Comments on: Causes of Crime

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By: Michael

Michael — Sun, 24 Dec 2006 17:05:46 +0000

The article--which I wrote--in no way dismisses Giuliani's war on crime. But it's important to have a clear-eyed view of the phenomenon. To wit:

From the very beginning of NYC's decline in crime (which began dropping noticeably during the last year of the Dinkins administration), New York's jail population fell. The state prison population began falling in about 1994, and today NYC's contribution to that decline is disproportionate.

In other words, the decline in prison populations is not the END result of a get-tough policy. It tracked the decline in crime from the very beginning.

As for declines in poverty accounting for the decline in imprisoment, as suggested above? There's not much empirical evidence to back up that assertion. The poverty rate in New York throughout this period has hovered at between 18 and 22 percent. In fact, it was higher in the early 90s as crime began falling. Similarly, as late at 1988, the unemployment rate in the Bronx and inner city Brooklyn topped 15 percent. Yet crime fell rapidly in these areas.

As for Idaho, there was no striking change in the demographics of the place, save for an influx of Californians of higher income. It's doubtful they contributed to the rise in crime, though.

More likely, the national obsession with metamphetimines has hit Idaho particularly hard, leading to vastly increased rates of imprisonment. It is wise policy to lock up low-level drug users? That's a hard case to make.

Lastly, the blogger asks, well, how do we know the crime decline wasn't driven by demographics? A little research on census websites shows that's not the case, at least during the early and most dramatic years of New York's crime decline. The percentage of people living in poverty, the percentage of blacks, of Latinos, all stayed more or less the same throughout this period. Of late, there HAS been a very large influx of immigrants, and there is intriguing work correlating this influx with a decline in crime.

By: Forbes

Forbes — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 14:39:48 +0000

The poster just above, David, is correct in questioning the level of the state prison population, and although I do not have the figures at hand, the State of New York is closing something like 10-20% of its prison beds due to a reduction in prison population.

Now the other observation pertinent in the NYC crime/prison situation is that this is the first notice, of falling prison populations, that has been given to the results--a la the tipping point. Since Guiliani's introduction of various policing strategies in '94, the prison population went up, up, up, and the crime rate went down, down, down, if only because the criminals were behind bars, and could not commit crimes (pace Alex's comments to the contrary).

Also, it's worth noting that the major crime reduction occurred in the most economically impoverished neighborhoods, e.g. Harlem, Wash Hts, East New York, Bed-Stey, South Bronx, et.al., therefore paving way for economic renaissance to occur as such neighborhoods become viable for investment.

By: David

David — Tue, 28 Nov 2006 18:16:17 +0000

I suspect that prisoners sentenced to terms longer than one year ended up in state prisons rather than the city jails. It would be helpful if data on the number of New York City residents in state prisons were also examined.

By: bbartlog

bbartlog — Tue, 28 Nov 2006 11:11:56 +0000

Unemployment rates are strongly (inversely) correlated with crime rates. And unemployment has been low for a long time now.
For some of the rural places like West Virgina and Idaho I wonder whether those huge percentage increases just reflect previously very low crime rates, now increasing to more typical urban levels as things like crystal meth or urban gangs reach the more rural parts of the US.

By: Mr. Econotarian

Mr. Econotarian — Mon, 27 Nov 2006 23:36:06 +0000

One also needs to consider the ratio between entrepreneurial / consentual crime rates (like drug dealing) versus violent crime rates or property crime rates, and the incarceration rates of those crime types as well.

By: alex

alex — Mon, 27 Nov 2006 21:01:22 +0000

Crime does not rise or fall due to the disincentives of punishment. Crime tends to follow societal trends on the local level. So, if poverty is down in an area, as well as falling infant mortality rates, hunger, etc., crime will tend to fall as well, since growing economic stability will cause people to go find jobs than join the bloods and crips, for instance. New York City has experienced an economic boom from the eighties to the nienties, and I suspect this has something to do with the falling crime rates their, as does the property bubbles in East Harlem and other deprived neighborhoods (giving local residents much needed cash).

By: Charlie Quidnunc

Charlie Quidnunc — Mon, 27 Nov 2006 16:26:29 +0000

Malcolm Gladwell talked about this in "The Tipping Point". He claims that once it became clear enough to potential criminals that the police would not tolerate any level of crime, the rate dropped precipitously. This is where the "zero tolerance" method of policing got started. They first attacked the graffiti problem on subway cars, and dropped that level of crime below a "tipping point", after which little more effort had very large rewards.

By: matt

matt — Mon, 27 Nov 2006 15:29:26 +0000

Maybe crime is down in NYC because the criminials have moved down here to Philly?

I see more people from NYC in this area than ever before in my lifetime.