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Did Roubini Get It Right?
Posted By Don Boudreaux On March 21, 2009 @ 8:29 am In Fooled by Randomness | Comments Disabled
Here's a letter that I sent several days ago to the Washington Post:
Roubini has predicted economic Armageddon for
years now, so he did not accurately predict the timing of this downturn
unless you regard incessantly screaming "we're doomed" to be an
accurate prediction. And he got important details wrong. For example,
as recently as 2005 Roubini warned  that the "hard landing" would occur
because foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets would start to
diversify out of these assets, leading (in his words) "to a sharp fall
in the value of the U.S. dollar [and] significantly higher U.S.
long-term interest rates."* None of these things has happened.
Donald J. Boudreaux
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URLs in this post:
 Conversation With Nassim Nicholas Taleb: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/12/AR2009031202181.html
 as recently as 2005 Roubini warned: http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB111202112287190860,00.html
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