Airplane crashes and financial crashes

by Russ Roberts on November 16, 2009

in Financial Markets

This is the opening of my essay that I blogged on last week, “How Little We Know,” on the hopes for financial reform:

When an airplane crashes, expert investigators probe the cause of the crash. Their analysis can lead to changes in aircraft design, flight procedures, and regulations in hopes of reducing the likelihood of a crash in the future. The growth of knowledge in the airline industry has been extremely productive. Between 1989 and 2008, there was a seven-fold reduction in the probability of a fatal crash.

There is a natural tendency for economists (and even for normal people) to presume that similar analytical techniques can be applied to financial crashes. After all, economists presumably know more than we did in the past. We have ever more data and ever more sophisticated techniques for analyzing the data. Yet there is no evidence to suggest that financial market regulation is more effective than in the past. If anything, the opposite appears to be the case.

You can download it here at The Economists’ Voice. I think it requires an institutional subscription, but evidently astute readers have found ways to get it.

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{ 62 comments }

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 5:06 pm

The distinction to be made is between complex and complicated. Airplanes, cars, computers, and other intentionally designed things follow laws of physics and their designs, however, complicated, can be nearly fully understood. Complex orders, such as markets, however, are neither designed nor do they come close to being fully understood–at least not in a way that is analogous to the depth of understanding of, say, a motor.

I fear that the analogy you use will tempt both economists and non-economists into believing that, given enough effort or given sufficiently smart experts, complex order can be fully understood and then controlled via smart regulation.

Metre November 16, 2009 at 5:26 pm

The economy is more analogous to weather than it is to an airplane. The weather obeys the laws of physics but is so complex that it resists our best efforts to predict it beyond a few days in advance. But in weather, attempts are made to measure important parameters world-wide: temperature, precipitation, amount of sunlight, etc. These measurements are then fed into computer odels to help make predictions. Do economists have metrics to help them understand the state of the economy? Do they have models that make predictions based on these measurements? It would be nice if economics had some predictive capability, rather than being a forensic science.

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 6:33 pm

Weather might indeed be a better analogy.

There is predictive capability in economics (see, e.g., Human Action, by Mises, not to mention the fortunes amassed by those who understand principles of economics), but too many economists ignore the principles of economics when they provide policy prescriptions.

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” — F.A. Hayek, The Fatal Conceit

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 5:47 pm

> astute readers have found ways to get it.

Can’t find it. A small tip would be appreciated ;-)

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 6:30 pm

Follow Russ’s link. On the right is a link that says “download.” It will allow you to download as a guest. Select non-profit. Make up an institution name. Voila!

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 7:45 pm

Yep, that’ll do it. Thanks

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 5:50 pm

More variables. A bolt on an airplane wing can’t make a million decisions every day. That’s exactly what people do, thus controlling people is impossible. And the more people one tries to control, the more impossible the task and that’s the goal of all government economic policy. I cannot muster any respect for economists who doesn’t understand this basic truth.

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 11:56 pm

that’ll teach me to pop off a quick post in the middle of the day. Sorry for the grammatical errors. Yikes.

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 8:59 pm

There is plenty of evidence to suggest markets do better with good regulation.

Just look to Canada. Their banks were better regulated and had none of the major problems our deregulated banks did.

Hell I could solve most of the economies problems in 5 easy steps.

1) Overhaul lobbying/ have publically fuinded elections
2) have a transaction tax on all trades
3) Increase the tax rate to 80% on all income greater then $1 million dollars
4) Make complex financal products illegal.
5) deny corporate personhood

Overpaid CEO’s and Wall Street jack asses will now have to produce something of value comparable to their earnings because unregulated markets are incompetant at meatingout worth in proportion to value.

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 11:05 pm

With brilliance such as this, why are you wasting your valuable time here?

Anonymous November 16, 2009 at 11:57 pm

Jackass is one word, Jackass.

MWG November 17, 2009 at 4:24 am

LMAO

muirgeo November 17, 2009 at 7:34 am

Yeah and jack assess is two words. Jack asses.

MWG November 17, 2009 at 11:37 pm
Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 12:09 am

Good one, Michael. And it’s not as draconian as it appears in your fine post either.

Every new regulatory rule raises a million questions. We ask for clarification from the regulator. When the regulator gets back to us (after a few weeks or months – what’s the hurry? it’s not like we have to actually do business and comply or anything), the answer doesn’t really answer the original question well, but raises 15 more questions. And on it goes.

The truth is that the regulator wants to make the rules and the “clarifications” of those rules as fuzzy as possible. That way, companies will be forced to interpret the rules themselves and regulators will have enough leeway to haul companies in for supposed violations when it’s time to create a lot of media hoopla to justify the regulatory body’s existence to the taxpaying public.

Firms are accused of “ignoring” or “skirting” regulation. In fact, they’re just trying to work in a framework of purposely fuzzy rules and that make it impossible for them to predict the consequences of their actions. A new rule is a special kind of hell because there is not even precedent to fall back on.

Yeah, “sound regulation” works really really well.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 2:36 am

Muirduck you fool, after Michael shoved all that up your ass does your fat ass really really hurt? God, fool, how do you do it day after day and still come back and try again?

It would never occur to a freaking idiot like you that perhaps the reason Canadian banking suffered less just might be because they had less regulation and just possibly more intelligent regulation than the USA? Oh my lord, is that possible?

Your track record is that given a choice of two, you will always choose the broken.

muirgeo November 17, 2009 at 7:52 am

“…just possibly more intelligent regulation than the USA? ”

Yeah that’s all I’m suggesting.

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 7:38 pm

Methinks, that’s a great point about the rules being fuzzy. That is exactly what I experienced in producing medical devices under the FDA’s “Good Manufacturing Practices”: fuzzy, vague, ill-defined generalities that were wide-open to many different interpretations.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 12:31 am

Russ,

The FAA and NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) “experts”, on the occassion of the crash of American Eagle 4184 that killed all 68 aboard some year back, concluded that “wing icing” was the cause. This was rather like saying that a bullet is the cause of death if a drive by shooting occurrs. Flight 4184 was in a prolonged “holding pattern” due to traffic congestion on a Friday evening at an airport that allocates landing space on criteria other than profit motive. “Experts” who ignore the pricing of landing slots/times in airplane crashes involving delayed landing risk missing the forest for the trees as the surely did in the sad case of Flight 4184.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 2:04 am

MichaelSmith,

This was a bit long, but it was one of those cases when length was appropriate. Very well done.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 3:33 pm

Thank you sir, and I apologize for the length of that list. That list, incidentally, is only a table of contents for the regulations.

There really is a staggering amount of regulation on the books when you actually look at it.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 2:53 am

Sorry Michael size doesn’t matter.

Repeal of Glass Steagall
Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000
Tax cuts for the wealthy
Free Trade agreements
CEO stock option compensation
Non-enforcement of the Shermann Anti-trust act
A Fed Chairman who declined to enforce regulations
A slew of policies that generally transfered wealth from main street to Wall street.

It’s clear these policies and other libertarian policies have had far more sway since 1980 and the end results are economic colllapse just as they were in 1929 when your big long stupid list of regulations didn’t exist to explain away the collapse.

Not one thing or any group of them in your list can you point to as a causative factor that might explain why the crash occured in 2008 and not in 1970.

You’re simply a denialist and an ideolgue with no good place to hide in the real world.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 3:45 am

I have to agree with muirgeo, at least insofar as “size doesn’t matter”. I’m not sure what the length of this list is supposed to illustrate. I saw a lot of criminal statutes in there (ie – no money laundering or fraud… yes, THAT one is a real infringement on our liberty). Large chunks of it were just definitions. Other chunks I skimmed just outlined court jurisdictions.

I’m not trying to say we have heavy or light legislation in this country – I’m just saying that in an economy as robust and complex as ours, a couple pages of listed reg titles doesn’t mean much of anything. Are you just making the case that the regs are voluminous? Length alone doesn’t tell you anything about how restrictive and distortionary the regulations that are on the books are. You can draft a very short financial regulatory code that can do a lot of damage, or you can have a voluminous regulatory code that requires nothing but a series of banal public disclosures which will certainly raise the costs of doing business (because you have to hire someone to do all that work of putting together all those disclosures), but won’t substantially distort anything in the financial markets.

So what does your big long list tell us, Michael Smith? That you know how to copy and paste and you’re a clever poster? I’m not sure it really tells us much more than that.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 4:36 am

But Yasafi’s “regulation=GOOD – freedom=BAD” resonates with you.Oh, but you’re no socialist.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 4:47 am

That’s exactly why I said “I agree with muirgeo insofar as ‘size doesn’t matter’”, precisely because as a rule of thumb I think regulation=bad and freedom=good and I suspect he doesn’t.

Now… am I totally on board with Cafe Hayek? Of course not – because I can actually conceive of situations where regulation!=bad. But that doesn’t change my rule of thumb.

muirgeo November 17, 2009 at 7:57 am

Good regulation = more freedom

As opposed to the simpleton mantra touted here

Less regulation = more freedom Which is patently false and is why you are paying taxes for Llyod BlankF’s bonus.

MWG November 17, 2009 at 6:47 pm

“Less regulation = more freedom Which is patently false and is why you are paying taxes for Llyod BlankF’s bonus.”

No, our tax $s are going to him because people in power (those YOU want to give more power to) gave it to him. How’s that for simplicity? Moron…

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 3:37 pm

So what does your big long list tell us, Michael Smith?

It tells us that the notion that the U.S. banking system has been deregulated is false — and, as a consequence, it also tells us that the claim that said banking deregulation led to the financial crises is also false.

indianajim November 17, 2009 at 3:45 pm

Isn’t it amazing that Daniel felt the need to ask such a question? MichaelSmith, you have been gracious in not answering with sarcasm and/or astonishment.

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 12:16 am

I agree. Michael is a better person than I am.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 3:45 pm

Well, it tells us that complete deregulation is false, not that deregulation is false. And I’m not sure how it tells us anything about the financial crisis. Presumably if regulation or deregulation had any role in the crisis it was qualitative changes to the regulatory burden that contributed, not the mere existence of regulations. People who say deregulation played a role don’t generally argue “there is no regulation and that caused the crisis”, they say “there is regulation, but the recent repeal of certain provisions in the Glass-Steagall Act contributed to the crisis”. Those are two different statements. Your cut-and-pasting addresses the first, strawman position. It doesn’t speak at all to the second position.I don’t know what the answer is – I don’t know much of anything about financial market regulation or it’s role in the crisis. I do know that copying and pasting regulatory code doesn’t expand my knowledge of it at all.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 10:14 pm

Well, it tells us that complete deregulation is false, not that deregulation is false.

The expression “complete deregulation” is a redundancy. To “deregulate” means to remove regulations — all regulations. To maintain that a “deregulated market” includes cases where a large amount of regulation remains, is to say that a market can be both “deregulated” and “regulated“ at the same time. This is every bit as much of a contradiction as saying a device is both deactivated and activated at the same time — or that a body is both deloused and lice infested at the same time — or that a thing is both de-emphasized and emphasized at the same time.

Properly, then, the burden of including a modifier to clearly express what one is talking about falls with the person who refers to markets where regulation has been reduced but not eliminated. Such markets can only logically be referred to as “partially deregulated” or “somewhat deregulated”, etc.

This is why muirgeo’s description of our banking system as “deregulated” is thoroughly unjustified — and I posted the long list of rules and regulations to highlight the contradiction of calling such a market “deregulated“.

Nor do I accept your claim that the argument being offered by those blaming “deregulation” for this crises amounts to only this: “there is regulation, but the recent repeal of certain provisions in the Glass-Steagall Act contributed to the crisis.” I agree that some individuals are making that argument, but the left is going a lot further.

Muirgeo, for instance, has repeatedly argued here that the last 30 years of our economic history has been “dominated” by a “libertarian philosophy” of “gutting regulations” and expanding economic freedom — a claim that clearly goes well beyond a limited claim about changes in portions of the Glass-Steagall Act.

Indeed, one of the left’s most cherished arguments at the moment is that Alan Greenspan himself has admitted that laissez-faire capitalism has failed and that he was wrong to believe in it.

So pointing out the vast amount of regulation that remains on our banking industry — as an illustration of how far, FAR away we are from any sort of “libertarian” economic policy or “laissez-faire” — is not at all addressing a “straw man”.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 5:05 pm

“I have to agree with muirgeo, at least insofar as “size doesn’t matter”.”

Well that certainly explains a few things…

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 10:31 am

Glass-Steagall was repealled? Does that mean that the FDIC no longer exists? After all, the FDIC was created by Glass-Steagall. Oh wait, or maybe you just have no idea what you’re talking about.

Half of your list has questionable links to the current crisis. The other half is irrelevant.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 3:11 pm

You have no idea what any of those things are or how they work in practice. And neither does your buddy, DK. But, you’re both sure you have the answer to what is “correct” and “good” regulation and what isn’t. Seeing as you’re both ignorant of both finance and financial regulation, I’m sure you think that makes you both experts.

muirgeo November 17, 2009 at 3:36 pm

Yeah and you’re the dope who tried to tell us financial derivatives weren’t a problem. There are plenty of good academic economist and actual people who work in finance on Wall Street from which my opinions are formed.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 7:05 pm

So you admit you don’t form your own opinions…

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 12:07 am

ummm….how do I put this in language you can understand, Muirpid?

Railing against stuff you can’t even begin to wrap your mind around is generally not considered by most people to be “forming an opinion”.

I’m sure looking forward to your snappy, misspelled reply.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 3:26 pm

Not one thing or any group of them in your list can you point to as a causative factor that might explain why the crash occured in 2008 and not in 1970.

I have explained this to you many times, Dr. Muir. Government rules and regulations on the economy are enforced selectively.

The rules against discrmination in lending — for one example — that went into affect many years ago — are enforced selectively according to the whims of whichever brand of statist happen to be in power.

The Clinton and Bush statists — pushed by organizations like ACORN — decided to enforce these regulations stringently. And thus the law against discrimination in lending led to the only thing it could lead to: a great deal of indiscriminate lending — which is the root of this whole mess (though there are obviously other compounding factors).

But I am not here to convince you of anything — for you are clearly beyond persuasion. I only made that post to illustrate the utter nonsense of claiming that our banks had been “deregulated”.

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 12:13 am

Michael, I’ve tried to explain the basics of options to Muirpid about a year an a half ago – right around the time he started frothing at the mouth about them. Got nowhere. Don and Russ also got nowhere on any other subject. In fact, nobody here has ever been able to drill through the muirdiots thick but empty skull.

I do remember once having an exchange where muirdiot seemed to understand. It was an amazing time. He stopped flailing around calling libertarians and republicans stupid and seemed to make a real effort to try to understand something. Of course, after that brief ray of light, he went right back to his stream of consciousness posts as if nothing ever happened. As long as any of your explanations to not fit his narrative (which he is also confused about), you’re screaming into a hurricane. So….good luck.

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 7:30 pm

I understand, Methinks. I’m not commenting in any hope of reaching muirgeo — if you, the men who run this website and the other highly intelligent commenters here can’t get through to him, I certainly don’t expect to either. I’m just trying to counter the effects his comments may have on others that drop by this web site.

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 8:01 pm

Michael,

Good point. I enjoy every one of your comments immensely and if Muirpid’s posts elicit more comments from you, I think I can safely say I’m speaking for many readers here that we are glad.

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 7:28 am

The economic equivalent to a defective bolt on the planes vertical stabilizer are complex financial products. This fact takes far less investigation then most FAA investigations. There is absolutely no need for these products. Get rid of them and this won’t happen again. You want a casino go to Vegas. You want to earn money in finance you’re going to do it by actually being productive and not just a clever jack ass.

indianajim November 17, 2009 at 3:41 pm

This analogy is useless because what is complex is undefined? Complex to a novice is simplicity to a professional. And where does the complexity derive from? If it derives from government regulations, then you may be on to something, but again your loose analogy is just smoke without more specificity.

muirgeo November 17, 2009 at 7:30 am

Oh and regarding airplane crashes and flight safety…thanks to those government FAA bureaucrats that do such a good job. The Fed, the Treasury and the SEC needs similar objective bureaucrats.

muirgeo November 17, 2009 at 7:30 am

Oh and regarding airplane crashes and flight safety…thanks to those government FAA bureaucrats that do such a good job. The Fed, the Treasury and the SEC needs similar objective bureaucrats.

indianajim November 17, 2009 at 3:36 pm

No, as I posted below the NTSB has demonstrated a blindness to the fact that delays kill, delays resulting from NOT allocating landing slot via profit motive. Why thank bureaucrats who are blind to the hazards of allocating scarce landing slots by non-market mechanisms?

Randy November 17, 2009 at 1:48 pm

Great post! Annoying… but great!

Anonymous November 17, 2009 at 10:21 pm

Great points; thanks for making them. Muirgeo does not understand it, but he is setting up the perfect openings for you to make your points with ever greater clarity to anyone interested in reason and evidence (not muirgeo, judging from his comments).

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 3:18 am

Re: “The expression “complete deregulation” is a redundancy. To “deregulate” means to remove regulations — all regulations. ”

That’s an interesting vocabularly lesson. So if we were to wipe two thirds of those regulations off the books, you would say that can’t be legitimately described as “deregulation”?

Anonymous November 20, 2009 at 12:27 am

OK – in response to your question below:

I think (a.) is wholly grammatically accurate, and I’d expect people to point out “but that was a fairly paltry deregulation”. A regulation of the market has been eliminated, therefore there has been deregulation in the market, but the market is not deregulated.

I think (b.) is true and POTENTIALLY misleading if you think the public is dumb as a post. As per my response to (a.), deregulation is an act that has been performed upon the market. Another example: “Joey kicked the ball”, and “the ball has been kicked”. Perfectly acceptable. Now, I say it’s “potentially” misleading because “deregulated” is both an adjective and a past tense verb. In this case it is clearly a past tense verb. If the public is as dumb as a post, they MAY think it is an adjective. But their misunderstanding does not make it inaccurate. I think this is very unlikely. Anyone who actually thinks there are no regulations in the American economy probably isn’t going to be engaging in a discussion about the American economy. Essentially, if you know the definition of “regulation”, you’re probably intelligent enough to know that there are regulations. You have to assume a great deal of stupidity on the part of listeners to argue that they’d be confused about this.

As for (c.) – I think “the market was deregulated” in this sentence is accurate for the same reason I thought (b.) was accurate. The rest of the sentence has absolutely nothing to do with word choice anymore – it’s horrendous analysis and should be criticized on that basis. I don’t see how that extremely poorly reasoned argument has anything to do with accurate word choice. It’s a logical fallacy not a grammatical or linguistic fallacy.

I also want to comment on this statement: “I hold statement “b” to be both false and misleading, because a market cannot be regulated and deregulated at the same time.”

I don’t think that is what (b.) is saying. The market “is” regulated, but it “has been” deregulated. “Deregulated” is an action that has been performed on it in the past, “regulated” is a word that currently describes the market.

As for your “-ate” endings, I’m not sure why “-ate” and “-tion” implies what you’re saying it implies. Another example you guys like: liberate – to free someone. Let’s say you were being held prisoner in a foreign country and the Marines came and broke you out – they “liberated” you. But obviously that doesn’t mean you have complete freedom. You still end up back in the U.S. where you’ve gotta pay taxes and follow all these nasty regulations. You were “liberated” but you weren’t completely “liberated”. There is an implied delimitation as to what you were liberated from, and nobody is dumb enough to here “MichaelSmith was liberated by the Marines today” and think “wow that’s sweet – he’s completely free he doesn’t have to pay taxes anymore!”. No. It’s understood there’s a limited sense in which he is liberated, just like it’s understood that there’s a limited sense in which the market is deregulated.

Anonymous November 20, 2009 at 12:27 am

OK – in response to your question below:

I think (a.) is wholly grammatically accurate, and I’d expect people to point out “but that was a fairly paltry deregulation”. A regulation of the market has been eliminated, therefore there has been deregulation in the market, but the market is not deregulated.

I think (b.) is true and POTENTIALLY misleading if you think the public is dumb as a post. As per my response to (a.), deregulation is an act that has been performed upon the market. Another example: “Joey kicked the ball”, and “the ball has been kicked”. Perfectly acceptable. Now, I say it’s “potentially” misleading because “deregulated” is both an adjective and a past tense verb. In this case it is clearly a past tense verb. If the public is as dumb as a post, they MAY think it is an adjective. But their misunderstanding does not make it inaccurate. I think this is very unlikely. Anyone who actually thinks there are no regulations in the American economy probably isn’t going to be engaging in a discussion about the American economy. Essentially, if you know the definition of “regulation”, you’re probably intelligent enough to know that there are regulations. You have to assume a great deal of stupidity on the part of listeners to argue that they’d be confused about this.

As for (c.) – I think “the market was deregulated” in this sentence is accurate for the same reason I thought (b.) was accurate. The rest of the sentence has absolutely nothing to do with word choice anymore – it’s horrendous analysis and should be criticized on that basis. I don’t see how that extremely poorly reasoned argument has anything to do with accurate word choice. It’s a logical fallacy not a grammatical or linguistic fallacy.

I also want to comment on this statement: “I hold statement “b” to be both false and misleading, because a market cannot be regulated and deregulated at the same time.”

I don’t think that is what (b.) is saying. The market “is” regulated, but it “has been” deregulated. “Deregulated” is an action that has been performed on it in the past, “regulated” is a word that currently describes the market.

As for your “-ate” endings, I’m not sure why “-ate” and “-tion” implies what you’re saying it implies. Another example you guys like: liberate – to free someone. Let’s say you were being held prisoner in a foreign country and the Marines came and broke you out – they “liberated” you. But obviously that doesn’t mean you have complete freedom. You still end up back in the U.S. where you’ve gotta pay taxes and follow all these nasty regulations. You were “liberated” but you weren’t completely “liberated”. There is an implied delimitation as to what you were liberated from, and nobody is dumb enough to here “MichaelSmith was liberated by the Marines today” and think “wow that’s sweet – he’s completely free he doesn’t have to pay taxes anymore!”. No. It’s understood there’s a limited sense in which he is liberated, just like it’s understood that there’s a limited sense in which the market is deregulated.

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 7:25 pm

Correct, I would not consider it legitimate to describe a still-regulated market with the unmodified term, “deregulated”. “Partially deregulated”? Yes. “Largely deregulated”? Perhaps, depending on the extent of the regulations still in place.

But if “deregulated” means any market that has had any amount of regulations removed, then this would mean that a market with 10% of its regulations removed, one with 50% of its regulations removed, and one with 100% of its regulations removed, would all qualify as “deregulated”. Used thusly, “deregulated” can refer to everything from actual laissez-faire markets to those still laboring under heavy regulation — which effectively renders the term meaningless.

The only thing this sort of usage of the term “deregulated” accomplishes is that it permits statists to point to the failures of the still-heavily-regulated “deregulated” markets and claim that such failures prove that capitalism has failed, laissez-faire doesn’t work, etc — which is precisely what muirgeo did at the start of this discussion.

But the simple fact is that the failure of a regulated market proves nothing about the free market.

I’ll offer one more analogy. A man is known to be addicted to both alcohol and cocaine; he enters a detoxification program. He emerges a few weeks later and tells you, “I’m detoxed!” But in fact, he’s still using cocaine.

Was his description of his condition as “detoxed” accurate and honest? No — the most he can honestly claim is to have been partially detoxed. And if the man dies of a cocaine overdose the next day, are you going to buy the argument that his death was caused by the “detoxification”. No!

Yet this is precisely what muirgeo and other leftists are doing regarding the financial crises. Our financial markets are being made sick by regulations. Along the way a few regulations are dropped and the market is declared “detoxed”. But also along the way, the remaining regulations — such as the laws against discrimination in lending — begin to be enforced much more stringently, which makes the market much, much sicker, maybe even terminally sick. And what does the left blame? The “detoxification”!

Such is what comes from letting the left destroy the meaning of words.

Anonymous November 18, 2009 at 7:36 pm

Re: “But if “deregulated” means any market that has had any amount of regulations removed, then this would mean that a market with 10% of its regulations removed, one with 50% of its regulations removed, and one with 100% of its regulations removed, would all qualify as “deregulated”. Used thusly, “deregulated” can refer to everything from actual laissez-faire markets to those still laboring under heavy regulation — which effectively renders the term meaningless.”OK – but now we’re jumbling adjectives and verbs. I was talking about “regulation”. Of course an administration can pursue a policy of “deregulation” and still come out with a “regulated” market that is less “regulated” than the former market. In that sense the market is definitely still “regulated” but you also still have an instance of “deregulation”. You said that the verb “to deregulate” means removing all regulations. That’s the point I was disagreeing with initially.RE: “But the simple fact is that the failure of a regulated market proves nothing about the free market.”I would agree – I’m not taking muirgeo’s side on that point. But I would further argue that the failure of a regulated market says nothing about other variants of regulated markets.

Anonymous November 19, 2009 at 7:15 pm

DK wrote:

OK – but now we’re jumbling adjectives and verbs. I was talking about “regulation”.

Everything I said about the adjective applies to the verb as well.

You said that the verb “to deregulate” means removing all regulations. That’s the point I was disagreeing with initially.

Yes, and I’ve shown why: to “deregulate” is to produce a “deregulated” market — and a market cannot be “deregulated” and “regulated” at the same time.

But you’ve not addressed anything I’ve written — you’ve just tried to maintain that “deregulation” can be a process that leaves regulation in place.

And so you offer this formulation:

Of course an administration can pursue a policy of “deregulation” and still come out with a “regulated” market that is less “regulated” than the former market. In that sense the market is definitely still “regulated” but you also still have an instance of “deregulation”.

So let me try one more time. Your statement above is like saying:

Of course an administration can pursue a policy of “deactivation” and still come out with an “activated” bomb that is less “activated” than before. In that sense the bomb is definitely still “activated” but you also have an instance of “deactivation”.

When the bomb blows up, are you still going to maintain that this was an instance of “deactivation” — or are you going to agree that all that can accurately be said is that this was an instance of “partial deactivation” or “incomplete deactivation”?

An “instance” of “deregulation” that leaves a market “regulated” is a contradiction in terms — unless one adds some sort of qualifier — such as “partial” — to indicate clearly that this instance of “deregulation” has a meaning different than a “deregulation” that produces a truly deregulated, laissez-faire market.

Using the term “deregulation” without such a qualifier will mean that a market that has been made laissez-faire and a market that is still almost totally controlled can both held out as examples of “deregulation” — which means, that the failures and problems of the still-highly-controlled market can be used as an indictment of laissez-faire on the grounds that “deregulation” has been shown not to work.

The more honest term to use in these cases of “partial deregulation” is to simply describe it as “slightly/somewhat/significantly reduced regulation” — while being prepared to defend the adverb of your choice. That expression leaves no grounds for misrepresentation of what has been done, and no way to blame laissez-faire for problems in markets that are still highly regulated.

Anonymous November 19, 2009 at 7:25 pm

RE: “So let me try one more time. Your statement above is like saying:Of course an administration can pursue a policy of “deactivation” and still come out with an “activated” bomb that is less “activated” than before. “Let me start out by saying that at this point this is purely and simply a game of semantics, in my mind. Which is fine by me – semantic games can be entertaining.Anyway – your choice of analogy demonstrates that you probably know I’m right, even if you haven’t admitted it to yourself. You specifically chose a dichotomous example – the activation of a bomb. In that case, the only comparison is between “on” and “off”. Not so with regulation. An economy can be highly regulated, moderately regulated, barely regulated, or unregulated. A bomb can’t be “moderately activated” or “barely activated”, so the verb describing the activation of the bomb is going to reflect this.Let me put it this way – when I responded to your verb choice and called it inappropriate, you responded by providing an adjective choice that I agreed with but that was irrelevant to my verb choice. So let me ask the question this way: if an administration were to embrace a policy that reduced the burden of regulations by two thirds but did not entirely eliminate regulations, what VERB would you use to describe that? You claim to think that “deregulation” is inappropriate – would you call the reduction of regulation an act of “regulation”?I think “deregulation” as a verb is fine – and I think you know it is, you just don’t want to back down.And to drive home my point, I’ll modify your bomb example but get rid of the dichotomous element of the example. Instead of “activating” a bomb, let’s say we are upgrading/downgrading the bomb (I suppose by switching out a different warhead? I don’t know – whatever the process is). If you replace hte existing warhead with a new warhead that has only half the payload, wouldn’t you say that you’ve “downgraded” the bomb? You obviously haven’t completely eliminated the nuclear payload, but you’ve reduced it. It seems to me that you’ve still “downgraded” the bomb.

Anonymous November 19, 2009 at 9:55 pm

It would certainly appear that you don’t actually read what I write, at least not very carefully — otherwise, you’d see that I’ve already addressed a question you just asked:

So let me ask the question this way: if an administration were to embrace a policy that reduced the burden of regulations by two thirds but did not entirely eliminate regulations, what VERB would you use to describe that? You claim to think that “deregulation” is inappropriate – would you call the reduction of regulation an act of “regulation”?

As I said in my last comment:

The more honest term to use in these cases of “partial deregulation” is to simply describe it as “slightly/somewhat/significantly reduced regulation” — while being prepared to defend the adverb of your choice. That expression leaves no grounds for misrepresentation of what has been done, and no way to blame laissez-faire for problems in markets that are still highly regulated.

So no, I wouldn’t call a policy of “2/3 deregulation” “regulation“ — I‘d either call it a policy of “significantly reduced regulation“ or I‘d call it a policy of “2/3 deregulation“

As I’ve said over and over in these comments — which you evidently have not comprehended — it is not the use of the term “deregulation” that is “inappropriate”, it is the failure to include a modifier to distinguish between the cases of 1% repeal of regulations versus 50% or 100% repeal of regulations. It is the attempt to hold all three of those cases as equally valid examples of “deregulation” that is inappropriate.

What’s more, I’ve repeatedly noted the problems the absence of such a modifier generates — another fact which seems to have eluded you.

As to the example I chose, I selected that one because it involves the same set of suffixes and the same prefix applied to a root, namely “-ate” (going from active to activate is like going from regular to regulate), “-ed” (going from activate to activated is like going from regulate to regulated) and “de-” (going from activated to deactivated is like going from regulated to deregulated).

So, no, I didn’t specifically choose a “dichotomous” term, I chose a term that is grammatically treated the same way. I did consider the fact that “activated” and “deactivated” are bimodal in nature — but so are “regulated“ and “deregulated“; just as a bomb can either explode or not — which are the two states to which the terms “activated” and “deactivated” refer — so a market is either regulated or not, which is the two states referred to by “regulated” and “deregulated”.

As for your point that, unlike “activation”, there are intermediate states of regulation, that fact supports my case — as your “downgraded bomb” example illustrates.

Yes, I’d agree that when you are talking about a bomb whose destructive power has been reduced — but not eliminated — “downgraded“ would be accurate — it would fool no one into thinking that the bomb could no longer explode — while “deactivate” would be wholly misleading.

Likewise, when we are talking about a market whose regulations have been reduced — but not eliminated — we should use a comparable term to “downgraded” as opposed to “deregulated” — precisely because using the term “deregulated“ to refer to a market that is still regulated is wholly misleading.

This is not a semantics game to me. The very fallacy that I’ve been addressing in these comments was committed in “muirgeo’s” first comment in this thread when he alluded to the financial problems stemming from our “deregulated banks”. In my view, to refer to the U.S. banking system at present as “deregulated” — or to hold out what has been done to the banking industry as “deregulation” — is simply preposterous, and can lead to nothing but confusion and fallacious arguments aimed at discrediting laissez-faire.

Anonymous November 19, 2009 at 11:54 pm

DK, while you are thinking about this issue, consider this question:

Suppose we have a market to which government has applied 3 regulations:

1) Every business owner must purchase a business license from the government at a price of $100 every year.

2) Every business owner must pay all his employees time and a half for all work done in excess of 40 hours in a week.

3) All products sold in this market must be sold at the same, fixed price set by the government, with the government free to change this price at any time, up to and including weekly or daily changes.

So we have three regulations in this market. How would you evaluate the following statements, made to a public that is not versed in the details of this market’s regulation:

a) Regulation “1″ is lifted and then public is told, “Deregulation has occurred in this market.”

b) Regulation 1 is lifted, and the public is told, “This market has been deregulated.”

c) Regulations 1 & 2 have been lifted, and after 6 months the public is told, “This market was deregulated and it is still racked with problems, therefore deregulation has been shown not to work.

I hold that “a” is misleading, because anyone who knows the details of this market will realize that regulation “1″ is economically trivial, and therefore its removal is irrelevant. I realize that you are trying to make the case that statement “1″ is accurate — and that that is the very issue we are debating — but I’m just wondering whether you will also defend it as not being misleading.

I hold statement “b” to be both false and misleading, because a market cannot be regulated and deregulated at the same time.

I hold statement “c” to be both wrong and intellectually dishonest. To remove regulations that one knows to be economically irrelevant while leaving intact a regulation as draconian as total government price controls — and then conclude that “deregulation doesn’t work” — is indefensible.

According to your interpretation, however, that statement is accurate. Do you also hold it to be not misleading and not dishonest.

Just curious as to your interpretations.

By the way, in my last comment where I noted the common prefixes and suffixes used in the example of “activated” and “deactivated” versus “regulated” and “deregulated”, I forgot to note that they also obviously share the suffix “-ion”. Just an oversight on my part. No intention to avoid a comparison of the meaning of “deactivation” versus “deregulation”.

Anonymous November 19, 2009 at 11:54 pm

DK, while you are thinking about this issue, consider this question:

Suppose we have a market to which government has applied 3 regulations:

1) Every business owner must purchase a business license from the government at a price of $100 every year.

2) Every business owner must pay all his employees time and a half for all work done in excess of 40 hours in a week.

3) All products sold in this market must be sold at the same, fixed price set by the government, with the government free to change this price at any time, up to and including weekly or daily changes.

So we have three regulations in this market. How would you evaluate the following statements, made to a public that is not versed in the details of this market’s regulation:

a) Regulation “1″ is lifted and then public is told, “Deregulation has occurred in this market.”

b) Regulation 1 is lifted, and the public is told, “This market has been deregulated.”

c) Regulations 1 & 2 have been lifted, and after 6 months the public is told, “This market was deregulated and it is still racked with problems, therefore deregulation has been shown not to work.

I hold that “a” is misleading, because anyone who knows the details of this market will realize that regulation “1″ is economically trivial, and therefore its removal is irrelevant. I realize that you are trying to make the case that statement “1″ is accurate — and that that is the very issue we are debating — but I’m just wondering whether you will also defend it as not being misleading.

I hold statement “b” to be both false and misleading, because a market cannot be regulated and deregulated at the same time.

I hold statement “c” to be both wrong and intellectually dishonest. To remove regulations that one knows to be economically irrelevant while leaving intact a regulation as draconian as total government price controls — and then conclude that “deregulation doesn’t work” — is indefensible.

According to your interpretation, however, that statement is accurate. Do you also hold it to be not misleading and not dishonest.

Just curious as to your interpretations.

By the way, in my last comment where I noted the common prefixes and suffixes used in the example of “activated” and “deactivated” versus “regulated” and “deregulated”, I forgot to note that they also obviously share the suffix “-ion”. Just an oversight on my part. No intention to avoid a comparison of the meaning of “deactivation” versus “deregulation”.

Anonymous November 19, 2009 at 11:49 pm

I understood quite well your point about “partial deregulation”, I just found it ironic that you would be the one complaining about “rendering a term meaningless” when you’re the one insisting that we can only use the verb “deregulate” if all regulations are wiped off the books. That’s what would render the term meaningless.

You further complain: “It is the attempt to hold all three of those cases as equally valid examples of “deregulation” that is inappropriate”, without even realizing that your chosen modified version – “partial deregulation” does the EXACT SAME THING – it holds multiple intermediate reductions of regulation as “equal”. Why is it that “partial deregulation” passes on this point for you, but “deregulation” doesn’t? It is certainly true – neither are as specific as they could potentially be. But that doesn’t make either of them “inappropriate” – and the same problem you’re complaining about in “deregulation” holds for “partial deregulation”.

To deregulate is to eliminate a regulation. It does not imply that you eliminate all regulations. I don’t even think muirgeo is arguing that. If you’re basing your point on the fact that muirgeo uses hyperbole, I don’t think that’s a valid reason for imposing arbitrary grammatical rules of your own.

I don’t see why anyone is any more likely to assume that “deregulate” means that all regulations have been done away with than they are to assume that to “downgrade” means that all explosive force of a bomb has been done away with. Why do you assume that people would assume that all is gone in one instance but not in the other? What does the ending “-ate” have to do with that?

Anonymous November 20, 2009 at 12:06 am

See my answer above soon – this is getting thin. Very interesting framing of the question!

Anonymous November 20, 2009 at 12:06 am

See my answer above soon – this is getting thin. Very interesting framing of the question!

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