Reality-Based Skepticism of Government Action to Fight Global Warming

by Don Boudreaux on August 13, 2006

in Environment, Politics, Regulation, Standard of Living

Members of the true reality-based community understand that
atmospheric science does not give the final answer about what, if anything,
governments should do to combat global warming.  Global temperatures might well be rising,
and human commerce and industry might well be the principal cause of this
warming. But there is a genuinely
scientific, reasonable case for at least being skeptical of entrusting
government with more power to combat it.

I make the case for this skepticism in my column in today’s
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
. Here are the
key paragraphs:

Capitalism produces so much food that we are never malnourished; it
produces ample clothing and sturdy homes to protect us from the
elements; it produces the soaps, shampoos, toothpastes and detergents
that we use every day to cleanse our bodies and living spaces of
bacteria and other dirt. And by continually substituting machines for
human labor, capitalism progressively makes our work less backbreaking
and less perilous.

These gains are significant and real. And they are continuing; no one knows where, or even if, they will stop.

Those of us who recognize these important benefits of capitalism
– those of us who understand that capitalism’s true greatness lies not
(as many critics insinuate) in producing oceans of pointless trinkets
and baubles but in making the lives of ordinary people richer and
fuller and longer — are reluctant to yield power to governments to
tackle global warming. We worry that this power will kill the goose
that’s laying this golden egg.

If you think that such a worry is exaggerated, recall the
language Al Gore used in his book "Earth in the Balance." The former
Vice President asserted that we are suffering an "environmental crisis"
that can be avoided only if we "drastically change our civilization and
our way of thinking."

"Drastically change our civilization." Hmmm. This sounds like a
call to significantly scale back markets, trade and industrial
activities in order to lessen humankind’s "footprint" on the Earth and
its environment. We can, no doubt, make our environmental footprint
smaller — but how great a benefit will this achievement be if it
returns us to the ages-old condition of high mortality and morbidity?

Undoubtedly, most people who seek government action to fight global
warming are "reasonable." They envision no drastic changes to our
civilization. And I concede that, in principle, cost-effective steps to
reduce global warming are possible. But I’m sure that it’s also true
that most of the "reasonable" people who demand action against global
warming are unaware of the critical role that capitalism plays in
improving the lives of ordinary men and women.

So given this fact along with the hysterical language used by
the likes of Al Gore — who, after all, is not on society’s fringes –
it’s a perfectly legitimate stance for truly reasonable people to
conclude that the best policy regarding global warming is to neglect it
– and let capitalism continue to make us healthier and wealthier.

(Arnold and Bryan over at EconLog have different but complementary takes on this issue.)

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  • ben

    "We can, no doubt, make our environmental footprint smaller -- but how great a benefit will this achievement be if it returns us to the ages-old condition of high mortality and morbidity?"


    the trouble with free market worshippers calling greenies "doomsters" and "pessimists" is that you look like hypocrites when you claim the sky will fall if government intervenes.


    governments try to internalise signals because the fundamental welfare assumptions in micro theory do not hold. are you suggesting there is no uncosted information in pollution debates? that today's consumers are the same as tomorrow's consumers, or can decide things for them?

  • kentuckyliz

    The sun is burning hotter, and it's not only warming Earth's climate, but Mars' too! What are we going to do to cool the sun? What are we going to do about Martian warming?


    When is Algore going to quit flying around on private jets and emitting all that CO2? Let him use public transport, the hypocrite.

  • Randy

    Scott,


    The problem isn't that a few minor changes might destroy the economy, the problem is that making the changes necessary to actually do anything about global warming will. Getting the entire world to stop burning carbon based fuels immediately might reduce global warming by a degree or two. Now, who will vote for that? Is your hand up? How many others do you suppose are with you?

  • John Dewey

    Scott: "Because "safety" became important to people, and it took some government regulations to kick start the process."


    Was it government regulations that kick started the process? Something must have motivated the politicians to implement those regulations.


    Do you think Ralph Nader's 1965 book, "Unsafe at Any Speed", may have changed the public's attitude about car safety? That's when I remember the automobile safety debate became important.


    I'm not convinced that government regulations motivated people. I think it was the other way around.


    Forty years ago the public probably believed that free markets wouldn't solve their problems. So they used the instrument they were familiar with from the depression and World War II eras: big government.


    The public's perception of big governemnt has changed since 1965. We've seen how deregulation of industries such as airlines and telecom resulted in better products and lower prices. Voters no longer have faith that big government and its regulations will solve problems.

  • John Dewey

    Scott,


    Do any economists advocate agriculture price supports? I can't see how price supports do anything to encourage food production. Supports do allow inefficient producers to stay in business. Food production would be much more efficient without such supports.

  • Scott

    For many years we were told that the costs of putting seat belts into cars were too expensive, and would harm the automobile industry. Government regulations were enacted making seat belts mandatory. Did the automobile industry collapse? Did all of capitalism collapse? Not hardly. In fact today, auto manufactures compete to see who can add more "safety" features to cars at lower and lower price points, even in the absense of government regulations. Why? Because "safety" became important to people, and it took some government regulations to kick start the process.


    Is it really rational to believe that making some modifications to products will cause the collapse of capitalism? I don't think so. Will requiring that cars be more efficient cause the collapse of the automobile industry? If that were true, why do Californian's stricter regulations not cause the collapse of capitalism in California?


    BTW, if "capitalism" is so good at producing food, why do we need the government to provide price supports and hand outs to coporate farms? Why isn't "capitalism" sufficient to grow its own food?


  • Randy

    I can't wait to see the Democrats run on a party platform of raising the cost of gasoline and losing all the jobs that in any way involve the production of global warming gases. Somehow, I don't see it happening. But if this isn't what they're proposing, then what the hell are they proposing? What else is going to accomplish anything?


    Whether you believe that global warming is a potential disaster or not, the only thing certain is that nothing is going to be done about it. The average voter doesn't give a crap that the earth might get a degree or two warmer.

  • John Dewey

    A.PERLA: "given the fact that air pollution is a recorded fact,"


    I don't think we have agreed that CO2 is a pollutant. EPA's six defined pollutants are: carbon monoxide; nitrous oxides; particulate matter; sulfur dioxide; volatile organic compounds; and lead. I think it has been proven that all six can directly harm the health of human beings. I don't think anyone has proven that CO2 - in anywhere close to today's levels - will directly harm human beings.


    The EPA has been monitoring the levels of the six air pollutants since 1970. The total tonnage of these pollutants produced in the U.S. has declined by 54% - despite a 40% increase in population and a 187% increase in vehicle miles driven.


    http://tinyurl.com/oagtk


    Given the success we've had in reducing air pollution, why should we need to do anything else in the U.S.? If anyone can prove that CO2 is directly harmful to human beings, then perhaps we should add CO2 to the list of pollutants and began controlling it. But such proof has not been provided.

  • "What makes you think a smaller economic footprint results necessarily in higher mortality? Nothing indicates that it will. On the contrary, controlling pollution (thereby increasing manufacturing costs) can mean low mortality from pollution related sickness. Less related sickness (due to pollution) means people work longer and productivity is enhanced."


    Increasing manufacturing costs drives up the prices of basic goods to the point where the lowest income people in the economy can no longer afford them. Lower pollution means nothing when you can't buy a blanket to keep yourself warm in the winter, or soap to clean yourself and your home of deadly bacteria.


    And how will the average person react when they can no longer buy the luxury goods they've come to expect as "basic needs". Will they go willingly without? Or will a black market emerge with even less care for the environment than regulated manufacturers? The signs point strongly towards a black market.

  • A. PERLA

    "It is irrelevant that it is colder now than thousands of years ago. Today, our activities are raising the earth's temperature. This has never happened before."


    This is patently untrue. Samples of ice taken from the artic (that go way back in time) show that global warming happened repeatedly over the history of the earth.


    We simply feel that this one is due to mankind's overuse of carbon-molecule fuels. But, the timeframe for any real conclusions from the data is really too short to be decisive.


    Can we all agree to disagree on this one? Given the geopolitical risks of oil-based fuels and given the fact that air pollution is a recorded fact, then can we not simply look for other technologies for motor vehicle propulsion and other renewable energy usages?


    Whether the government gives the lead by funding such R&D is somewhat irrelevant. Some promising technologies are ripe for product implementation. Others (such as fusion) will take considerably longer.


    Whatever, ultimately it is industry that will come up with the technological alternatives that customers want. (Meaning you and me.) Let the marketplace decide, where consumers vote with their wallets. What solution would be more democratic or more free-market oriented?


    Energy needs historically rise at about 2 to 3% per annum in a developed economy. The recent dramatic price rise is heaven sent - it gives us sufficient reason and urgency to consider the problem of alternatives seriously. There are many, including one that America perhaps should not have abandoned so readily - nuclear.


    Whether the capitalist system is too blame or not is simply moot. It is wise to avoid that the exchange becomes a partisan polemic.


  • happyjuggler0

    A significant part of the Greenhouse Gases (GG's) that seem to be warming the planet a bit are due to gasoline.


    Commonsense supply and demand says that for the demand for that gasoline to fall the price ought to be "high". A $5.00 per gallon increase in the price of gasoline ought to do the trick, and the revenues gained can be offset by tax decreases elsewhere.


    The average American is upset that gas prices seem to be high. They also seem to want us to stop doing things that create global warming.


    They can't have low gas prices and also expect less burning of gasoline, those are inconsistent positions.


    Don Boudreaux is right to be sceptical that government will be the "solution", at least so long as we live under the tyranny of the masses called democracy.

  • A. PERLA

    Boudreaux: "We can, no doubt, make our environmental footprint smaller -- but how great a benefit will this achievement be if it returns us to the ages-old condition of high mortality and morbidity?"


    You make this conclusion without justifying it.


    What makes you think a smaller economic footprint results necessarily in higher mortality? Nothing indicates that it will. On the contrary, controlling pollution (thereby increasing manufacturing costs) can mean low mortality from pollution related sickness. Less related sickness (due to pollution) means people work longer and productivity is enhanced.


    Lower sickness rates also mean less cost of health care.


    It appears you've not thought through your conclusion very well.


  • The point is quite interesting. May I change the question: "if we're sure that an event is going to change our environment dramatically, should we intervene?".

    You can as well think to an asteroid that could hit our earth with a degree of probability of 50%. At the stage of the studies now, there is a consistent probability that the global warming will happen and that will change our environment. It is a model, like the gravitational one.


    It has a degree of error, like the gravitational one. Should we intervene?


    I'd say that, from a pure scientific point of view, we could make an externality by financing massive researches and measures on the event. For the asteroid would be a special radar; for the climate would be satellites and probes. Then if we narrow the probability to 95%, I think we can decide properly.


    What I really dont like is this approach à la "let it be, the system will rule itself". The change could dramatically break our capitalistic society and let us lose all what we gained.


    Why dont we stay stick to the science?


    PS: "Back when the experts thought the Earth was cooling they had a consensus that cooling was bad"; pls remember that consensus between scientist is no science..

  • SK Peterson

    One problem with the global warming analyses isn't with whether it's occurring, or not. I'm willing to believe it is relative to recent geological history as noted by Bruce above. However, I'm not convinced of the argument of anthropogenic origins of the recent warming trend(s). First, the definition of what constitutes anthropogenic causes is quite broad - forests or grasslands that would burn during a dry season (a significant amount of the annual carbon emissions total) due to natural causes, are categorized as anthropogenic if caused by a cigarette flung out of a car. Some studies place all grassland fires in the anthropogenically caused category, regardless of the true cause. Second, the implication that only modern, industrialized man has altered the environment and created carbon emissions is false. This goes more to Don's point - carbon emissions are viewed by too many as entirely a consequence of industrialization brought about by capitalism. As a result, efforts to "control" carbon emissions inevitably target capitalist institutions, which may have greater societal costs than benefits accruing to the environment. There has been considerable recent (last 30-40 years) scholarship regarding the environmental modifications engaged in by pre-industrial human societies - some evidence would indicate that much of the Great Plains were burned over each and every year, as well as significant portions of the eastern and southern forests. All of this burning would have contributed significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. The question I have not seen answered is: How much more has the modern, industrial carbon output been over the last 200 years, when compared with the vast amounts of forests and grasslands regularly burned for centuries previously? My guess would be not much, if any, and probably not enough to register within the long time period climate cycles of geological history.

  • joeb

    The sky is falling, the sky is falling.


    Al Gore and many of his ilk would like to believe that he (Al) is the Paul Revere of environmental issues like too much CO2 in the air in the same way that he took credit for inventing the Internet back when he running for VP. Maybe Al's clarion call is guilt from all the years that poppa (Al, Sr) sat on the Board of Directors of Island Creek Coal Company and Occidental, Inc (coal, oil & gas, chemicals, etc.) making sonny (and the rest of the family) very wealthy.


    We just all have to work together in this but getting China and India to shut down or curb their economies would be next to impossible. The same for anyone else who hopes to have a better life.

  • Ammonium

    Back when the experts thought the Earth was cooling they had a consensus that cooling was bad. In both cases, any change is considered bad. Look at any fear mongering on the local news about the newest Walmart, and you'll see that the biggest perceived threat to our civilization is change (unless the change in brought by our saintly politicians).


    This fear does have some rational basis. If the sea level rises it could make many areas difficult to inhabit. It would cost a lot of money to remain in those places, or a lot of capital would be lost. But in the long run, changes tend to balance out. For example, a warmer climate should increase overall agricultural output.

  • Greg

    I do not follow your logic. Politicians engage in hyperbole, whether it's our President on Terrorism's threat or Gore and global warming's threat. Your piece established that much.


    But "reasonable" people who believe we are affecting our climate are - according to you - "unaware" of capitalism's benefits? This is where your logic breaks down. You finally conclude that "truly reasonable" people should ignore global warming. This does not follow.


    As I see it, just about every solution to reducing our greenhouse gas consumption includes market-style permit trading schemes. This strategy largely worked with acid rain. The idea, as I'm sure you're aware, is that such programs spur innovation and enable our capitalist economy to efficiently adjust. "Truly reasonable" people believe we should try market solutions to fight pollution (global warming is a form of pollution).


    RESPONSE to Mr. Hall: It is irrelevant that it is colder now than thousands of years ago. Today, our activities are raising the earth's temperature. This has never happened before.


    As you state, we try to "control" everything, implying that we shouldn't. I agree. The logical conclusion then is that we should let nature control our climate - not human activities.


    You also minimize the affects of global warming. The vast majority of experts claim that the overall effects are negative, largely because of the more extreme weather and unpredictability of events. I think it's important to agree with the experts when they can come to a consensus on something as complicated as climate change. It is what rational, risk-averse individuals do when faced with risk and uncertainty.

  • The more general point is that, whatever the crisis du jour, everyone with a strong point of view will use it to promote their program. Thus with 9/11 and global warming. And obviously the science-based facts that global warming is happening and is largely human-caused are independent of deciding what to do about it.


    But what to do about it is a fact-based inquiry. It cannot be established by repeating the (true) mantra of all the good things capitalism has accomplished in the past. Nor can it be accomplished by repeating the standard do-gooder line about how we need to change our evil consumption habits.


    Unfortunately, many stalwart advocates of market solutions have dissipated their credibility by mounting campaigns that deliberately ignore and distort the consensus of climate science -- under the Orwellian rubic of "sound science." http://blogs.chicagoreader.com/daily-harold/200...


    Those who've spent the last decade muddying the waters of public debate on the science issues will be ill positioned to be taken seriously on the pragmatic issues -- even if they're right on them.

  • I would say your conclusion is correct, but it really has nothing to do with capitalism or government policy. It has more to do with having an answer before the right question is asked.


    We live in a cold world compared to the geological near past.


    Now, naturally, there is concern among some that the climate may be warming a bit. After all, it has been hundreds of thousands of years since mankind left the tropics to settle in colder areas of the planet. Certainly, our life-styles could be affected by warmer average global temperatures.


    But, by and large, the earth remains a cold planet compared to the planet it was when there was an expansion of the diversity of life during its lush period 50-60 million years ago (98% point of life's timeline on this planet... beginning about 2.5 billion years ago). In fact, our current condition is a planet that is rather sparse with life comparatively.


    Nature has a way of changing things despite our best efforts at trying to control everything. Little things like the gap between North and South America closing certainly did more than man could ever hope to accomplish. Sure, we may have some influence on the change, but we have a long way to go before the arctic reaches 74 degrees F again (Alaska averages between 10 and 40 degrees F).


    The real question is: would we have a more or less habitable world... not just for man? I don't believe that question has really been posed... much less answered.

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