Take the most recent paper by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University. Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David Weinstein looked at who shoulders the cost of the tariffs, examining which part of the tariff reaches consumers through higher prices versus which share of the price hike is due to other factors. The group estimates that a 10 percent tariff on all imports will raise U.S. consumer prices by about 2.6 percent. Roughly two-thirds of the increase comes quickly and directly from the tariff being passed on to customers at the border. The remaining third of the price hike shows up more slowly in American-made goods.
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If you want cheaper houses, do not make Canadian lumber more expensive. If you want more affordable cars and appliances, do not tax steel and aluminum inputs. If you want American manufacturers to compete, do not make them pay more for intermediate goods. And if you want American exporters to prosper, do not repeatedly provoke America’s trading partners into retaliating against them. In short, remove the tariffs.
Stuart Anderson and Mark Regets warn that “Trump is set to mark a dangerous first for the labor force.” Two slices:
Donald Trump is on track to become the first president in a century to oversee a U.S. labor force that will be smaller when he leaves office than when he entered. Since the start of his second term, the number of people in the United States who are either employed or looking for a job has dropped by 1.6 million — and it’s largely because of Trump’s immigration restrictions. Unless those policies change, a shrinking workforce will cause slower economic growth and lead to more expensive public debt.
This is an anomaly in U.S. history. The civilian labor force has increased by the end of every president’s term, with the possible exception of Abraham Lincoln’s because of the number of people who left the workforce to fight in the Civil War.
Growth accelerated in the decades following World War II largely thanks to the baby boom, increases in female workforce participation and a spike in immigration after 1965. The labor force increased by 6.7 million during Ronald Reagan’s first term and by 8.7 million during his second. Similar growth occurred under Bill Clinton. Falling birth rates slowed the expansion of the U.S.-born labor force after the early 2000s but thanks to immigration the number of total workers still rose by 1.6 million during Barack Obama’s first term and by 3.9 million during his second.
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Removing immigrants from the labor force reduces the domestic market for goods and services. Immigrants are not only workers, but also consumers. As immigrants are expelled and the labor supply shrinks, economic growth diminishes and employers have fewer opportunities to invest in their businesses. That discourages employers from developing their employees’ skills or taking a chance on lower-skilled workers.
President Trump has drawn condemnation for suggesting that communities that block data centers will end up “backwards and poor.” His remark was hyperbolic, but he’s right that areas embracing data centers are enjoying more jobs and faster wage growth.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics last week published industry-level data on state and county employment and wages through March of this year. We compared growth in Loudoun County, Va.—known as Data Center Alley—with other Washington, D.C., suburbs since early 2020 before the pandemic. The disparities are striking.
Loudoun has long been a hub for data-center development because of its easy zoning, relatively low-cost energy and geographical proximity to telecom network exchanges. It’s an exurban county with more land for growth than older suburbs closer to D.C. But it has also embraced growth, unlike those older suburbs. Construction growth has accelerated amid the AI boom, with permitted data-center space increasing by some 150% between 2020 and 2025. Jobs have followed.
Most counties surrounding the capital have experienced little job growth since the pandemic. Loudoun is the exception, with employment surging 17.4% since early 2020. Jobs increased by 1% or less in Fairfax County, Va., and Prince George’s County, Md. Virginia’s Arlington County (-7.3%) and Maryland’s Montgomery County shed jobs (-5.6%).
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Data centers can help to spread prosperity without government intervention and income redistribution. Could that be the real reason America’s political class is turning against them?
Dick Portillo opened a hot-dog stand in 1963 without knowing how to cook a hot dog. Half a century later he sold the company for $1 billion. The proceeds bought a Chicago-area mansion, a private jet and a 12,000-square-foot waterfront home in Naples, Fla., with its own dock to moor his 130-foot yacht, Top Dog.
“I came from a poor family and at one time thought I didn’t have anything to offer the world,” Portillo wrote in a memoir. The youngest of three children, he was born in Chicago to immigrants from Mexico and Greece and raised partly in one of the city’s most notorious housing projects.
By 2014, the stand he’d built with $1,100 had become the Midwest’s largest privately owned restaurant company with 4,000 employees and no franchises or outside investors. A single Portillo’s could bring in $9 million a year, roughly three times a typical McDonald’s.
Stories like Portillo’s rarely make the news. His business was private. He sold hot dogs, not some shiny new technology. His success grew slowly over decades and in the upper Midwest away from the coasts.
But Portillo’s story is hardly unique. Across America, such business owners—we call them Everywhere Millionaires—have built extraordinary fortunes running ordinary businesses. Some launched their own ventures, working long hours and reinvesting the profits to stay afloat and grow. Others inherited a family firm and built upon the success of prior generations.
Pop culture portrays the rich as an elite few, akin to the Rockefellers and Carnegies of the Gilded Age. But rich private business owners are now so plentiful that we’re living in America’s first Age of Millionaires.
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Indeed, the typical path to $10 million and up comes from owning a company. That path is open in every town, in unglamorous industries, to people without top test scores, fancy degrees or rich parents.
And you don’t need to be a genius to be a successful entrepreneur. The relationship between starting a star business and SAT scores is, in fact, quite weak. The top 10% of test scorers become founders of businesses only 1.3 times as often as those at the median. What matters more is real experience in the working world or early exposure to a family business.
Portillo, for example, didn’t go to college. He enlisted in the Marine Corps seven days after graduating high school in 1957, and he considers his two years at Camp Pendleton among the most important of his life. They taught him teamwork, organizational planning and a deep appreciation for proper training, all of which he later used in building his business.
And increasingly, the opportunity of “unsexy” businesses is drawing elite graduates away from the traditional big-city jobs.
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Unlike the transformational innovation central to economic growth, the innovations of Everywhere Millionaires are often more incremental. Dick Portillo learned to steam buns by watching someone else do it. From that, he built a billion-dollar hot dog behemoth. His business grew because he sold a product that people wanted.
Fifty years later, so did the founders of Dave’s Hot Chicken. Three friends started it in a Los Angeles parking lot with $900 and a passion for Nashville-style hot chicken. Eight years later, they had more than 300 locations and sold the business in 2025 for $1 billion. Several generations removed from Portillo, their success shows that the path from limited means and no fancy degrees to fabulous wealth remains open today.
Casual dining is the poster child of free competition, with businesses opening and closing all the time. We consumers benefit from that churn, as does the economy. Incremental product improvements by one business force its competitors to respond with their own improvements if they hope to keep pace and not lose customers.
Philip Klein is right to pay close attention to J.D. Vance’s clever evasiveness and duplicity.


The past few decades have been an era of globalization. Most countries have moved to reduce trade barriers and take advantage of growing world trade. How have they done so? One way a country can reduce its tariff and non-tariff barriers is simply to act unilaterally. A unilateral tariff reduction occurs when a government decides to reduce its import duties on its own, independently of other countries. In recent years, many developing countries have chosen this path. When China, India, Vietnam, and other Asian countries opened up to world markets, they did so based on domestic political changes in favor of economic reforms, including a more open trade policy.
A capital inflow occurs because foreign investors can get a higher real interest rate here than at home. If the reason the interest rate is high is, as sometimes asserted, that Americans have become increasingly impatient, unwilling to give up present utility for future utility, then it is a symptom of a change that will ultimately make us poorer – we are living on future income and some day the bill will come due. If the reason is that American firms have lots of good investment opportunities, and are therefore happy to offer higher rates than Japanese firms, the bill will still come due, but we will have the returns from those investments to pay it with.
An international look at per-pupil expenditures likewise gives the lie to claims that more money produces better education. Despite claims that money is needed to hire more teachers to relieve “overcrowded classrooms,” the United States already has a smaller average class size than a number of countries whose educational achievements are higher. Japan, for example, averages 41 students per class, compared to 26 for the United States. In mathematics, where the performance gap is especially glaring, the average class size in Japan is 43, compared to 20 in the U.S. Within the United States, the ratio of pupils to teachers declined throughout the entire era from the 1960s to the 1980s, when test scores were also declining.
