Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Riley writes sensibly about AI. A slice:
ChatGPT arrived in 2022, and the AI alarmists said white-collar workers were in danger. Yet the Economist reported this year that “since late 2022 America has added roughly 3m white-collar jobs—which include management, professional, sales and office roles,” while blue-collar employment has remained flat. “Some occupations regularly cast as AI’s early victims are on a tear. America has 7% more software developers, 10% more radiologists and 21% more paralegals than three years ago.”
Pay has likewise kept pace, the magazine noted. Since 2022, inflation-adjusted wages “in professional and business services (think salespeople, accountants and the like) have increased by 5%. Office and administrative workers earn 9% more.” American history is full of disruptive innovations that have resulted in higher productivity, with many more jobs being created than destroyed. Government basic-income schemes are a solution in search of a problem. And to the extent that these policies discourage work and wind up subsidizing idleness—and the associated counterproductive behavior—they will exacerbate the problem.
My intrepid Mercatus Center colleague, Veronique de Rugy, continues her battle against the U.S. government’s fiscal incontinence. A slice:
Start with a recap of the fiscal picture. The federal government runs large deficits so persistently that they’ve become a structural threat to price stability. As Romina Boccia and Dominik Lett argue in the handbook’s second chapter, when debt expands faster than the economy, investors begin pricing in one of three outcomes: higher future taxes, deeper spending cuts, or inflation that quietly erases the real value of what the government owes. When Congress fails to credibly commit to the first two, it chooses door No. 3 by default.
The inflation surge of 2021 was the consequence of an extraordinary flood of deficit-financed spending with no commitment to repaying it. As our money lost purchasing power, the Federal Reserve eventually had to raise interest rates sharply, further reducing purchasing power. Politicians have yet to meaningfully tighten the government’s belt, and we continue to have unnecessarily high interest rates and prices.
The Wall Street Journal‘s Editorial Board rightly criticizes the Trump administration’s bailout of Spirit Airlines. Two slices:
Who could have imagined that the U.S. government would deem a budget airline too big to fail? Yet here we are, as President Trump is flying to the rescue of the beleaguered Spirit Airlines. This is a story of how one misconceived government intervention leads to another.
Spirit last summer declared bankruptcy for the second time in less than two years. A hefty debt load and challenging business model has made a turnaround difficult. The Biden antitrust cops closed one escape hatch by blocking its merger with JetBlue in 2024. Now Spirit is getting slammed by soaring prices for jet fuel because of the war in Iran.
All of this means that the no-frills carrier could have to liquidate and lay off some 14,000 workers. Enter Mr. Trump, who floated a bailout of Spirit in a CNBC interview this week. Press reports say his Administration is negotiating a rescue that would lend the carrier some $500 million in return for warrants to buy as much as 90% of equity in the company. Is this the revival of the Trump Shuttle, circa 1989?
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Don’t be surprised if JetBlue seeks a rescue too. Government ownership would also lead to regulatory and political favoritism that harms competition. That’s no doubt why stocks of other airlines fell following reports of the Trump intervention.
Washington could wind up subsidizing Spirit’s money-losing business indefinitely. The Trump Shuttle didn’t succeed, and the U.S. doesn’t need an Amtrak of the airways.
The Wall Street Journal‘s Editorial Board also reproaches the Trump administration for continuing to impose punitive taxes – a.k.a. tariffs – on Americans’ purchases of imports. Two slices:
The President said Tuesday he plans to more than compensate for the emergency tariffs the Supreme Court struck down by using other trade authorities. “We’ll end up with bigger numbers, actually,” the President told CNBC. His proposed budget forecasts $5.4 trillion in tariff revenue over the next decade—a $600 billion increase from its projection last fall.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that the Administration plans to complete its Section 301 investigations by July, which would let the Administration impose tariffs on countries to counter supposedly unfair trade practices. Earlier this month, the Administration boosted its Section 232 national-security tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper.
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Mr. Trump’s tariff escalation comes at a particularly painful time for American companies that consume metals, especially auto makers. An aluminum factory in upstate New York that supplied 40% of the U.S. auto industry caught fire last fall and is under repair. Auto makers have had to scale back production and import more aluminum at much higher cost.
Global aluminum prices have jumped nearly 20% this year owing to the war in Iran. Iranian missile attacks has damaged large smelters in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is America’s second biggest source of aluminum imports after Canada. Higher natural gas prices are also raising costs for metal producers in Asia.
By the way, the border taxes undermine U.S. national security. Mr. Trump’s proposed budget includes $450 billion more for defense, but he’s undercutting his buildup by making defense contractors buy steel and aluminum at a substantial markup. That’s because the tariffs let U.S. metal producers raise their prices.
The President also recently imposed new national-security tariffs of up to 100% on pharmaceuticals. Generics, orphan drugs and large pharmaceutical companies that have negotiated “most-favored nation” price and onshoring agreements with the Administration will be exempt. Tariffs will be lower (15%) on the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Switzerland. Our sources say the tariffs will mostly wallop small biotech companies that can’t afford U.S. manufacturing. The result will be higher drug prices and less investment in cures.
Charles Cooke decries the illiberal lizard-brain ideas of Hasan Piker. A slice:
It is not, in fact, acceptable to murder people because you think they are “social murderers.” It is not, in fact, acceptable to steal cars if you can “get away with it.” It is not, in fact, acceptable to shoplift if the store in question is owned by a “big corporation.” And no, blowing up pipelines is not, in fact, a “thing that should be legal that isn’t.”
John Locke contended that all individuals possess a natural right to “life, liberty, and property,” and, as a guiding principle, this has served us pretty well. It has not, of course, ended political debate or forced us into universal accord. But it has established the rule that one does not get to infringe upon those things simply because one has deemed oneself exempt. Hasan Piker seems to believe that his reference to Friedrich Engels’s “social murder” concept is extremely clever. In truth, it represents nothing more than solipsistic special pleading. If permitted to do so, everyone could play this game. Piker’s argument is that, by allocating resources as he did, Brian Thompson “killed” people. But one could offer precisely the same justification against politicians who run the government health-care systems that Piker covets, or against contractors whose budgets do not perfectly inoculate their apartment buildings against arson — or, if one were to fixate upon his refusal to donate his wealth to the world’s poor, against Piker himself. In this country, we do not leave it up to each person to determine to what extent each individual is murderable; we insist upon a blanket rule. To chip away at that dictum, even rhetorically, is to play with ancient fire.
Here’s the abstract of a new paper in Demography by Kevin Corinth and Jeff Larrimore: (HT Tyler Cowen)
Whether each generation of Americans continues to economically surpass the previous one has recently been called into question. We construct a posttax, posttransfer income measure from 1963 to 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement that allows us to consistently compare the economic well-being of five generations of Americans at ages 36–40. We find that Millennials had a real median household income that was 20% higher than that of the previous generation, a slowdown from the growth rate of the Silent Generation (36%) and Baby Boomers (26%), but similar to that of Generation X (16%). The slowdown for younger generations largely resulted from stalled growth in work hours among women. Progress for Millennials younger than 30 has also remained robust, though largely due to greater reliance on their parents. Additionally, lifetime income gains for younger generations far outweigh their higher educational costs.
Marian Tupy details “Earth Day’s bad bet against humanity.” A slice:
The Simon Abundance Index, which Dr. Gale L. Pooley and I publish every year on Earth Day, is named after Julian Simon. It is a deliberate continuation of the quantitative analysis of the relationship between population growth and resource abundance that Simon’s bet with Ehrlich began. Unlike Simon and Ehrlich, who measured the abundance of resources in inflation-adjusted dollars, we look at “time prices.” Money prices are distorted by inflation and disputed deflators. Time prices solve that problem by dividing a good’s money price by hourly income, showing how long a person must work to buy it. They capture both falling prices and rising wages, require no inflation adjustment, and allow comparisons across countries and centuries. Time is universal, cannot be printed, and reflects the real cost people pay: hours of life. Time prices provide a clearer, simpler, and more meaningful measure of resource abundance than money prices for ordinary people.
By this measure, the last 45 years have been a rout for the pessimists. The 2026 report says that the Simon Abundance Index stood at 636.4 in 2025, up from a base of 100 in 1980. That means Earth was 536.4 percent more abundant in 2025 than in 1980. All 50 commodities, including fuels, such as crude oil, coal, and natural gas, food, such as chicken, beef, and lamb, and metals, such as aluminum, copper, and gold (yes, even gold!), in the dataset were more abundant in 2025 than they were in 1980. The global abundance of resources increased at a compound annual rate of 4.2 percent, doubling about every 17 years. In the 42 countries tracked by the report—accounting for 85.9 percent of global gross domestic product and 66.3 percent of the world’s population—none saw lower resource abundance in 2025 than in 1980. That is not what a species trapped in Malthus’ arithmetic is supposed to produce.
The mechanics of that gain matter. Between 1980 and 2025, time prices for the 50 commodities fell by an average of 70.9 percent. What required an hour of work in 1980 required about 18 minutes in 2025. The same hour of work that bought one unit of a typical commodity in 1980 bought 3.44 units in 2025. That is a 244 percent increase in personal resource abundance. At the same time, the world population grew by 85 percent, from 4.44 billion to 8.21 billion. Put those two changes together and you get the index’s central finding: For every 1 percent increase in global population, population-level resource abundance grew by about 6.3 percent.