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It's not related to the liquidation of financial assets by Boomers.

Like I said, the peak in the payroll tax surplus is a marker for a rapid increase in the number of people who stop accumulating and start liquidating, and I'm assuming here that no one retires before 65, which isn't true at all.

As I said before, the large bulge of Boomers are currently aged 44 to 54. The early Boomers do, as you point out, dwarf the pre-Boomer adults who were born from 1930 to 1945. But that group is only 2 percent larger than the group which followed the Baby Boomers:

Average Annual U.S. Births

I'm not sure what these numbers are supposed to show, but you're ignoring half the story. The number of births per year flattens out, because the birth rate falls. If the birth rate hadn't fallen, the number of births per year would have risen. But that's only half the story. The other half is mortality and life expectancy. Mortality at every age also fell in the twentieth century. The people born in the early in the century didn't live as long as the people born later. Put another way, more people at every age survived each year. More infants survived their first year. More one year olds survived to become two years old and so on.

http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/Animation/pyramid.html

Hold your cursor over the 65-69 age group and watch what happens in 2010.

And look here:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T3.html

Estimated U.S. population between 65 and 69

2000…..9,436
2001…..9,411
2002…..9,487
2003…..9,685
2004…..9,928
2005…10,086
2006…10,350
2007…10,721
2008…11,328
2009…11,758
2010…12,159
2011…12,411
2012…13,503
2013…14,040
2014…14,705
2015…15,410
2016…16,208
2017…16,287
2018…16,650
2019…17,106
2020…17,598

The rapid increase is starting now.

Although a few adults begin saving for retirement earlier, most wait until their mid 30's and 40's. Savings amounts and rates increase as workers increase earnings in their 50's, at the same time most stop supporting children.

That's right. Boomers are between 43 and 63. They're all in the peak saving years already. Their demand for assets has peaked. Now, they start selling. They don't wait until they die. They start selling when they start retiring.

As the early Boomers retire over the next ten years, their gradual liquidation of assets will be easily matched by the higher accumulation rates of two aging groups:

The way the accumulation of early boomers easily matched the gradual liquidty of assets by their predecessors?

It didn't match. That's what's changing. You want me to believe that nothing changes in this period, but I look at these population figures, and I see a number increase much more rapidly over a decade than it increases in the previous decade. The ratio of buyers to sellers rises.

- the much larger late Boomer population; and

- the equally large (compared to early Boomers) population that immediately followed the Boomers.

Right. Buyers and sellers are much more nearly balanced compared with the past. That's what's changing. Of course, every asset sold by a boomer will find a buyer. Markets always clear, but the market is changing.

It is not until 11 to 22 years from now – as I said before – that liquidation of financial assets could become a noticeable phenomenon. That's when the real Boomer bulge starts retiring in large numbers.

11 years from now, many boomers will already have joined the increasing number of people who stop buying and simultaneously start selling. 22 years from now, all of the boomers are sellers. They still find buyers, but the line at the checkout is shorter. You're telling me that the change only happens then?