Seeing Past the Chicken Littles

oh my.

bbc news: US Jobs data gives positive shock

Money quote?

"It's a positive, but I don't think it'll be a blowout positive."

though, this is a close second:

"Expect much weaker headlines in May," he warned.

--Pierre Ellis, Decision Economics in New York.

Now...Dr. Ellis graduated from Chicago, but he is in the business of selling his economic expertise. Is it overly cynical for me to believe that he's going to tend to be negative in order to push up his necessity? Hmm...

What we need is stronger headlines.

Hasn't the sky already fallen?

And in Johnny Nash-like fashion, I can see clearly now that it (supposedly/alledgedly) has.

The last paragraph says it all.

Fortunately, people get tired of pessimism and get on with life. Unfortunately, when the MSM catastrophizes every non-event critical problems are sidelined.

Journalists are stupid by definition.

The implications of this are manifold, most notably the selection bias towards unfounded negative headlines (which sell, because negativity is the laziest of emotive “thought”, even tho moronic, insipid newspaper managers [who used to be journalists] haven’t yet figured out they’re doomed no matter what they print) and the ensuing race toward most catastrophic “expert” opinion. Hence, we’re in a depression (I’ve read that several times recently – laughable). We are all dead in the long run, too.

Is that stupid? Absolutely.

So is the flip side: today’s better-than-expected employment report was good for a 100+ point runup on Dow futures pre-market, and it was a very positive open.

That gradually faded as traders sold into the rally, and the market closed mixed. Apparently – as would be written by those with infinite-precision inaccuracy – they remembered that the employment figures have been historically inaccurate over the past 3 years.

Equities markets have predicted 10 of the past 6 recessions or something. Pessimism easily spreads.

The point is I’ll never call the bottom, and you won’t either. You also won’t concurrently digest and process leading, lagging, and contemporaneous economic data in a real-time economic paradigm; journalists sure as hell won’t do this, as they lack the mental capacity to do so. The accurate picture is a product of (empirical) history and thoughtful analysis.

The Chief says to his boy: "Son. Go to the Wise-man who lives atop of that mountain and ask him what kind of winter we will have."

The boys runs. Climbs. He finds him and asks the question. The Wise-man looks into the distance and says: "I think it's going to be a cold winter".

The boy runs back down with the news. The Chief orders every capable men to go and fetch wood for the cold winter that is coming.

After a while the Chief is worried. "Son go back to the mountain and this time ask the Wise-man: Is it going to be just cold or actually 'unusually' cold".

The boy runs. The Wise-man looks into the distance. Answer: 'Unusually' cold. The Chief orders young and old and all capable women to go out and fetch all possible wood from the forest.

After a while the Chief is again worried. "Son. One last time go to the mountain and ask what exactly does he mean by 'unusually' cold, does he mean 'glacially', 'blizzardly' cold, what???"

The boy huffs and puffs up the slope. Exhausted he asks the question. The Wise-man looks into the distance and says "All of those things. Glacially, blizzardly, the coldest winter ever, since the Great Winter Freeze of ancestral memory that happened a thousand moons ago when our people had taken too many liberties and disrespected the gods, and they were punished."

The boy is dumbfounded. He timidly asks "Wise-man why is it that with each new question your predictions get more and more terrible, what do you see in the big sky, what tragedies await us".

And the Wise-man. "Kiddo, it doesn't take much wisdom to know something's afoot when every person in the villages is busy collecting firewood!".

Why are news agencies into the bad news business? Duh! Psychologists have long since known that x amount of loss feels twice as bad as x amount of gain.

It's easy for the people who post on this blog(usually rich white Republicans) to poo-poo other people's justified angst at their economic malaise.

/Muirdiotese

It's the Chicken Bigs coming home to roost that worry me. The love affair with debt on both sides the Atlantic is so unlike our parents' attitude.

FreedomLover:

In the words of The Hitch Hiker's Guide, "Everyone was rich and nobody was poor. At least, nobody who mattered."

Many a truth is spoken in jest. We should read more comedy!

Why are news agencies into the bad news business?

The fear response is a fundamental survival mechanism. When danger threatens, a quick response is called for.

Unfortunately, in our new world, while we have handled survival, we haven't been able to do much about our biological heritage.

Even fictional danger provokes the fear response and proves quite handy in manipulating people for monetary and/or political gain.

There must be hope because even my dyed-in-the-wool liberal (but lovable) New York State mother in law has been complaining lately about the news trying to paint the economy as worse than it really is.

"Why are they doing that?" was her question to me. "They love to irritate you," was my answer.

I would very much like to hear proposals for what the opposite of a “chicken little” might be called since we have clearly suffered as much from them too over the years.

pk...what's clear about it?

"I would very much like to hear proposals for what the opposite of a “chicken little” might be called since we have clearly suffered as much from them too over the years. -Per Kurowski"

In California we call 'em real estate agents.

Maximus,

You made my evening. LOL Tks.

Does anyone know what the devil P.K. is referring to? Too much optimism? Too much happiness in the fact that more people live in better conditions than any other time in history?

Is he talking about speculators, those dastardly fellows who buy into an industry because they expect it to take off shortly? Anyone?

Bush is the opposite of chicken little. He's always trying false optimism, based on nothing. Has he EVER called for American to save money instead of spend?

One truly amazing fact about the article is that it's in the Denver Post. The Post isn't as Leftist as the New York/LA Times, but it's certainly no Wall Street Journal, either.