Wise Words on Global Warming

by Don Boudreaux on December 8, 2006

in Energy, Environment, Risk and Safety, Science

The Foundation for Economic Education’s Sheldon Richman has some wise words about the global-warming debate.  Here’s the crux:

More than a few reputable scientists see potential problems in the climate
change that is occurring. Thus the issue needs to be evaluated on its merits. I
know of no a priori reason to rule out the possibility that human activity is
producing enough greenhouse gases to warm the atmosphere to an extent that will
have bad consequences. That doesn’t mean it’s happening, just that it’s not
impossible.

For every factoid about ice sheets or sea levels or sun spots
I can pull from the skeptics’ literature, someone else can produce a
counter-factoid. How is a nonscientist to decide which is accurate?

This
is not to say the skeptics don’t raise apparently compelling points. They do,
and the believers should address them. But that still leaves the problem of how
a layman is to sort the wheat from the chaff.

For advocates of individual
liberty it is tempting to believe the skeptics are right because the other side
is associated with statist solutions to climate change. Most solutions call for
government control over the burning of fossil fuels. No advocate of free markets
can be comfortable with a position that entails substantial taxes and subsidies
to achieve a political objective — reduction of carbon emissions — especially
when the solutions promise no more than negligible reductions in temperature.
(Temperature, not emissions per se, is supposed to be the believers’ cause for
concern.)

But picking sides in a scientific debate on the basis of
proposed remedies is the wrong way to go about things. A believer in global
warming could get the science right but the remedy wrong. That government
shouldn’t ban smoking doesn’t mean smoking isn’t bad for you. There is nothing
incoherent about favoring free markets and thinking that global warming
is a problem.

Sheldon’s absolutely correct.

Relatedly, my GMU colleague, law professor Bruce Johnsen, sent this response to the George Mason University Faculty Senate.  Bruce’s note is self-explanatory — and also wise:

Dear Faculty Senate,

I emphatically decline to sign the Climate Change petition and would like to be on record for so declining.  I object to the Faculty Senate presuming to speak for individual faculty members on matters such as this that are both debatable by any reasonable person standard and highly political.  They are best left to individuals’ actions as citizens independent of their connection to GMU.  This kind of group-think is most offensive and in my view the Faculty Senate has no authority to engage in it.

Although climate scientists are competent to tell us whether the earth is, for the time being, warming, or whether it is warming outside some historically normal parameters, they are not competent to forecast the economic consequences of such warming or to suggest what should be done in response.  When they try to do so they are not acting as scientists but as political advocates.  Even if it is true that global warming will generate "large-scale disruptions," the consensus among economists — whose expertise is at evaluating trade-offs –  is that taking the steps necessary to avoid such disruptions will lead to substantially larger disruptions.

Cordially,
D. Bruce Johnsen
GMU School of Law

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  • I totally agree that you can believe in global warming and think that the recommendations people make are not the solution to dealing with the problem.


    However, a market based cap-and trade program is a great way to deal with global warming gases that addresses the problem while also supporting free markets.


    Just because you believe in free markets doesn't mean you can't use the government to solve large problems like global warming.

  • Tom Adams

    Is a carbon cap and trade system a statist solution? Is it statist to eliminate a form of harmful communism, eliminate unlimited dumping in a commons?


    I suppose having a civil law system backed by a police force is a statist solution to the problem of protecting private property.

  • ben

    Tom


    "Shouldn't we at least spend the time to figure out if the effects of GW will or will not be positive?"


    Since GW policy is unnecessary if either GW is beneficial overall or if the cost of policy outweighs its benefits, focusing on one or the other is sufficient to reject policy.


    My understanding is that although GW will produce some benefits, the costs will outweigh those and overall GW is a bad for people. So if policy is to be rejected it must be on comparison of costs and benefits.

  • Tom

    "There's a difference between attempts to prevent global warming from happening, and dealing with its consequences."


    Shouldn't we at least spend the time to figure out if the effects of GW will or will not be positive?

  • ben

    Sheldon Richman


    There's a difference between attempts to prevent global warming from happening, and dealing with its consequences. I have been concerned with the former. Quite possibly a case can be made for compensating people affected by warming, I haven't thought about it.

  • joan

    Eric:

    You are making the assumption that a well-meaning bureaucrat, politician, or taxpayer would find no value in research that would disprove warming. Given that congress, the public, and the Bush administration is opposed to any action,I think the pressure on government scientists from this source is to disprove its existence. You are grasping at straws with an argument like this. The debate in the sientific community has been going on for over 25 years with government scientists on both sides, what has tipped the balance in opinon is the recent evidence of warming.

  • I predicted "At the rate this thread is going, I predict an example of publication bias."


    Score!


    "do you trust oil/gas/coal for CO2 information or the NOAA/NASA"


    Appeal to authority is the flip-side of ad hominem. The fact that an oil company paid for something (or that a researcher at one time received money from them) does not prove something is false any more than the fact that the government paid for it is false.


    Government researchers are paid to produce things that are useful to the government. They tend to not publish things that aren't - if they do, it will soon dawn on some well-meaning bureaucrat, politician, or taxpayer that we ought not spend money on something of no value or which could be funded by someone who does value it. Agencies, especially the increasingly irrelevant and narcissistic NASA, must justify their own existence somehow.

  • "Don's post said that there is no inconsistency between accepting anthropogenic global warming and denying it is worth "fixing"."


    In Dolan's paper, which I linked to in my FEE article, he raises the issue of libertarian/Lockean justice in connection with global warming. Is there an issue of justice here? Assuming that people living in low-lying areas in Bangladesh are being damaged by man-caused global warming, is compensation due? What does "worth fixing" meaning? If I impose on you but by some measure the damage to you is regarded as less than the cost to me of stopping the damage, does that mean nothing should be done? Does that satisfy the demands of individual rights and justice? This is the sort of thing Dolan asks.

  • Hey, good news! Now, it's only half as bad as they previously thought.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/10/nclimate10.xml

  • ben

    Bruce


    You're still missing the point. A reasoned case against government action can be made taking anthropogenic global warming as given. That is the main point in Don's post. It is a point missed by most in the global warming movement.


    Who is "simply not wanting to respond"?

  • Ben,


    I guess denial is a valid approach, but denial with a valid reason seems somehow more... valid.


    Simply not wanting to respond is a choice, but not a very convincing one.

  • ben

    Don's post said that there is no inconsistency between accepting anthropogenic global warming and denying it is worth "fixing".


    It seems to me this should be the one post on global warming where a debate about the merits of whether warming is occurring shouldn't happen. Don is taking warming as given and saying the case for policy response doesn't stack up.


    Bracken and Bruce have apparently missed this essential point.

  • ben

    The success of CFC "targets and timetables" approach to reductions are a poor guide for how to reduce carbon emissions. Kyoto was designed in light of the success of the Montreal Protocol but greenhouse gases are less amenable to this approach. The reason is that there is no ready substitute for greenhouse gas emissions in the way that there is for CFCs.


    I think the lesson to take away from Montreal is not that targets and timetables can work, it is the value of having access to a clean alternative. Montreal's lesson is more about the role of technology than the best approach to regulation.

  • python

    Whether or not I believe that humans are playing as large of a role in Global Warming as Al Gore wants me think is irrelevant to this discussion. I thought this discussion was about when it is appropriate for the Government to get involved in Global Warming (e.g. carbon tax, KYOTO, etc.).


    As of December 9, 2006 I would need about 100 times as much "proof" about humanity's role before I would consent to "forced loss of freedom".


    All those who run to the government for solutions are doing just that. Those that think that a collection of individuals can act without Big Brother will resist government interference.


    I find it amusing that we are supposed to trust scientists who's income and/or reputation is largely based on whether or not we should keep funding global warming research, but we are not supposed to trust oil companies. Scientists are pure whereas businesses are corrupt, right? If you think that tenured professors don't care about huge federal grants then I have some Arizona Glaciers to sell you.


    I've worked in science and academia for 16 years and it's about as pure as the rest of humanity.

  • I want to expand on how the RealClimate article is not a response to Crichton's contention that science has a spotty record on its panics of the last 100 years. In the article linked by Bracken, here is the whole discussion of that:


    "Finally, in an appendix, Crichton uses a rather curious train of logic to compare global warming to the 19th Century eugenics movement. He argues, that since eugenics was studied in prestigious universities and supported by charitable foundations, and now, so is global warming, they must somehow be related. Presumably, the author doesn't actually believe that foundation-supported academic research ipso facto is evil and mis-guided, but that is an impression that is left."


    That wasn't the point of the appendix. Crichton cites and discusses several huge scares (DDT, population bomb, etc.) that popular scientific thought got wrong and cost lives. The point is not to call the atmospheric scientists morally equivalent to eugenicists, nor to question their funding sources. The point was to provide a historical context for evaluating current claims of impending disaster.


    "This time, we're not making this up!" is not an answer. An answer might be to respond to Arnold Kling's criticism that models are unreliable. Show the economists how to apply atmospheric science model making to make better economic models. Or fix the BCS rankings if that's too difficult.

  • Paul Zrimsek

    do you trust the national science academies or a science fiction writer??


    No.

  • Bracken, With respect to Crichton, I was talking about things like eugenics, DDT, MTBE, etc. Perhaps you just never read the book or the afterward. We're talking about the intersection of science and politics, that it has a spotty legacy at best.


    Bruce G Charlton above, enumerates the Al Gore argument sequence. What if the global warmers are wrong at one of the steps, and their incorrectness costs lives, makes lives worse, or makes people less free? What if you're wrong in proportion, as was clearly the case with banning DDT? This study of trade-offs among people is what economists know how to do, not atmospheric scientists.


    It reminds me of a typical dot-com story (that I lived through) where the brilliant engineer company founder runs the company into the ground because he thinks he knows everything and doesn't need non-engineers. Not so bad, except in doing so, he takes other people and other people's money into the ground with him.


    Until the global warming proponents (mostly scientists and politicians and journalists who parrot their message) grow enough humility to invite a real discussion, it's probably prudent to just deny, deny, deny. And it's funny that as a real discussion starts without their blessing (i.e. Copenhagen Consensus), there truly are trade-offs to consider.


    Here's a way the scientists could start showing humility. Condemn the "stop funding the deniers" letter sent by Senators Snowe and Rockefeller to Exxon. Stop that kind of garbage and there might be a reasonable conversation to be had.

  • Bracken,


    since you are citing a 5-year "trend" and the work of the geologists, climatologists, meteorologists, astrophysists, and environmental scientists evaluate changes over millions of years... I have to presume you want to selectively support your arguments with "evidence" that is circumstantial... at best.


    But, worse, anyone who doesn't agree with you and provides sound, scientific evidence to contradict your position must be labeled a "mouthpiece"... because they do not fit your political agenda.


    http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2006/12/climate-politics.html

  • Bracken

    Bruce


    What you are stating is simply false,

    all these issue have been examined recently in the literature


    as one example CO2 levels

    http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
    </p
    >

    "friendsofscience" is an oil/coal mouthpiece it is not a credible source of information.


    do you trust oil/gas/coal for CO2 information or the NOAA/NASA


    do you trust the national science academies or a science fiction writer??

  • http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?ide=5


    An examination of published scientific data show many inconsistencies between the climate record and the CO2 - Global Warming hypothesis. Some of these are:


    * The major greenhouse gas is water vapour, and the nature of CO2 / water vapour interactions is not clearly understood. Moreover, James Hansen (2000) downplayed the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas.

    * Antarctic ice cores in one study show carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 ppm about 600 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations, while in another study Antarctic ice core data show that CO2 levels lag an increase in temperature by 900 to 1200 years.


    * World Climate Report shows that annual growth in concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have remained essentially flat from 1975 to the present - during a time of maximum production of CO2 from fossil fuels. This casts doubt on the claim that rapid and dramatic build-ups of CO2 will occur in the future.


    * We know that CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels was not the cause of dramatic historical climate changes, for example, 1000 years ago, in the Medieval Warm Period or in the Little Ice Age that followed from about 1350 to about 1860. We are still emerging, in an oscillating fashion, on the warming trend that came after the Little Ice Age. Global historical temperature data is readily available, for example Canada, Mediterranean, Alaska, China and Canadian Rockies.


    * In the 20th century, there was little correlation between temperature changes and CO2 levels. Some surface temperature measurements show a 0.5°C rise over the past 100 years. However, that average hides some significant details. From 1905 to 1940, a rise of about 0.5°C was measured, during which time there was an imperceptible rise in CO2. From 1940 to 1975, the temperature decreased about 0.2°C, while CO2 levels started to increase more rapidly. The out-of-sync relationship is obvious.

  • Bracken

    Crichton has been rebutted,

    here is a site set up by NASA and Academic climatologists


    http://www.realclimate.org/
    <br
    >
    Response to Crichton


    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=74
    </p
    >

    NASA report

    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20060925...>

    Link to 2001 statement on global warming issued jointly by 16 different national academies of science

    http://www.royalsociety.org/document.asp?tip=1&...>

    If you look at the statements from the individual national academies of science there is a striking consensus.


    Final point, about 100 years ago the swedish scientists who first identified CO2 as one of the gases responsible for the greenhouse effect initially proposed burning coal seams to increase the CO2 levels and warm icy Sweden.

  • True_Liberal: that type of argument works better if you can show that the substitute for R-12 and R-22 has a patent expiration in the future.


  • True_Liberal

    If you would like to learn more about why CFC's R-12 & R-22 have been phased out, it might be instructive to look up the patent expiration dates on these chemicals.

  • Bracken, I don't think we have enough high quality data to even know where we are right now. I suspect that we've opened our eyes in the past 3 decades with ways to measure these things and gotten scared. I also suspect that many scientists have too healthy an interest in the politics, particularly left-wing politics. Cicerone certainly wasn't and isn't shy about his leanings, as a Professor and Chancellor at UC Irvine, and as President of the National Academy of Sciences. I haven't seen a rebuttal of Crichton's 20th century chronology of really stupid paths the scientists have led us down. You'd think if this was really a super serial emergency, that the philosophers might make a point of rebutting that or explaining why times are different now.


    Any solution either has to make carbon energy more expensive or has to effectively ration it. There is no way around that. Our population will grow 60% to half a billion sometime this century. Assuming we're the source of these emissions, that means individuals must cut back 50% just to keep the status quo, which wouldn't do much to help global warming. Nevermind India, China, South America, Africa in 20 years, etc.


    The final point is... It's 55° outside in the late evening in SoCal. This cold weather makes my knees ache. If it were 60° outside right now, I'd still be chilly, but a lot more comfortable. I think we ought to have the debate about how much global warming we would like. If things get past there, maybe we let the totalitarians fix it for us. 2°C +/- 90% over a century doesn't hit that threshold. When you jack up gas prices over $5 to pay for mitigation or start taking people's SUVs away, expect that attitude to become widespread in the United States. When you tell developing countries that they can't aspire to the wealth we have, expect worse. Is it worth starting WW3 over a couple degrees? Could easily happen...

  • Kevin

    Bracken,


    In reference to John's mention of the Science magazine survey, you said:

    "the survey you are refering to was commission by the editorial board of Science. I don't think that the survey has any real significance."


    I would beg to differ. I have seen the article by Oreskes brought up on numerous occasions when they wish to assert that "the science is settled" in regards to man-made global warming,

  • Bracken

    Brad,


    The CFC level are diminishing and the models are predicted to improve in the next 50 years. here is a link

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/10504...>
    The arctic ozone hole has improved somewhat.


    Computers have advance considerably since the 1980's so has computer modelling. I don't defend Sagan.


    And yes i am familiar with the cooling effects of the Pinatubo eruption. i have also read papers on the isotope fractionation studies on sediments cores, ice cores and tree cores that serve as a proxy for historic temperature records.


    The current models suggest that the US may end up losing in most global warming scenerios. Canada might comes out ahead.


    So Brad are you in favor of action or inaction on CO2 levels, its not clear from your prior posts.

  • joan

    Scientist "are not competent to forecast the economic consequences of such warming or to suggest what should be done in response. When they try to do so they are not acting as scientists but as political advocates."


    In the above statement you could replace the word scientist with economist and it would still be a true statement. You could then replace warming with most policy choices that is faced by our society and it would still be true.

  • Bracken, You say that "the CFC regulations have been a success". This is absurd. My own lecture notes from that course with Cicerone and Rowland indicate that we won't know how successful they are for 50 - 100 years, as CFCs and other chlorine chemicals do not readily break up in the upper atmosphere (according to their models of the time). The Antarctic ozone hole didn't do so great this year, for example:


    http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/hotitems/storyDetail_org.php?sid=3752


    One of the biggest problems with the ozone story I saw at the time is that it relied on historical data from ice core air samples, much as today's global warming story does. We can't go back 100 years and measure average global temperature. So we rely on pockets of air stuck in ice cores to get our data. I wouldn't be surprised if 100 years from now, we see a moderate warming trend, but also see that much of our alarm was caused by finally being able to measure in real-time what has been going on for millions of years. Or 100 years from now, we see a seasonal ozone hole over Antarctica that fluctuates from year to year. The rapid expansion of the ozone hole noted as CFCs became popular may have been nothing but noise in the data.


    To put the modeling ability of atmospheric scientists of the late 80s into perspective... No less a scientific luminary than Carl Sagan warned that the oil fires from the first Gulf War would cause "nuclear winter" over the Gulf region. In actuality, there was a lot of smoke and some dazzling sunsets.


    Lastly Bracken... DId anyone bother to tell the volcanoes about the Montreal Protocol? Do you have any idea why I'm asking that?

  • "How can that be? No one I know voted for Nixon!"

    -- Kael


    "I have not read any recent scientific articles that dispute the presence of global warming."

    -- Bracken


    Another textbook case of confirmation bias?


    Also, as I recall, the ozone hole "problems" had been documented well before the dramatic rise in CFC use (by some guy named Dobson, obviously a pro-CFC hack ;) ), but the popularity of CFC regulations came after DuPont had discovered a commercial replacement for them as propellant. Another textbook case of rent seeking?


    At the rate this thread is going, I predict an example of publication bias.

  • Bracken

    Geoffrey,


    how about an example of the detrimental economic effects??




    I don't think that the trade off is necessarily detrimental. I would gladly substitute a carbon tax on energy consumption for a drop in income tax. Higher energy costs would also spur energy replacement, substitution and conservation measures that will have to come eventually to replace declining US oil production. Given that the US imports 60% of its oil, taxing oil might send the price of oil down reducing the oil revenues that is directly supporting islamic terrorists from Iran, Saudi Arabia etc.


    We could potentially send corrupt/despotic governments such as the Saudi, Iranian, Venezualian and Russian oil producers into the poor house by developing cheap renewable biofuels.


    Decreased income taxes, lower terrorist funding, increased technology innovations and lower CO2 output is a win-win.





  • Geoffrey Brand

    Bracken..


    My above somewhat tongue in cheek comment aside..


    I, nor do I think others here, think that no environmental laws are appropriate,

    Nor do I think that you can only have self regulation of fossil fuel consumers (individuals or companies)


    However, I was just trying to reiterate the main point of the post..


    Any policy requires tradeoffs..


    Even if the high end of the estimates of temperature increases occurs..

    Current proposals for government intervention in the economy to combat global warming may cause more harm than any benefits..(I think that the probability is very high given the historical economic record)..


    Surely the topic needs to be discussed..

    But sadly the question doesn’t even enter most global warming advocate’s minds



  • Bracken

    Brad,


    The CFC regulations have been a success, they are good example of how governments can intervene to solve a problem. As you know the CFC science was well established. The elimination of CFC's in general use lead to significant improvement in the ozone layer, the ozone hole have significantly diminished. This was a very serious problem the was dealt with responsibly. The CFC were basically non-toxic to humans there was no reason for an individual company or industry to stop using CFC without a government mandate.


    Another point in the case of CFC, many industries warned against dire economic consequences upon banning CFCs, which didn't occur.




    Anon & Geoffrey,


    Liberal economic policies that allow industries to do as they wish and expect self-regulation to take place organically simply wont work on issues of polution or environmental protection.


    For example the early chemical industry dumped mercury, sulfuric acid, lead, and a slew of different contaminants into the air and water. Without regulations they would still be disposing of wastes in cheapest way possible without regard for future consequences.


    John,


    Science magazine turns down over 90% of all submission, the survey you are refering to was commission by the editorial board of Science. I don't think that the survey has any real significance. What I think matters is the hard science being published on ocean temperatures, ocean pH, glacier changes, ocean levels, atomospheric warming, historic temperature data, solar albido, etc. the amount of data coming from a variety of disciplines is staggering.

  • Historically, you cannot divorce scientists from politics. Michael Crichton documents a whole century of this in the afterword to State of Fear. You also cannot divorce the politicians from their science. Witness Al Gore, who is in layman's terms an expert on global warming now.


    I see this global warming thing very similar to CFCs from two decades ago. As an undergraduate at UC Irvine, I was privileged to take a physical sciences intro course from Ralph Cicerone and Sherwood Rowland. They eventually won a Nobel prize for their work confirming that CFCs could destroy ozone. Their conclusion was so alarming in the late 1980s that Reagan and Thatcher immediately saw the need to sign onto the Montreal Protocol eliminating this popular class of chemicals. Eliminating, wholesale banning, not just regulating or capping or taxing. Elimination of CFCs caused all sorts of reengineering of products, black markets in automotive freon, and arguable may have been a contributing factor to the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia. How? The original tank foam was CFC based and they never had foam loss incidents with that formula. The new non-CFC foam has had a tendency to fragment and break away unlike its predecessor. Of course, in a system that complex there are all sorts of related and unrelated shortcomings that led to the disaster, but this is one area that wasn't a problem when CFCs were ok.


    Back to Cicerone and Rowland... This was in a physical sciences breadth class. Rowland would get up and explain the chemistry. It was pretty bland and mostly apolitical. Then Cicerone would get up and whip the sorority girls into a frenzy about how their kids would all have skin cancer and they'd die horrible deaths, and it might even have been too late that they discovered the CFC link and got the world to act. Seeing this routine made me skeptical about the ability of science to just do science and stay out of economics or politics. I don't in any way doubt their sincerity, but I doubt their objectivity and I doubt their sense of proportion and relative importance. I also think psychology and sociology have something to contribute to the debate, as people just seem to want more doom and gloom than there really is.


    And more to the point. If the United States government, with all its might, and the UN, with all its good intentions, can't bring peace to the Middle East, what makes anyone think they could manage mitigation of an impending worldwide climate catastrophe?

  • I think Sheldon Richman and Bruce Johnsen raise interesting arguments for the debate on the science and remedies for global warming. What I didn't agree with was, in particular, Johnsen's position that scientists studying climate change should be prohibited from commenting on economic impacts because they are "they are not competent to forecast the economic consequences of such warming or to suggest what should be done in response". That sounds more like a parochial defence of his own speciality in economics (and perhaps referring to the debate of whether economics is itself a science) rather than a reasoned critique of the impact studies that offend him. A less eloquent way of expressing what I'm trying to say is that he sounds like he's defending his turf rather than defending his ideas.

  • Trumpit

    One must address the root of the problem: there are too few billionaires in the world. It's a well know fact that billionaires have trouble spending their vast wealth. Imagine the health problems if they were to convert their billions into paper money and set fire to it. You have to admit, the smoke cloud would at least cause eye irritation to those in the proximity of the bonfire. Whether the polar caps would melt any more as a result, is a debatable point. You are not really rich until you can smoke your money.


    Back to my main point. If the ratio of billionaires to the rest of us were 1:1 then the rest of us would be forced to graze on selenium grass causing blind staggers and eventual death due to a lethal dose of selenium. Since 50% of the population would die, the driving population, as well as CO2 emissions, would drop precipitously. All efforts must be made to add to the ranks of billionaires.


    You may be wondering just how these new billionaires will come into existence. Well, yes, some will have made their money by seriously ravaging the small remaining unravaged-by-humans portions of the earth's surface, such as what is left of the Amazon rainforest. I tell you not to worry about it! Where the rainforest once was, we can plant more selenium grass to feed, and kill off, the rest of the non-billioniares.

  • Geoffrey Brand

    Reply to Bracken above..

    In addition...


    Given the overwelming historical evidence and a large consensus of economists..


    I urge all to read up on the negative consequences of increased government control in the economy rather than rely on misinformed climate scientists..

  • anon

    Whoops, that should be "people should keep their politics separate from their science."

  • anon

    Bracken,


    Your post is a perfect illustration of the problem that Don is getting at. Nowhere in his post does he deny that global warming is a reality. Rather, he cites as "absolutely correct" an argument that says, in short, people should keep their politics separate from your science. In other words, just because one doesn't agree with proposed statist solutions, that doesn't mean global warming isn't a reality.


    The corollary, of course, is that just because you believe in global warming doesn't mean you have to accept statist solutions to the problem. Your post, however, assumes that criticism of the later can only be premised on denial of the former.

  • Bracken

    If you read the top scientific journals (Science, Nature, PNAS, etc.)

    the issue is clearly settled.


    The top National Science Academies have made statements on this issue pointing out that global warming is a real and significant problem that needs to be addressed.


    I have not read any recent scientfic articles that dispute the presence of global warming. In the past several years numerous papers have come out in the journals Science and Nature that paint a very bleak picture. There is a very strong scientific consensus that wasn't present 10 years ago that global warming is a serious problem.


    I urge you to actually read the literature, rather than quote misinformed economists and lawyers.

  • Valuable points.


    I think it is disgraceful the way that the scientific research concerning global warming has been tightly bound to a very specific, party political (command economy style) agenda.


    This "Al Gore" type argument has many steps: 1. there is global warming, 2. it is caused by human generated CO2, 3. the effects are going to be dangerous and expenisve, 4. these effects (which built up over centuries or decades) can be relatively quickly and significantly diminished or stopped or reversed by reducing the CO2 levels which have caused the rise, 5. this reduction needs to be achieved by reducing emissions (and not by researching technologies etc to sequester CO2), 6. this reduction should be achieved by central planning (rather than market forces), 7. this central planning must come from a left-of-centre government...


    I could go on, but my point is that this chain of reasoning can be interrupted at any point.


    In particular, the link between the global warming issue and leftist statist governments and policies is so flimsy that liberals are (IMO) making a big strategic error in pushing the issue in the partisan fashion that is the current norm.

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