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How bad is it?

Tweet [1]

Not as bad as this [2] (which deceptively does not control for the change in the size of the workforce as a number of you pointed out, thank you very much), but I think it's worse than Alan Reynolds thinks it is [3]. Here is a useful picture from Bob Hall and Susan Woodward [4]:

Hall [5]

A similar analysis from William Polley (HT: Ironman) is here [6].

But the more important question is whether we know anything about how to make it better. The fact that it's bad doesn't justify making it worse. I think Arnold has the right perspective [7] on that.