The trade war was a war of choice: its scale global, its timing entirely determined by zealots in the administration without reference to external events, its purpose entirely economic, and its result to destroy the trust Trump enjoyed with the voters on one of his two signature issues (the other being immigration). Let us never make that mistake again. The last time the party enacted a major across-the-board tariff hike, Reed Smoot and Willis Hawley both lost their next elections, and the party didn’t taste power again for a decade and a half, and found the country’s political system changed irrevocably in the interim.
“You could hardly design an issue better to destroy Republican fortunes,” Michael claims about the war. In fact, if I was trying to perfectly design the destruction of a Republican coalition, I would go after the party’s brand for cutting taxes and lowering costs — a brand that has been central to its identity at the federal, state, and local levels for half a century. During that time, the party’s presidents have waged several hot wars and numerous cold ones. Some have been immensely popular, some roundly unpopular, some in between. And yes, wars that are badly conceived and barely explained are likelier to do political damage, as this one did. And yes, Trump pitched himself to voters as a dove at times in ways that no Republican president has done since at least the 1920s. But then, more than a few of our presidents in the past have found that events put the lie to their campaign rhetoric in that direction.
But the one thing that has been constant throughout generations of foreign-policy debates is that Republicans can’t survive raising prices on Americans to fill the government’s coffers. That’s what blew up George H. W. Bush’s coalition after a war in the Middle East drove his approval rating above 90 percent. Read my lips on that one.
Scott Lincicome reflects deeply on the likely causes of last week’s electoral slaughter of the Republicans. Four slices:
In the weeks between Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory and his 2025 inauguration, several journalists asked me to predict U.S. trade policy during Trump 2.0. The first thing I’d always say was some variation of what I told Dispatch readers around the same time: Yes, we should expect more tariffs (and more chaos), but it wouldn’t make political or economic sense for an administration propelled into power by inflation-weary voters to immediately start taxing coffee, bananas, energy, and other not-made-here necessities. A macroeconomically costly global tariff regime, therefore, was probably off the table.
I admit: I was wrong.
Last week’s election earthquake set off an inevitable scramble on the right to identify the cause. Most notable was Vice President J.D. Vance, who took to Twitter to declare that “the real reason we lost” was the Iran war, conveniently omitting any possible blame for the populist economic policies (tariffs, especially) that he champions. Others on the right did the exact opposite, blaming everything on tariffs while ignoring a war that many of them supported (at least initially). Both sides are wrong.
Exit polling data confirm that both tariffs and Iran—along with several other issues—drove last week’s election results. Determining each factor’s precise weight is a fool’s errand, especially at this early stage. Yet one thing is already clear: American voters again rejected the economic populism that’s been championed, in different flavors, by both the right and the left over the last decade. A “populist” economic agenda, it turns out, isn’t very popular at all—at least once voters get a real-world taste of it.
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But the data also show that the war was an accelerant, not what got voters’ economic fire roaring in the first place. As Phil Magness already detailed for The Dispatch, the administration’s weakness on the economy started with Trump’s tariffs, with voter disapproval evident in both last week’s exit polls and numerous surveys dating back to last spring.
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Tariffs were, in Magness’ words, a “millstone” around Republicans’ necks—largely because they so aggravated voters’ top economic concern: the cost of living. They are intended to raise prices—that’s how they protect domestic manufacturers, duh—and that’s precisely what they did: Several studies have found that Americans bore most of the tariffs’ economic burden in 2025; other studies show they had a meaningful effect on the overall price level last year; and numerous media reports detailed how tariffs motivated large importers and retailers, small businesses, and domestic manufacturers (e.g., Whirlpool) to raise their prices.
Tariffs also motivated the president and his team to spend much of the last year and a half insulting the very voters they needed. Trump first said that tariffs wouldn’t raise prices, then later defended those higher prices by telling Americans they didn’t need so many dolls and pencils. (He also called the word affordability “a con job by the Democrats” and “a hoax” last December.) Earlier in the year, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured us that “cheap goods” weren’t important. Voters noticed who was sneering at their desire to pay less for stuff—it was the guys imposing historic tariffs—and they reacted accordingly.
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The tariffs also, however, fed into two other voter concerns. As we’ve discussed, tariffs have a long history of fomenting cronyism, as companies jockey for exemptions and protections, and they did it again over the last two years: trade and tariff lobbying hit record levels, and numerous CEOs—American and foreign—traveled to Washington to win special treatment (often on live TV). Tariffs are also uniquely tied to “Tariff Man” Trump himself, who implemented them in his typically chaotic style and—as Dispatch readers know better than anyone — just likes tariffs and always has.
Scott Kaufmann has this sensible letter in today’s Wall Street Journal:
Yes, it was the economy that prompted Americans to vote Democratic. The principal factor driving voters’ repudiation of the Republican Party was tariffs. Even voters in rural Republican strongholds in Iowa, Texas and Kansas swung decisively away from the party that didn’t listen to them as global markets for farm products dried up because of border taxes and the president’s misguided attacks on our trading partners.
Republicans need to return to Ronald Reagan’s free-trade agenda.
The arguments that were articulated and disseminated through mass meetings, pamphlets, literature and speeches were not primarily economic and aimed at policymakers. Instead, they were moral ones, and arguments about wider social and political principles. The argument for free trade in grain was always associated with and framed by wider ones about class power and the purpose of government.
Most notably, the League did not call for smaller or piecemeal changes, nor was it prepared to settle for that kind of measure. Instead, it always and consistently argued for the immediate and total repeal of the Corn Laws.
Eric Boehm reports that Trump’s immigration crackdown helped deliver Kansas to the Democrats.
GMU Econ alum Adam Michel is no fan of the CHIPS Act subsidies for building data centers. A slice:
Extending the CHIPS Act credit would also provide new subsidies for the AI data center buildout that lawmakers are otherwise trying to curtail. Efforts to limit data center construction through new restrictions or special taxes are economically destructive and should be opposed, but data centers shouldn’t be subsidized either. For lawmakers concerned about AI subsidies, the easiest thing they can do is let the CHIPS Act tax credit expire.


Bentham never studied systematically any social or legal institution, English or foreign, contemporary or historical. He never tried to master the working principles of the institutions he sought to reform. Instead he deduced optimal institutions from the greatest-happiness principle and then tried to work out the details of their implementation. This is a mode of social research that breeds utopianism and its bitter cousin radicalism. Lacking an understanding of the real world to which his reforms must be fitted, the utopian reformer grows increasingly impatient at society’s failure to implement his ideas and proposes increasingly radical measures to force a refractory world into his imagined mold.
A monster captures Townville and, possessing a cruel sense of humor, conducts a plebiscite in which the citizens of Townville can ‘choose’ – by majority rule – how they will all be killed: Burned alive at the stake or garroted. (“Remaining alive and unmolested” isn’t an option.) Not everyone votes, but many people do. When the ballots are all counted, garroting has 54.3% of the votes.
Economists don’t argue that we should abandon manufacturing. In fact, we don’t argue economies “should” do anything; we think that question is best left to the decentralized decisions of millions of Americans. And their decisions have the US manufacturing sector producing as much output as ever, so it is at no risk of going extinct. We merely suggest that we shouldn’t throw good money after bad by way of subsidies or restrictions to keep manufacturing jobs in America if other nations can do them more efficiently.
Mainstream commentators sometimes describe today’s conservative movement as “more extreme” than in the past. There are ways in which that is the case, but there are also ways in which that is misleading. It helps to distinguish between the rhetorical and substantive dimensions, and to realize that the two are not always correlated. Republicans in the Trump era certainly have adopted a rhetorical extremism – a posture of cruelty toward outsiders and a ratcheting up of the stakes of political disagreement in order to whip their base into an emotional froth. But on substantive policy issues, MAGA conservatism is supremely flexible, even mushy. It has no strong commitment to streamlining government by cutting spending and devolving power from Washington. Quite the contrary.
For, “to give” requires some degree of other-regarding, minimally expressed through an awareness of and even sympathy for someone else’s needs and wants. That necessitates a willingness to put yourself in another person’s place, even if briefly and temporarily. In The Theory of Moral Sentiments, Smith devotes many pages to describing how this occurs. “To take,” by contrast, demands no substantive reflection on another person’s ambitions or needs, let alone the conditions under which other people find themselves.
Soon enough, the [Berlin] wall would indeed come down. That is often thought of as the first domino to fall in Eastern Europe, but in fact, it occurred a few months after Poland held its first semi-free parliamentary elections in June 1989. Solidarity claimed 99 percent of the open seats, and Lech Walęsa went on to become president of a democratic Poland.
