The Falling Price of Food

by Russ Roberts on August 25, 2006

in Health

There’s an interesting conversation between Darius Lakdawalla and Carol Graham over at the Wall Street Journal’s Econoblog on why Americans are getting fatter over time An excerpt from Lakdawalla’s opening comment:

Since 1976, food has fallen in price by more than 12%
compared to other goods. My colleague Tomas Philipson and I have shown
that this reduction in price can explain at least half the recent growth in obesity.
Shin-Yi Chou, Michael Grossman and Henry Saffer reached similar
conclusions about the importance of price. In addition to its overall
price, they stressed the increasing availability of food service establishments.

While it is not entirely clear whether restaurants
make people heavier, or heavier people attract more restaurants, there
is no question that eating is cheaper and easier than it used to be.

As if that were not enough, the most calorie-dense
foods have seen the biggest price reductions. David Cutler, Edward
Glaeser, and Jesse Shapiro have shown that technological advances have especially lowered the price of processed and snack foods  — like french fries and vending machine treats — which are particularly high in calories.

Comments

{ 9 comments }

Al August 25, 2006 at 12:09 pm

I smell a calorie tax coming!

Patrick R. Sullivan August 25, 2006 at 1:01 pm

It's also happening in Britain according to today's Telegraph.

I wonder how the likes of Kevin Drum explain this. Shouldn't obesity be confined to the filthy rich pigs who siphon off everything before the rest of us have a chance?

Wild Pegasus August 25, 2006 at 1:35 pm

The father of a friend of mine made another point. i don't remember it, but he said that 25 years ago you got a small paper packet of fries and a 12 oz. soda with your burger. Now, even the smallest add-ons are double the volume they once were. He think the new smalls are at least 16 oz., and the new small fries are double what they once were. That doesn't even touch on the King/Super sizes.

There are, of course, a lot of reasons that obesity is increasing – better home entertainment, longer commutes, cheaper junk food, more sedentary jobs, less smoking. All of these add calories or subtract exercise except for smoking, which curbs appetite and increases metabolism.

The solutions are pretty simple though. Cut out the junk food, easy off the starches, and get vigorous exercise a few times a week.

- Josh

dale gribble August 25, 2006 at 1:37 pm

I remember 'back in the day' (early-mid 60's) that even soda pop was something of a luxury item. my family rarely drank soft drinks except at get togethers, cook outs, etc. my buddies and i would have to share a 12 oz bottle of pop from the golf course. now soft drinks are everywhere

loikll August 25, 2006 at 9:33 pm

There's some interesting economics behind part of this. I have a skinny-but-voracious UK colleague who, when visiting, never fails to be enthralled at such typical American service as 20+ oz soft drinks, large portions, free chips or free bread appetizers, free refills. He simply can't get over the free refills. For the 50th time he'll ask, "and this is … FREE?" No to mention the ICE!

And I've repeatedly explained to him, a restaurant's got to pay its fixed costs, whether that table is empty and generating no revenue, or else filled by delighted paying and tipping customers.

The incremental cost of another 20 oz of diet coke is literally almost zero, and the food itself isn't very much, and it would be incredibly stupid NOT to make those small investments when they encourage profitable repeat business.

Of course the real mystery to me is why restaraunts in the UK can't seem to do the math, hell those people invented economics. (Also I always have to supplement his tips, he can't quite get a handle on the concept of double-digit percent tips).

bbartlog August 25, 2006 at 9:54 pm

It's an interesting model. I think the assumption that poorer people derive less utility from being thin is less plausible than the idea that they have (on average) steeper future discounting than the wealthy, but that's a minor quibble and for all I know the math works out the same. There are of course other factors, like the increased use of corn syrup and the higher fertility of heavier people (which could lead to changes in the genetic pool). But it doesn't make sense to think you could cover everything in one paper :-)

Stephen August 26, 2006 at 4:57 am

I also think our stupid farm subsidies and our protectionist policies on food imports are to blame as well. I heard that without the subsidies and the tariffs, sugar would be just about the same cost as corn syrup. Also, the subsidies tend to be the heaviest for the ingredients on junk foods and less so on fresh fruits and vegetables, thus greatly distorting the cost differences.

eddie August 29, 2006 at 12:51 pm

"[..] french fries and vending machine treats — which are particularly high in calories."

Saying that some kinds of food are high in calories is nonsensical. It's like saying that some kinds of text are high in word count.

Calories measure quanitity of food. Calories are the same regardless of their source: a hundred calories of fries is no higher in calories than a hundred calories of celery. Comparing the caloric density of different foods – e.g. calories per gram or calories per cubic centimeter – is sensical but pointless; people don't eat certain weights or volumes of food, they eat certain amounts of calories.

Janani Ram August 29, 2006 at 8:20 pm

I think it is just not due to the fact that the price of the food is falling that there is growth in the rate of obesity.
Food is one of those needs that can be satisfied. So an individual cannot keep buying or eating food after a point, at a given time.It is a satiable need at every point.
I think the "life style " is a bigger and more important a reason that affects one's food habbits.
People resort to fast food, french fries etc not only because it is inexpensive mainly because it is "readily available" and available every where .One mostly need not go look for it. Life is too fast to stop by and decide what kind of food is healthy,lesser in calorie etc.
I have been in the USA only for some time but it amazes me , when I look around , becuase most of them have a fast food and or an aerated drink along while they are out, all the time. This is in my opinion , a result of their schedule and not their affordability or the pricing of food.

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