"!

If, however, you're one of the schlubs who get displaced, the short-term ain't quite so rosy. In the long run outsourcing, offshoring, whatever you call it, may be best for everyone, there's an awful lot of individual pain that will happen.

We cannot - nor should we wish - to halt free trade or globalization, but we also shouldn't have such an insensitive attitute toward the folks who are caught in the middle of all this progress.

Swimmy,

How can you spend so much time worrying about those Indians when there are people in California who paid too much for a house to worry about?

Unfortunately "doom and gloom" sells a lot better than "it's going to be OK."

Either way, pcs, I worry more about Indians than I do about you.

You know. Their country is poor and all.