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	<title>Comments on: Regressive Thinking about Trade</title>
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	<link>http://cafehayek.com/2009/05/regressive-thinking-about-trade.html</link>
	<description>where orders emerge</description>
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		<title>By: Sam Grove</title>
		<link>http://cafehayek.com/2009/05/regressive-thinking-about-trade.html/comment-page-1#comment-49274</link>
		<dc:creator>Sam Grove</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 15:45:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://localhost/wordpress/?p=2264#comment-49274</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;How does one distinguish between a bubble and real economic growth, especially if valuations are based on a floating reference?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;How does one distinguish between the effects of the popping and appropriate responses to the discovery of inflated valuations?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How does one distinguish between a bubble and real economic growth, especially if valuations are based on a floating reference?</p>
<p>How does one distinguish between the effects of the popping and appropriate responses to the discovery of inflated valuations?</p>
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		<title>By: Sam Grove</title>
		<link>http://cafehayek.com/2009/05/regressive-thinking-about-trade.html/comment-page-1#comment-49273</link>
		<dc:creator>Sam Grove</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:59:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://localhost/wordpress/?p=2264#comment-49273</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Correction: Their assets aren&#039;t worth a third of their previous valuation.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;You&#039;re really having a hard time internalizing what I&#039;m saying, don&#039;t you?&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;No, I&#039;m just having a hard time communicating my point to you. If you really think that assets are worth a third less than they were before then I think I&#039;m unable to express what I mean by &quot;economic fundamentals&quot;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The dollar valuation is meaningless except in a relative sense. Whatever REAL assets people have title to, the fundamental value of these assets is not known until they trade them for whatever they consume.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;They may not be worth even a third less than before. Many of them may actually be worthless.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The valuation of these assets may have dropped to a third, but the real question is why they were valued at 3X the current valuation.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Austrian theory suggests that the reason these assets were overvalued is because credit expansion by the FED substituted speculative value for real economic growth.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Correction: Their assets aren&#39;t worth a third of their previous valuation.</p>
<p><i>You&#39;re really having a hard time internalizing what I&#39;m saying, don&#39;t you?</i></p>
<p>No, I&#39;m just having a hard time communicating my point to you. If you really think that assets are worth a third less than they were before then I think I&#39;m unable to express what I mean by &quot;economic fundamentals&quot;.</p>
<p>The dollar valuation is meaningless except in a relative sense. Whatever REAL assets people have title to, the fundamental value of these assets is not known until they trade them for whatever they consume.</p>
<p>They may not be worth even a third less than before. Many of them may actually be worthless.</p>
<p>The valuation of these assets may have dropped to a third, but the real question is why they were valued at 3X the current valuation.</p>
<p>Austrian theory suggests that the reason these assets were overvalued is because credit expansion by the FED substituted speculative value for real economic growth.</p>
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		<title>By: Sam Grove</title>
		<link>http://cafehayek.com/2009/05/regressive-thinking-about-trade.html/comment-page-1#comment-49272</link>
		<dc:creator>Sam Grove</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:46:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://localhost/wordpress/?p=2264#comment-49272</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Well, you answered the last question just above...except that:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;People aren&#039;t buying less because they&#039;re scared (although I&#039;m sure that has made a dent) - it&#039;s because their assets are worth a third of what they were before.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Their assets aren&#039;t worth a third less, they just became aware that their assets had been erroneously valued 3X their real worth. They were never worth 3X.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, you answered the last question just above&#8230;except that:</p>
<p><i>People aren&#39;t buying less because they&#39;re scared (although I&#39;m sure that has made a dent) &#8211; it&#39;s because their assets are worth a third of what they were before.</i></p>
<p>Their assets aren&#39;t worth a third less, they just became aware that their assets had been erroneously valued 3X their real worth. They were never worth 3X.</p>
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		<title>By: Daniel Kuehn</title>
		<link>http://cafehayek.com/2009/05/regressive-thinking-about-trade.html/comment-page-1#comment-49271</link>
		<dc:creator>Daniel Kuehn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:07:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://localhost/wordpress/?p=2264#comment-49271</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Sam Grove -&lt;br /&gt;
RE: &quot;You have a really gray view of the assumptions. Just thought I&#039;d say that.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Right... isn&#039;t that always the best way to approach assumptions rather than hang too much on any single assumption?&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;RE: &quot;The bubble popping may have caused a shock to people who thought everything was fine, but the popping of the bubble is not the fundamental problem, not the fundamental issue.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;To reiterate, I agree.  I have always agreed.  Just because I think ABCT, which I know is what you&#039;re getting at, is weak doesn&#039;t mean I don&#039;t agree that the pop itself isn&#039;t eveything.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;RE: &quot;You seem to be thinking that the conditions that have so far culminated in the bubble popping have been superseded as a problem by the psychological effects of the popping on consumer behavior.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;No, no no.  It&#039;s not a psychological effect - nobody&#039;s saying it is - it&#039;s a real effect.  People aren&#039;t buying less because they&#039;re scared (although I&#039;m sure that has made a dent) - it&#039;s because their assets are worth a third of what they were before.  And that REAL drop in consumption reduces job security, which in turn does it&#039;s part to reduce consumption of those who had low wages and no assets to begin with, but now also have a reason to cut back because their employers are potentially in trouble.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;RE: &quot;Tell me, what is the fundamental economic problem facing U.S. residents?&quot;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Again?!?!?!?!  You&#039;re really having a hard time internalizing what I&#039;m saying, don&#039;t you?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sam Grove -<br />
RE: &quot;You have a really gray view of the assumptions. Just thought I&#39;d say that.&quot;</p>
<p>Right&#8230; isn&#39;t that always the best way to approach assumptions rather than hang too much on any single assumption?</p>
<p>RE: &quot;The bubble popping may have caused a shock to people who thought everything was fine, but the popping of the bubble is not the fundamental problem, not the fundamental issue.&quot;</p>
<p>To reiterate, I agree.  I have always agreed.  Just because I think ABCT, which I know is what you&#39;re getting at, is weak doesn&#39;t mean I don&#39;t agree that the pop itself isn&#39;t eveything.</p>
<p>RE: &quot;You seem to be thinking that the conditions that have so far culminated in the bubble popping have been superseded as a problem by the psychological effects of the popping on consumer behavior.&quot;</p>
<p>No, no no.  It&#39;s not a psychological effect &#8211; nobody&#39;s saying it is &#8211; it&#39;s a real effect.  People aren&#39;t buying less because they&#39;re scared (although I&#39;m sure that has made a dent) &#8211; it&#39;s because their assets are worth a third of what they were before.  And that REAL drop in consumption reduces job security, which in turn does it&#39;s part to reduce consumption of those who had low wages and no assets to begin with, but now also have a reason to cut back because their employers are potentially in trouble.</p>
<p>RE: &quot;Tell me, what is the fundamental economic problem facing U.S. residents?&quot;</p>
<p>Again?!?!?!?!  You&#39;re really having a hard time internalizing what I&#39;m saying, don&#39;t you?</p>
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		<title>By: Sam Grove</title>
		<link>http://cafehayek.com/2009/05/regressive-thinking-about-trade.html/comment-page-1#comment-49270</link>
		<dc:creator>Sam Grove</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:55:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://localhost/wordpress/?p=2264#comment-49270</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Damn, it didn&#039;t post.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;You have a really gray view of the assumptions. Just thought I&#039;d say that.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The bubble popping may have caused a shock to people who thought everything was fine, but the popping of the bubble is not the fundamental problem, not the fundamental issue.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;You seem to be thinking that the conditions that have so far culminated in the bubble popping have been superseded as a problem by the psychological effects of the popping on consumer behavior.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;This impact is a political problem, not the real economic problem.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Tell me, what is the fundamental economic problem facing U.S. residents?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Damn, it didn&#39;t post.</p>
<p>You have a really gray view of the assumptions. Just thought I&#39;d say that.</p>
<p>The bubble popping may have caused a shock to people who thought everything was fine, but the popping of the bubble is not the fundamental problem, not the fundamental issue.</p>
<p>You seem to be thinking that the conditions that have so far culminated in the bubble popping have been superseded as a problem by the psychological effects of the popping on consumer behavior.</p>
<p>This impact is a political problem, not the real economic problem.</p>
<p>Tell me, what is the fundamental economic problem facing U.S. residents?</p>
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