Amoxicillin expiry. Amoxicillin and clavulanate potassium indications. Amoxicillin side effects. Amoxicillin flavors for kids. Amoxicillin 500mg….

From the very beginning of NYC's decline in crime (which began dropping noticeably during the last year of the Dinkins administration), New York's jail population fell. The state prison population began falling in about 1994, and today NYC's contribution to that decline is disproportionate.

In other words, the decline in prison populations is not the END result of a get-tough policy. It tracked the decline in crime from the very beginning.

As for declines in poverty accounting for the decline in imprisoment, as suggested above? There's not much empirical evidence to back up that assertion. The poverty rate in New York throughout this period has hovered at between 18 and 22 percent. In fact, it was higher in the early 90s as crime began falling. Similarly, as late at 1988, the unemployment rate in the Bronx and inner city Brooklyn topped 15 percent. Yet crime fell rapidly in these areas.

As for Idaho, there was no striking change in the demographics of the place, save for an influx of Californians of higher income. It's doubtful they contributed to the rise in crime, though.

More likely, the national obsession with metamphetimines has hit Idaho particularly hard, leading to vastly increased rates of imprisonment. It is wise policy to lock up low-level drug users? That's a hard case to make.

Lastly, the blogger asks, well, how do we know the crime decline wasn't driven by demographics? A little research on census websites shows that's not the case, at least during the early and most dramatic years of New York's crime decline. The percentage of people living in poverty, the percentage of blacks, of Latinos, all stayed more or less the same throughout this period. Of late, there HAS been a very large influx of immigrants, and there is intriguing work correlating this influx with a decline in crime.

Now the other observation pertinent in the NYC crime/prison situation is that this is the first notice, of falling prison populations, that has been given to the results–a la the tipping point. Since Guiliani's introduction of various policing strategies in '94, the prison population went up, up, up, and the crime rate went down, down, down, if only because the criminals were behind bars, and could not commit crimes (pace Alex's comments to the contrary).

Also, it's worth noting that the major crime reduction occurred in the most economically impoverished neighborhoods, e.g. Harlem, Wash Hts, East New York, Bed-Stey, South Bronx, et.al., therefore paving way for economic renaissance to occur as such neighborhoods become viable for investment.