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The Science, or ‘Science,’ of the Spending Multiplier

Tweet [1]

Last week I linked to my friend Bob Gelfond’s complaint [2] – quite justified, in my view – of the unscientific nature of much of the work on the Keynesian multiplier.  Here’s a link to a website for a project that Bob launched for the purpose of assessing [3] (as the site says)

how well economists have demonstrated that the spending multiplier is greater than one. Specifically, we are seeking an “out-of-sample” (“OS”) test performed successfully. More on the importance of this form of testing can be found here [4].

At this site, you can also propose wagers, on this matter, with Bob.