A Nobel prediction

by Russ Roberts on October 11, 2009

An interesting pairing for tomorrow’s prize would be Robert Shiller and Nassim Taleb. Wouldn’t that be entertaining? Could Taleb accept it? He has denigrated the prize in the past. But given the recent trend toward topical prizes, those two would be perfect for the committee. My next prediction would be Barro and Romer as a balancing against last year’s prize.

Be Sociable, Share!

Comments

12 comments Share

{ 12 comments }

Anonymous October 12, 2009 at 12:54 am

Barro and Romer would be excellent choices.

I’d still like to see Tullock, but that is dreaming.

Pingry October 12, 2009 at 1:02 am

I would like to see John Taylor get it…then maybe Mark Gertler

ben October 12, 2009 at 1:09 am

My next prediction would be Barro and Romer as a balancing against last year’s prize.

Balancing in what sense? Integrity I presume?

AdamGurri October 12, 2009 at 1:17 am

Well, Hayek accepted it and just gave a speech about how there shouldn’t be a Nobel Prize in “Economic Science”. Taleb could always do the same.

Anonymous October 12, 2009 at 1:53 am

Given the hotness of the climate change debate (sorry for the pub) my money’s on Nordhaus.

Greg Ransom October 12, 2009 at 2:56 am

Give it to WILLIAM WHITE of the Bank of International Settlements.

The man warned Greenspan and the other central bankers of the current crisis IN PERSON and FOUR YEARS before it broke.

Has there EVER been a more significant prediction in economic science — at least since Friedrich Hayek predicted the bust of the Great Depression?

Greg Ransom October 12, 2009 at 2:58 am

While ivory tower economists spend there time “predicting” who will be the next Nobel Prize winner for ~~mathematics~~ economics, William White predicted the current economic bust, in a detailed fashion. And White did it publicly, with Alan Greenspan and the world’s central bankers in his audience.

K.D. October 12, 2009 at 3:45 am

Speaking of FED chairmen, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Volker win.

Anonymous October 12, 2009 at 7:39 am

There has been a clear trend of late. Careful analysis makes this the most likely next winner.

Anonymous October 12, 2009 at 12:31 pm

Hmmm… I’m thinking Ostrom and Williamson

Lionel from France October 12, 2009 at 1:52 pm

Russ,
I totally disagree with your choice of Taleb. All he tells us was simply known long to all or almost all statisticians and mathematicians. P. Levy or B. Mandelbrot already told us the same in scientific texts in which Taleb draws significantly. What is his original contribution? Nothing new with him! He is just a talented popularizer! Not sufficient to win the Nobel prize, don’t you think?