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The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal remembers the late Chip Mellor, co-founder (along with Clint Bolick) of the Institute for Justice. Two slices:

Many young lawyers hope for careers in which they can use the law to promote justice and change lives, but few succeed. One who did was William “Chip” Mellor, who died Friday at 73 years old.

Mellor co-founded and for many years was president of the Institute for Justice, whose causes have often been taken up in these columns. IJ’s mission is to help Americans whose rights are being violated by government. This is the opposite of most public-interest legal shops whose goal is to expand government power over individuals and business.

…..

The firm has brought or intervened in 30 lawsuits to give parents more educational options. Its 2002 Supreme Court victory in Zelman v. Simmons-Harris confirmed that school choice programs that include religious options are constitutional, and the group’s work has helped make possible programs that have awarded more than 4.8 million scholarships.

IJ has won 10 Supreme Court cases, including both it brought in the 2023 term, DeVillier v. Texas on the Fifth Amendment’s takings clause and Gonzalez v. Trevino on the First Amendment protection against government punishment for unpopular speech.

David Henderson, writing in the Wall Street Journal, describes the work of the newly minted Nobel-laureates in economics. Three slices:

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences to three economists. The recipients are Turkish-born Daron Acemoglu and British-born Simon Johnson, both of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and British-born James A. Robinson, an economist and political scientist at the University of Chicago. They received the award “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity.”

…..

In their 2012 book, “Why Nations Fail,” Messrs. Acemoglu and Robinson divide countries into two types: extractive and inclusive. In extractive countries, a small elite extracts wealth from the masses, whereas in inclusive countries, political power is shared. When governments are extractive, people have little incentive to produce. But the opposite is true when governments are inclusive, as people have property rights and can accumulate wealth.

…..

It’s good to see a Nobel Prize awarded to economists who understand the importance of private property and the rule of law. Unfortunately, Mr. Acemoglu’s understanding is incomplete. He recently signed a statement supporting the Brazilian government’s move to rein in freedom of speech for Brazilians who want to communicate using X. Only time will tell whether Mr. Acemoglu will favor further undercutting of the rule of law. Let’s hope he doesn’t.

Pierre Lemieux worries about Acemoglu’s naïveté about the state. A slice:

I reviewed the two latest books of Acemoglu: The Narrow Corridor with James Robinson, and Power and Progress with Simon Johnson. Acemoglu’s naïve and pre-public-choice conception of the state has become more obvious: if this was not apparent in his earlier work, it certainly is in these two books and especially in the last one.  The words and expressions used sometimes betray Acemoglu’s progressive agenda.

Arnold Kling is spot-on:

I think of the election as a necessary evil. Elections are necessary because you want people to give up power. But they are evil because politics is like the worst of Twitter. You get followers by stirring up fear and anger.

We can have an argument over which candidate’s economic proposals are worse than the other’s. We can have an argument over which candidate’s rhetoric is more demagogic and out of touch with reality. Only a partisan hack could claim that either candidate is good on the economy. I wish we could elect Javier Milei.

Eric Boehm reports on some of the higher prices awaiting Americans if Trump’s proposed tariffs are imposed. A slice:

The Republican presidential nominee’s threat to impose new tariffs on nearly all imports into the United States would make video game consoles 40 percent more expensive, according to an analysis published this month by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), an industry group best known for its annual Las Vegas conference showcasing the latest tech for home and personal use.

The report assumes that Trump can carry out his threat to hit all imports from China with a 60 percent tariff, along with a baseline tariff of 10 percent or 20 percent on all other imports. (Trump has been unclear about which level he’d prefer, and recently suggested a “thousand percent tariff.”)

Scott Lincicome is always worth reading. Two slices:

This is indeed what’s happened historically in the United States, as work hours have declined and wages (and leisure time!) have increased dramatically. Contrary to what you might read on the internet, moreover, the connection between productivity and pay remains tight today. As the American Enterprise Institute’s Scott Winship thoroughly documented in May, for example, the supposed gap between the average American workers’ compensation and aggregate U.S. productivity is a statistical myth. Instead, he shows in several different ways that the linkage has fluctuated a bit in recent decades but still lines up quite well overall (and is light years away from the stark divergence we see in the online doomer memes).

…..

Most of the online discussion of these poor results has focused on the ports’ lack of automation, which ILA chief (and very fancy lad) Harold Daggett is indeed fighting tooth and nail, going so far as to recently demand “absolute airtight language that there will be no automation or semiautomation” in the union’s next six-year contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents shippers and port operators. And he’s doing that even as “U.S. ports already lag those in Europe and Asia in their use of technology,” thus helping to “explain why U.S. ports score so poorly on the World Bank’s annual ranking of trade gateways.”

As we’ve discussed, however, the productivity issue at American ports runs a lot deeper (pun!) than just their relative lack of automation, and much of it stems from other union demands that further sap productivity. Their contracts, for example, “dramatically increase labor costs at port terminals …, expressly limit the number of hours that workers can work (total and per shift) and require overtime pay for unscheduled work, as well as any work on weekends and holidays.” (Here’s one particularly crazy cost.) Unions also fight “efforts by other port operators, especially in the South, to supplement their unionized labor force with non-union workers—a ‘hybrid system’ that ‘has underpinned robust container volume growth across the region.’” As a result, American ports don’t operate 24/7, unlike many other, more productive ports around the world.

Peter Earle and GMU alum Thomas Savidge explain how government borrowing helps to fuel special-interest politics.

Fiona Harrigan busts the myth of the voting noncitizen.

Noah Rothman decries Ta-Nehisi Coates’s “moral blindness.”

Jack Butler’s counsel is sound.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 357-358 of the original edition of Walter Lippmann’s sometimes deeply flawed but profoundly insightful and important 1937 book, The Good Society:

The man who has built himself a castle above the highway in order that he may exact a toll from the merchants on their way to market acquires wealth not by producing it but by seizing it. His predatory incursions arbitrarily yield the returns which would otherwise go to invention, industry, and thrift. But for his castle and his armed hands he would be poorer than the passing merchant whom he despoils: because he is more powerful but is unrestrained, he reaps a greater reward from highway robbery than other men can make by producing wealth. Thus the ideal of equal rights for all and special privileges for none is inseparable from the pursuit of liberty.

DBx: Yes.

Lippmann’s account, while correct, is incomplete. It’s not only the merchants waylaid by the highway robber who are harmed by the robber’s extractions. Two other groups of people are harmed by the robber’s greedy actions. Consumers whose access to goods is reduced by the highway robber are harmed; also harmed are those merchants and their employees who produce and sell less because consumers are obliged by the highway robber to spend more on the goods sold by the robber’s direct victims.

Protectionism is nothing but this sort of highway robbery camouflaged by uniforms, flags, and marble columns, and justified by pseudo-scientific ‘analyses.’ Any clever sophomore can whip up coherent theories of how allowing robbery (or arson, or rape, or even murder) under just the right conditions will improve humanity’s welfare. All efforts, past and present, to justify protectionism as a tool for economic improvement are no better than what would be offered by such a clever sophomore. (Indeed, many of these efforts aren’t even coherent.)

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Zephyr Teachout Continues to Teach Outlandishly

Fact-free sermonizing must be fun.

Editor, New York Review of Books

Editor:

Zephyr Teachout’s defense of protectionism is a mayhem of mistakes (“Harris’s Chance on Trade,” Oct. 13).

It’s untrue, for example, that “three decades of agreements branded as free trade … have decimated American manufacturing.” Manufacturing output today is 57 percent higher than it was when NAFTA first took effect 30 years ago.

Nor, contrary to Prof. Teachout’s assertion, is there any evidence that good jobs have been shipped to Mexico. While the percentage of America’s nonfarm workforce employed in manufacturing has indeed fallen since 1994, that trend started in 1944, a half-century earlier. Over the course of the 369 months that have elapsed since NAFTA was instituted (January 1994 through September 2024), the percentage of American workers in manufacturing fell from 15.0 percent to 8.1 percent. Yet in the 369 months leading up to NAFTA’s implementation (April 1963 through December 1993), the percentage of American workers in manufacturing also fell, from 27.6% to 15.0%. The pace of the decline in the percentage of workers employed in manufacturing was the same before NAFTA’s implementation as it has been since.* Further, the inflation-adjusted hourly wage of nonsupervisory manufacturing workers in the U.S., even ignoring the increase in the value of fringe benefits, is today 27 percent higher than it was in January 1994.**

These realities are among the many that are practically impossible to square with Prof. Teachout’s suggestion that trade agreements such as NAFTA have inflicted net harm on American workers.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

* Calculated by dividing – from FRED – “All Employees, Manufacturing” (MANEMP) by “All Employees, Nonfarm” (PAYEMS).

** Calculated from the data on nominal manufacturing wages available here, adjusted for inflation using this Personal-Consumption-Expenditure-deflator calculator.

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Listen to the Argument Before Hurling Accusations

In my latest column for AIER I offer a sincere plea to all who disagree with me and the many other economists who oppose government prohibitions on so-called “price gouging” at least to listen to our arguments before accusing us of being evil. (My promised response to Oren Cass on trade and externalities was rescheduled; it will now appear next week.) Here are two slices from my new piece on “price gouging” and price controls:

On a recent morning my email brought three different messages from strangers each expressing, in family-unfriendly language, a wish that I meet a hideous, horrible end. One of these correspondents also asked what price I charge billionaires for my soul. This correspondent helpfully included a link to an October 2017 piece of mine in the Wall Street Journal, which made clear just why these strangers were motivated to offer me their not-so-well wishes.

Google then informed me that this Wall Street Journal essay was also mentioned in some overnight tweets, all critical. The essay’s title – which I didn’t choose, but of which I approve – is “‘Price Gouging’ After a Disaster Is Good for the Public.”

So I write here a heartfelt plea, addressed to everyone who truly cares about the well-being of ordinary people, to listen – to truly listen – to the economic case against government prohibitions on price increases, especially those price increases that occur in the wake of hurricanes and other natural disasters.

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The natural disaster simultaneously decreases the supplies of goods and services and increases the demand. This reality is as indisputable as it is unfortunate. But given this unfortunate reality, describing the outcomes that everyone of goodwill wishes is easy. We want individuals with the most dire needs – people who need water lest they suffer intense thirst, homeowners who need plywood to patch the roofs over their children’s bedrooms, families who need blankets to stay warm – to have prospects as great as possible to satisfy these needs. The relevant question is: How best to ensure these outcomes that we all want?

Most economists say that allowing monetary prices to rise is key to making these desirable outcomes as likely as possible. We don’t say this because we’re obsessed with money, because we believe that prices are all that matter, or because we’re pawns of corporate interests. We say this because we understand (or, at any rate, we sincerely believe that we understand) that money prices set on markets reflect as accurately as possible existing economic realities. And in economic matters no less than in noneconomic matters, acting with accurate knowledge of reality is far more likely to prompt people to act wisely and to everyone’s mutual advantage than is acting without knowledge or with ‘knowledge’ that’s highly inaccurate.

Natural disasters worsen underlying economic realities. The higher prices of goods and services reflect this reality. These higher prices reflect the sad reality that natural disasters, while causing families to be in more desperate need for the likes of plywood, propane, and generators, at the same time diminish readily available supplies of these goods. Put differently, these higher prices reflect the unarguable fact that in regions devastated by natural disasters goods have become more scarce and, thus, their market values higher. It follows that government-imposed ceilings on the prices of these goods prevent information about these increased scarcities and higher market values from being reflected and communicated as accurately as possible.

Importantly, prohibiting monetary prices from rising to reflect goods’ decreased abundance does not make the goods more abundant. Nor does prohibiting prices from rising to reflect goods’ true market values bring goods’ true market values down to the government-stipulated maximum prices. This crucial point seems to be missed by proponents of price controls. Governments can control the monetary prices at which goods are exchanged, but they cannot control the values that market participants place on those goods. If, say, lots of people are willing to pay up to $200 each for the same tanks of propane that before the natural disaster sold for $40, the market value of each tank of propane is $200 even if merchants are prohibited from charging a price this high.

Relatedly, the amount of money that merchants paid yesterday to acquire each of these tanks no more determines the value of each tank today than does the amount of money paid in 1997 for a house determine the value of that house in 2024. That value is determined by the amount that buyers are willing to pay now – an amount that itself reflects the urgency of acquiring the good now. With fewer supplies of the good now available, and with the need for the good made more urgent by the natural disaster, the amount that people now are willing to pay rises.

By censoring this important information, price ceilings spread information that’s false.

The false information spread by price ceilings alone goes far to explain economists’ objection to price ceilings. Because more information is better than less, there ought to be at least a rebuttable presumption that the wisest policy is to permit prices to rise in order that they truthfully inform sellers and buyers of the prevailing, dire economic situation. As in all other aspects of life, people are more likely to act in ways that minimize harms or maximize benefits – and that reduce personal conflicts – the more accurate is the information that motivates their actions.

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Some Links

My GMU Econ and Mercatus Center colleague Pete Boettke reflects on the award to F.A. Hayek, announced 50 years ago this month, of the Nobel Prize in economics. A slice:

Economics is a science of complex phenomena, not a science of simple phenomena. The methods appropriate for the one are wholly inappropriate for the other.  In fact, Hayek argued, the methods that appear the most scientific, will in fact be the least, and those that appear least scientific may be the most. Furthermore, Hayek continued that unless economist correct their error not only will the science of economics border on charlatanism, but the practitioners of economics will become tyrants over their fellow citizens and destroyers of civilization.

Martin Lueken reports that “school choice saves taxpayer dollars.” A slice:

Decades of data show that these programs generate substantial fiscal benefits for taxpayers. A recent EdChoice analysis of 48 school-choice programs across 26 states through 2022 estimates that school-choice programs generated cumulative net fiscal benefits for taxpayers worth between $19.4 billion and $45.6 billion. This translates to up to $7,800 a student. Put another way, for every dollar spent on these programs, taxpayers have saved between $1.70 and $2.64—a significant return on investment.

Opponents claim that school-choice programs cause budget meltdowns. But these programs represent only a fraction of overall state spending. Across all states with choice programs, total state spending on all public services exceeds $1.2 trillion. The cost for choice programs represents only 0.3% of state budgets. These programs aren’t large enough to upend budgets—and they’re flexible. They typically start small and grow slowly over time, allowing states and districts to adjust their budgets and operations.

Anyone who is very sure that the Trumpian right clearly poses a greater threat to liberal values than do progressives should read this essay by Andrew Stuttaford….

…. and read also this Wall Street Journal column by Mary O’Grady. A slice:

Progressives want the state to monitor truth in the public square, and some would give government the power to punish dissent from approved narratives. Last month Hillary Clinton proposed criminalizing speech she labels as “propaganda.”

[DBx: No matter what happens in the presidential sweepstakes in November, nearly all of us Americans afterwards will be in deep doo-doo. At this point, all I care about regarding the upcoming election is (1) hoping that the election outcome, whatever it will be, isn’t contested, (2) relishing the defeat of whichever presidential ticket loses, and (3) hoping that the GOP gains control of the U.S. Senate in order to avoid elimination of the filibuster.]

George Leef understandably is a fan of Arnold Kling’s recent excellent defense of allowing dissent.

Colin Grabow shares some evidence of the dysfunction of protectionism.

Vance Ginn details some of the high costs of rent control. A slice:

Landlords, faced with below-market rents, often convert rental units into condos or leave them vacant rather than rent them out at lower rates. This leads to a further reduction in available rentals and worse living conditions for tenants. It’s a vicious cycle that harms the housing market and the people relying on it.

David Friedman offers a compelling take on declining birth rates. (HT Jane Shaw Stroup)

Lee Fang writes about San Francisco’s “progressive racism.”

Peter Suderman applauds creative cocktails.

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Quotation of the Day…

is the opening lines of Robert Higgs’s excellent October 2009 Mercatus Center Policy Brief titled “The Political Economy of Crisis Opportunism”:

In personal life, no one relishes a crisis, but in political life, many people pray for a crisis as drought-stricken farmers pray for rain. For these people, a societal crisis promises to bring not extraordinary difficulties, dangers, and challenges, but rather enlarged opportunities.

DBx: Yep. If you fancy yourself a savior, you need people who need saving – or, better yet, people who you can hoodwink into thinking that they need your saving. People who can be so hoodwinked into thinking that they need you to save them from some imaginary terror besetting them today, or from some monster approaching from just around the bend, are people who will be especially willing to turn over their treasure and liberties to their saviors.

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Adjusting for Inflation Differently

This morning I awakened to find an email from someone (who I don’t know) telling me that I erred in this response to Oren Cass – my error being that I adjusted for inflation using the Personal Consumption Expenditure deflator rather than the GDP deflator. I can’t tell whether or not my correspondent largely accepts my criticism of Cass.

So I here repeat the relevant portions of my post, but now with nominal dollars from the past adjusted into 2024 dollars using the GDP deflator.

Want evidence of the absurdity of balance-of-trade accounting? If the story you tell were true – a story of U.S. trade deficits being a sure sign of Americans going on reckless spending binges funded by selling off assets to, and borrowing funds from, foreigners – we Americans would now be destitute. After all, America has run an unbroken string of annual trade deficits every year starting 1976. That’s nearly a half-century-long run of annual trade deficits, or 20 percent of our nation’s existence. And yet —

– Inflation-adjusted net worth of nonfinancial corporate businesses in America today (June 2024) is 386 417 percent greater than it was in 1975, the last year America ran an annual trade surplus. (I adjusted for inflation using this Personal Consumption Price Index calculator GDP-deflator calculator.)

– The ratio of nonfinancial corporate business debt to the market value of corporate equities is today (June 2024) only 26 percent of what that ratio was in 1975.

– Most tellingly, the inflation-adjusted total net worth of American households is today (June 2024) 281 278 percent greater than it was in 1987 (the earliest date for which I can get consistent data). Because the number of households in the U.S. today (2023) is only 47 percent greater than it was in 1987, the average inflation-adjusted net worth of an American household has increased significantly over the past 37 years. This fact alone suffices to discredit your economically naïve tale of American trade deficits draining Americans of wealth.

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Some Links

Ray Keating accurately, if with understatement, describes today’s trade policies as being “detached from sound economics.” A slice:

On the campaign trail, Trump has made various proposals to increase tariffs (i.e., taxes on imports) beyond what he did in his first term (which included increased tariffs on washing machines, solar panels, steel, aluminum, and some 70 percent of products coming from China). He has called for a 10 percent or 20 percent across the board tariff on products coming into the U.S. from around the globe;  at least a 60 percent tariff on products from China; and putting an end to “permanent normal trade relations” with China.

By the way, the Tax Foundation has estimated: “Former President Donald Trump’s proposals to impose a universal tariff of 20 percent and an additional tariff on Chinese imports of at least 60 percent would spike the average tariff rate on all imports to highs not seen since the Great Depression.”

Meanwhile, Harris appears set to follow the trade agenda put out by the Biden-Harris administration. That includes not just maintaining but expanding the Trump tariffs on goods from China, but shifting trade agreements away from free trade, that is, lowering government costs and barriers, and to accords emphasizing the imposition of U.S. regulations, such as on the labor and environmental fronts, on other nations.

So, the Biden-Harris administration has turned trade agreements on their heads by using them to increase governmental burdens.

Sheldon Richman distinguishes full liberalism from shrunken liberalism.

Art Carden asks: “When should the government intervene?” A slice:

To this end, a presentation from the philosopher Jason Brennan inspired a paper I’m contributing to a symposium in the Journal of Private Enterprise on the contributions of my late friend and Liberty Fund contributor Steven G. Horwitz. Brennan and his coauthor Christopher Freiman explained how all the arguments for regulating consumer choices apply equally to political choices. Sure, we’re irrational and weak-willed at the supermarket. The problem is worse in the voting booth because our incentives are even worse.

David Henderson is understandably appalled by Joseph Stiglitz’s apparent ignorance of economic history. A slice:

One of the big misleading comments is his implication that the financial crisis was caused by deregulation. Economist Norbert Michel did a good job of taking this apart in a Heritage Foundation report in 2016. It’s titled “The Myth of Financial Market Deregulation,” April 28, 2016.

Joe Lancaster rightly criticizes Trump’s pandering to the automobile industry.

Wall Street Journal columnist Holman Jenkins explains that when taxpayers subsidize their fellow citizens’ choices to live in areas especially prone to being damaged by storms, too many of their fellow citizens will choose to live in areas especially prone to being damaged by storms. Two slices:

In the wake of devastating storms, the least popular argument is nevertheless an important one. We wouldn’t be asking of people in storm-prone areas anything not asked of every other American. Insurance markets exist—indeed, all markets exist in a sense—to inform people of the cost of their choices so they can make better ones.

Hardly a point emphasized by climate obsessives, today’s rising storm damage is due mainly to more people putting up more expensive and elaborate structures in places where destructive weather is a predictable hazard.

They do so not least because of the availability of federal rebuilding money, including federal flood insurance that is underpriced and subsidized by taxpayers who don’t benefit from beachfront charms.

…..

“We call weather-related catastrophes ‘natural disasters,’” observed a 2016 Stanford Law Review study, but the losses are often due to “questionable government policies.”

Fiona Hartigan does a deep dive into the recent history of U.S. immigration policy.

Arnold Kling eloquently champions the freedom to dissent.

Jay Bhattacharya tweets:

The easiest way to never spread ‘misinformation’ is to echo whatever the bureaucracy says and never stray, even when it is badly mistaken.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America, as quoted on pages 5-6 of George Stigler‘s 1950 book Five Lectures on Economic Problems“:

The principle of self-interest rightly understood produces no great acts of self-sacrifice, but it suggests daily small acts of self-denial. By itself it cannot suffice to make a man virtuous; but it disciplines a number of persons in habits of regularity, temperance, moderation, foresight, self-command; and if it does not lead men straight to virtue by the will, it gradually draws them in that direction by their habits. If the principle of self-interest rightly understood were to sway the whole moral world, extraordinary virtues would doubtless be more rare, but I think that gross depravity would also be less common. The principle of interest rightly understood perhaps prevents men from rising far above the level of mankind, but a great number of other men, who were falling far below it, are caught and restrained by it. Observe some few individuals, they are lowered by it; survey mankind, they are raised.

DBx: Yes, although a background assumption here is that no one has the right to violate the equal property and contract rights of others. The self-interest of someone operating in a market incites that person to behave prudently if not necessarily magnanimously. In contrast, the self-interest of someone operating politically – of a person operating in a setting in which the negative consequences of his or her actions are borne largely by other people with the benefits concentrated mostly on him or her – encourages that person to become a monster.

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I Really Dislike the Term “Export-Oriented Economy”

Here’s a note to the brother of a former student of mine:

Mr. K__:

Thanks for your email. You ask my opinion of this MarketWatch piece on China. I’m afraid my opinion isn’t high.

The piece is standard-fare pop economics that uncritically accepts the kindergarten-Keynesian notion that economic growth is a mechanical outcome grounded in consumer spending: More spending, more growth. This notion ignores the role of institutions such as the security of property and contract rights, the freedom of prices, profits, losses, and interest rates to reflect underlying economic realities, and attitudes toward innovation and economic change. The root cause of China’s economic troubles isn’t excess saving by the Chinese people, and these troubles won’t be ended by government ‘stimulus’ or by redistribution of income. They’ll be ended only if and insofar as the Chinese economy is freed of Beijing’s fetters and prodding.

Allow me to make another point: I really dislike the much-used term “export-oriented economy.” This term is highly misleading. What’s meant is an economy that exports a great deal. Yet such an economy grows and benefits from its exports only insofar as it receives in return goods and services – that is, only insofar as it imports. An economy whose exports do not provide its citizens with the capacity to import at least an equivalent amount is an economy that is growing poorer as it enriches foreigners with a steady flow of gifts. Therefore, every successful economy described as “export oriented” can just as accurately be described as “import oriented.” Yet the commonplace term “export oriented” fuels tolerance for trade restrictions by conveying the false impression that exports as such are a source of wealth while imports are irrelevant or even harmful.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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