GMU Econ alums Scott Burns and Caleb Fuller steel-man the argument that Trump’s tariffs are meant to be bargaining chips to make trade freer and U.S. national security stronger. Two slices:
If forced to devise a “strategic trade war plan” to bring about freer trade, our strategy would be grounded on three pillars. We’ll call them the “three T’s” of trade wars.
First, a strategic trade war should be Targeted. In particular, its scope should be squarely focused on “bad actors” nations and “strategically important” industries. For our purposes, “Bad actors” refers to nations that impose significant trade restrictions on American firms and exports; “strategically important” refers to products and industries deemed essential for economic and national security.
Why is it so vital that the trade war be targeted? Since trade promotes peace and prosperity, we want to avoid inflicting any collateral damage on friendly trading partners. Reliable trading partners don’t need to be catching strays in a well-executed trade war. To the extent they do, we’re unnecessarily hurting our relationship with those allies and harming our own economy. We also want to minimize any blowback we might face in the form of retaliatory tariffs. When it comes to using tariffs and other weapons in our strategic trade arsenal, we want to shoot with a sniper rifle, not a shotgun.
Second, it should be Transparent. This means that officials should announce any tariffs or sanctions well in advance. There’s also a case in which they should be phased in rather than going into effect all at once.
Why telegraph your maneuvers? In chess or traditional warfare, the element of surprise is essential. You don’t want your foe to predict your next move or see your attack coming. Trade wars, however, operate under very different rules of engagement. If the goal is to negotiate better (i.e., freer) trade deals, guerrilla warfare and surprise attacks aren’t the best course of action.
Instead, you want your counterpart to know exactly what you plan to do and when you plan to do it. This gives them ample time to negotiate and strike a deal before a mutually destructive conflict begins. Telegraphing your actions is also smart because it gives businesses more time to adjust their supply chains and plan for the future. As any economists worth their salt can attest, uncertainty is a surefire recipe for economic stagnation. If we want to avoid an economic quagmire, transparency is critical.
The key thing to keep in mind is that tariff threats should be a form of deterrence. The goal is to avoid hostilities, not incite them. Remember: trade is, by definition, “win-win.” When people trade, they’re both made richer. This is just as true for trade between people in different nations as for trade within a country. Thus, anything that impedes trade is a “lose-lose”—it makes people in both nations poorer. It’s one thing to talk tough and threaten tariffs. But it’s another to enact them. The moment those talks fall apart and a trade war actually breaks out, both sides have already lost.
Third, trade wars should be Temporary. For tariff threats to be effective, they must be negotiable and, ultimately, reversible if your terms are met. The sooner an armistice is reached, the better.
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Contrary to the President’s claims, most of his tariffs weren’t “reciprocal” or “retaliatory”in any meaningful sense of the words. Most of the nations we imposed our steepest tariffs on did not have exorbitant tariffs or non-tariff barriers on us. In fact, America’s track record isn’t exactly above reproach when it comes to free trade. Before April 2, the average tariff rate the U.S. imposed on foreign imports was approximately 2.5%; the average tariff rate that foreign nations imposed on U.S. exports was only about 2%. After “Liberation Day,” our average tariff rate shot north of 25%. Even after the President’s 90-day pause on April 9, our trade-weighted average tariff rate still exceeds 24%, making the U.S. the most protectionist nation in the developed world. Even the alleged “worst offenders”— China, the EU, Mexico, and Japan—charged no more than 4-5% tariffs on U.S. exports, which is well below the President’s 10% baseline tariff rate that’s been in place since April 2.
“Trump’s economists say the darndest things.”
Arizona Supreme Court justice Clint Bolick – who cofounded, with Chip Mellor, the Institute for Justice – is speaking out against the further battering done to the rule of law by the Trump administration. Two slices:
Clint Bolick is worried.
The Arizona Supreme Court justice and rock star of the political right stood before a crowd of lawyers recently and rebuked “deeply disturbing” attacks on the American justice system coming from senior Trump administration officials.
“It’s almost dystopian. And when I think of people wrapping themselves in the Constitution while they are simultaneously doing violence to it … it is really scary stuff,” Bolick told those gathered at the May event hosted by Society for the Rule of Law, a right-of-center legal organization.
Though he didn’t name names, the speech showed an extraordinary level of openness for a Supreme Court justice, as justices typically refrain from commenting on public affairs to avoid perceptions of bias.
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Bolick emphasized multiple threats in his speech, including Vice President JD Vance flippantly referring to “due process” on social media, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller threatening to suspend habeas corpus if judges didn’t “do the right thing.” Habeas corpus protects against unlawful imprisonment.
He also chastised local threats to judicial independence, including a fierce campaign from the political left against his retention election in 2024, which focused on his decision to uphold an 1864 near-total abortion ban in Arizona.
Chandran Kukathas explains what shouldn’t – but, alas, what nevertheless today does – need explaining: The tighter are government controls on immigration, the tighter are government controls on its own citizens. Three slices:
Yet the danger to those American values comes not from immigration itself but from immigration control. You cannot control outsiders (immigrants or would-be immigrants) without controlling insiders (citizens). The more vigorously you try to control immigration, the more you end up limiting the freedom of your citizens and violating equality and the rule of law.
This isn’t hypothetical. As Hiroshi Motomura and others have noted, during the Great Depression and in the years following World War II, an estimated two million people were forced to leave the United States. Astonishingly, more than half were American citizens, mostly people who were (or were suspected of being) Mexican. They were blamed for taking jobs and public resources and were deported or self-deported under intense pressure from authorities after targeted raids on neighborhoods.
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Immigration control is not necessarily about restricting entry but about controlling what those who enter do: determining whether they can work, study, reside, buy property, open bank accounts, set up businesses or marry. This is a challenge because many citizens are all too ready to employ outsiders, admit them to schools and universities, sell to them, buy from them or fall in love with them — in short, welcome them.
The only way for a government to prevent this from happening is to control its citizens by limiting their freedom to live as they choose. This means citizens must be controlled with penalties or punishments: fines, imprisonment or violence. They must be inspected, monitored, scolded, threatened and made to be fearful of finding themselves in violation of the law and at risk of being punished.
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The more determined governments are to control immigration, the more they will have to abandon due process and act as if the corruption of the rule of law were justified. Or turn a blind eye to the misuse of power by its agents.
We have to consider what these measures do to a society. They affect America’s core values, particularly liberty and equality. Liberty, because Americans see freedom to live as they choose as central to their way of life. Equality, because liberty is the natural endowment of all, not just some. Americans are not alone in thinking this, but they have said it more loudly and clearly than anyone else.
Proponents of such control will have to persuade at least some citizens that this violation of liberty is warranted and even normal. As the use of power by immigration authorities to stop and search citizens becomes routine and the voices of dissent are suppressed, citizens will even come to accept the militarization of society.
But the efforts at control will be divisive among citizens: Some will accept them as necessary, but others will resist them. So as governments try to normalize the violation of liberty, those who buy this story will look at those who object or resist not as fellow countrymen but as enemies. This is what we are seeing now unfolding on the streets across the United States.
Immigration control will transform America. The more vigorously it is pursued, the more it will turn us into people who do not care about the liberty of others. Worse still, it may turn us into people who do not care about our own.
George Will writes insightfully about the Voting Rights Act of 1965. A slice:
This is today’s judicial morass concerning redistricting: Race-consciousness is mandatory; race as “predominant” is forbidden. The path to this conundrum is explained in “Deconstructing the Republic,” the invaluable 2008 book by Anthony A. Peacock of Utah State University.
Emmanuel Rincon updates us on Argentina under Javier Milei.