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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 74 of the late Daniel Dennett’s magnificent 1995 volume, Darwin’s Dangerous Idea:

Time and again, biologists baffled by some apparently futile or maladroit bit of bad design in nature have eventually come to see that they have underestimated the ingenuity, the sheer brilliance, the depth of insight to be discovered in one of Mother Nature’s creations. Francis Crick has mischievously baptized this trend in the name of his colleague Leslie Orgel, speaking of what he calls “Orgel’s Second Rule: Evolution is cleverer than you are.”

DBx: Yes – and this lesson about the evolution of natural processes applies with no less force to the evolution of market processes. The only real difference is that biologists by and large are more genuinely scientific than economists.

Too many mainstream economists who are baffled by some apparently futile or maladroit bit of bad design in the market economy leap to the conclusion that the market economy is “failing” and, therefore, the government must intervene to force observed features of the market economy to appear to conform more closely to textbook models. The attitude is this: “If I – a professional economist or think-tank head – don’t understand what I observe, then what I observe must be causing harm. I will help to make the real world look more like the theoretical model that is so pretty in my imagination!”

These economists reject the understanding that drove and drives the work of, among others, Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Joseph Schumpeter, F.A. Hayek, Ronald Coase, Armen Alchian, Donald Dewey, Harold Demsetz, Israel Kirzner, Thomas Sowell, Dominick Armentano, Deirdre McCloskey, and Robert Higgs – the understanding that the market is a never-ending process of trial and error that discovers extraordinarily creative ways to satisfy human wants. Unlike biologists who appreciate the unfathomable complexity of the phenomena they study, typical mainstream economists mistake the necessary simplifications of their models as being full-enough descriptions of economic reality – and when not fully enough descriptive, then prescriptive of what government should do.

…..

I repeat here an example that I perhaps turn to too often: an ‘ordinary’ American supermarket. Walk into your neighborhood Kroger or Safeway or Walmart or Whole Foods. Pick any aisle at random – say, the aisle with laundry detergent. Who dealt with the logistics to ensure that jugs of Tide detergent wound up undamaged on the shelf? What process is at work that results in that shelf almost always being filled with detergent that you are free to purchase or not to purchase? Who designed the barcode and the software that lets you scan a jug of that detergent at the self-checkout lane? Now ask the same questions about the dishwasher detergent and paper towels. Move on to other aisles and ask about toothpaste, aspirin, peanut butter, corn flakes, milk, yogurt, orange juice, crushed red pepper, cumin, fresh broccoli, fresh corn, canned corned, olives, ground beef, lamb chops, gluten-free pasta, coffee. The list is very long.

And who pays that store’s electricity bill? Who supplies that store’s liability insurance? Who put up the capital that makes that supermarket possible?

Ask the following question to anyone who fancies that he or she knows enough to recommend how government coercion should be used to ‘redesign’ or change existing market processes and outcomes: “Can you recount in sufficient detail all the information and knowledge that is used today to ensure that that Kroger or Walmart operates as a supermarket in a manner that all Americans now take for granted?” If they cannot – and they certainly cannot – offer a respectable answer, ask this follow-up question: “Then by what miracle will you have enough knowledge to re-engineer the larger economy in a way that improves overall human well-being?”

You’ll get an answer, for such interventionists are intoxicated with their own superiority and imagined intellectual genius. But if you pay close-enough attention to that answer, you’ll notice that it is little more than a stew of abstractions and aspirations. Nothing in the answer will give you confidence that that person should be trusted to intervene coercively into market processes. The market is cleverer than that person.

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The U.S. Is Still a Manufacturing Powerhouse

Here’s a letter to Fortune. (I thank my friend Ross Kaminsky for sharing this Fortune article with me.)

Editor:

Interviewed by Sasha Rogelberg, Eswar Prasad says many sensible things about America’s economy, but he inadvertently sows confusion by saying that the reason that the recent spike in oil prices isn’t inflicting more damage on America’s economy is because “the U.S. is not the manufacturing powerhouse it once used to be” (“America is lucky it’s no longer a manufacturing powerhouse—it’s what’s protecting the US economy from the worst of the oil shock, top economist says,” May 4).

Of course the U.S. produces a smaller share of global manufacturing output today than in the past. In 2024 the U.S. produced ‘only’ 17% of global manufacturing output – a smaller share than the 25% to 30% that we produced in the mid-1970s, and much less than the nearly 50% that we produced just after the second world war. But this smaller share is due not to a decline in U.S. manufacturing but, instead, to an increase in manufacturing in other countries. U.S. manufacturing output is today just shy of the all-time high that it hit in late 2007. U.S. industrial output – a broader category of non-services and non-agricultural production – hit its all-time high in September 2018 and is today also just shy of that all-time high.

The bottom line here is that U.S. manufacturing output today is second only to that of China – and on a per-capita basis the U.S. produces 156% more manufacturing output than does China. To describe the U.S. as “no longer a manufacturing powerhouse” is incorrect.

As for why rising oil prices aren’t inflicting more damage on America’s economy, the chief reason surely is that U.S. manufacturing is today far more energy-efficient than it was in the 1970s. According to EBSCO, “US industry has been making significant strides in energy efficiency, reducing the amount of energy used per dollar’s worth of goods (energy intensity) by 50 percent between 1970 and 2003 (from 9.13 to 4.32 thousand Btu). Energy use per dollar’s worth of goods produced has continued to fall.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

Bill Colton’s letter in today’s Wall Street Journal is excellent:

Phil Gramm and Michael Solon provide both evidence and clarity regarding the consumer harm done by the administration’s disastrous tariff fixation in their op-ed “The Trump Tax Increase of 2026” (April 29).

In my lifetime, I have voted Republican because of the party’s reliable pursuit of policies based on economic fundamentals: open markets, free trade, cost-effective regulation and minimum government intervention. President Trump’s trade policies clearly fail any reasonable test of economic reason—so where are sensible Republican voices in the House and Senate? Asleep at the switch it seems.

It’s particularly discouraging because the damage done by tariffs isn’t a complicated topic in economics. God help us if both parties choose now to ignore economic fundamentals.

Eric Boehm is correct: “Trump’s new European car tariffs demonstrate why his ‘deals’ are worthless.” A slice:

When President Donald Trump struck a trade deal with the European Union in July, officials on both sides stressed how it would ensure long-term stability to trans-Atlantic trade.

The Trump administration called the deal a “generational modernization of the transatlantic alliance.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it “restores stability and predictability” by locking in 15 percent tariffs on most European goods exported to the U.S., while most American imports to Europe would be exempt from tariffs.

In other words, Trump got what he wanted out of that deal: A reduction in tariffs on American exports and the establishment of a new, permanent baseline tariff on European goods. European leaders also felt like they’d won something: the 15 percent tariff was lower than the 25 percent tariff Trump had threatened, and the deal would stop Trump from hiking tariffs the next time he was in a bad mood.

So much for that.

On Friday, Trump announced that he would raise tariffs on European-made cars to 25 percent. (Those tariffs are authorized by Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, so they are not affected by the Supreme Court’s ruling in February that limited some of the president’s power to impose tariffs unilaterally.)

Responding to U.S. trade representative Jameison Greer’s economically ignorant defense of U.S. tariffs on Americans’ purchases of imported pick-up trucks, Adam Ozimek tweets: (HT Scott Lincicome)

I think if you believe domestic truck manufacturers can’t compete but we want to guarantee small truck production stays here at a cost to consumers just say that. There is no world where this is boosting global competitiveness or helping them “perfect their model”.

National Review‘s Charles Cooke understandably is flabbergasted by Elizabeth Warren’s dishonesty. A slice:

What fun it must be to play poisoner and physician.

In 2024, after the Biden administration successfully blocked a merger between JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, Senator Elizabeth Warren was elated. “This,” she tweeted out excitedly, “is a Biden win for flyers!”

Last week, however, as Spirit prepared to close its doors, Warren struck a different note. “The Big Four airlines (American, Delta, Southwest, United),” she lamented, “control 75% of the U.S. market. Fewer choices = higher prices for you.”

Well, then.

Aware, perhaps, that her supposed “win for flyers!” has been seamlessly transmuted into “fewer choices,” Warren is now helping the police look for the real killer. “Spiking fuel prices from Trump’s war,” Warren wrote on Saturday, “was the nail in the coffin for twice-bankrupted Spirit airline. FWIW, JetBlue merger failed because a judge, appointed by Ronald Reagan, said the deal was illegal.”

Superficially, both of those statements are true. It is, indeed, the case that the “nail in the coffin” was “spiking fuel prices,” and that prices spiked because of “Trump’s war.” It is also the case that “a judge, appointed by Ronald Reagan,” endorsed the government’s brief. But neither of those facts comes close to justifying the position that Warren took in 2023, or to letting her and the politics she espouses off the hook. As Warren herself notes, Spirit was in bad shape. It had been “twice-bankrupted,” it was heavily in debt, and both its fleet and its routes had considerably diminished in size. That phrase that Warren used — “nail in the coffin” — ineluctably implies that, by the time the fatal action occurred, there was already a corpse, and that it was inside a coffin that had been almost perfectly sealed. And so there was. Spirit, by April of this year, was such a mess that any noticeable disruption — be it a jump in costs, a strike, or even a period of terrible weather — was liable to drive it into the ground. Which is why, seeing this coming, the airline had tried earlier to merge with JetBlue. If Elizabeth Warren wishes, we can all point at Donald Trump and agree that his decision to invade Iran drove in the final nail. And then, having done that, we can ask about all the others.

Jimmy Alfonso Licon explains that “the knowledge problem dooms municipal grocery stores every time.” Here’s his conclusion:

Mamdani’s grocery store will fail. Even if shoppers save a dollar over Food Bazaar, that pound of apples will include appropriated tax dollars, food waste, labor distortions, and a thousand other costs that will make it wildly more expensive than the sticker would indicate. The real price is far more expensive than a market competitor’s, even if the shelf price doesn’t show it.

The price of apples is a secret language, the communication of a billion bits of dispersed, organic, intuitive knowledge of costs, trade-offs, and alternatives. All that information, over time and geography, quietly working away in the minds of Washington apple growers and migrant fruit pickers, beekeepers and cider makers, interstate truck drivers and NYC shelf stockers, is infused into the price sticker on a pound of apples in a market-driven grocery store. And Mamdani, like hubristic dreamers before him, thinks he can wipe all that away, slap on a price that looks like success to the voters, and hide all the rest in your tax bill.

Samuel Abrams reflects on the upbringing of “faculty brats” such as Zohran Mamdani and Katie Wilson, each the child of prominent academics – and each now mayors of big American cities. Two slices:

The term faculty brat isn’t an insult. It is a description of formation. Plenty of faculty children learn to be rigorous and humble. A growing number doesn’t; they instead emerge confident, articulate, ideologically coherent and almost entirely insulated from the consequences of being wrong.

I first encountered the type as an undergraduate at Stanford and later as a graduate student at Harvard. The faculty brats were at home with the buildings, the rituals, the language, the professors. Classmates and professors alike described them as the most privileged students on campus. Elite preparatory schools produce faculty brats, too. The category has migrated upward over the past generation, into the highest reaches of finance, technology and now city government. The fluency is the same. So is the insulation. And so, I now realize, is the unearned authority.

…..

The pattern extends beyond finance. New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is the son of Mahmood Mamdani, a professor of government at Columbia and one of the most prominent postcolonial theorists in the American academy, and noted filmmaker Mira Nair. The future mayor attended Bank Street, then Bronx Science, then Bowdoin. By his own description, his upbringing was “privileged.”

In Seattle, mayor Katie Wilson is the daughter of two Binghamton University biology professors, David Sloan Wilson and Anne Barrett Clark. Her parents helped pay for her years at Oxford. They were still paying her bills, including child care, into her 40s. She’s 43. When it became a campaign issue, Ms. Wilson defended the arrangement as “relatable.”

Both mayors are intelligent. Both are well-versed in the moral vocabulary of the institutions that produced them. Both now govern cities full of people who live inside the exact constraints—rent, payroll, trade-offs, consequences—from which they have been spared. The heart of the problem isn’t that they’re unqualified. It’s that they’re unacquainted.

The deeper issue is the monoculture that produced them. On campus, trade-offs can be abstracted away. Policies are often debated for their symbolic meaning rather than their practical effects. Moral clarity becomes a substitute for empirical testing. Dissent is treated as ignorance or bad faith. That works inside a seminar room. It fails in a city. And it produces leaders who mistake the applause of their peers for evidence that they are right.

None of this is inevitable. Universities still have the capacity to form serious, grounded citizens. But doing so requires reintroducing friction. It means real engagement with economics, scarcity and the unintended effects of well-meaning policy. It means time spent outside the academic bubble.

The Editorial Board of the Washington Post tells how Transportation secretary Sean Duffy – thankfully – won out over Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick to prevent a U.S. government bailout and takeover of Spirit Airlines. A slice:

When President Donald Trump suggested that the federal government “just buy” Spirit Airlines, Duffy stood up for taxpayers. “There’s been a lot of money thrown at Spirit, and they haven’t found their way into profitability,” he said on April 21. “If no one else wants to buy them, why would we buy them?”

Phil Magness is a fan of Stephen Macedo’s and Frances Lee’s book, In Covid’s Wake. A slice:

Macedo and Lee’s investigation of the COVID era surveys multiple similar incidents in the United States and abroad. They recount how Scott Atlas, a dissenting member of the US COVID task force who opposed lockdowns, was censured and pilloried by the Stanford faculty senate for his stance. They walk the reader through the debate over COVID’s origins, showing how political considerations privileged a natural outbreak at a Chinese wet market and discouraged investigation into a possible lab-leak incident at a nearby Chinese government facility that studied bat coronaviruses. They explore how scientific journals overstated the evidence for masks, following months of contradictory claims by health officials and an ambiguous scientific literature behind them. The resulting study paints an alarming portrait of scientific collapse during the worst pandemic in a century – one where the normal mechanisms of hypothesis testing, peer review, and, at an even more fundamental level, the ability to voice scientific dissent succumbed to intense political pressures to maintain a uniform professional “consensus” behind a pro-lockdown, pro-mask, pro-mandate policy response.

The book itself is part history of how this policy response came to be, part diagnostic analysis of its failures, and part warning about the dangers that the COVID response portends for a democratic society in future public health emergencies. The authors approach these subjects as political scientists who started from different sides of the COVID issue – one began the pandemic with reservations about the emerging lockdown policies, while the other acquiesced to the initial alarm of “two weeks to flatten the curve.” Both began to notice that something was amiss with the scientific response, particularly as it privileged and embraced an aggressive COVID containment policy that eschewed Western democratic norms and resembled China’s authoritarian governance structure.

My Mercatus Center colleague Rebecca Lowe is well worth listening to.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 316 of Thomas Sowell’s 2002 collection, Controversial Essays:

Has anyone ever asked what a full professor is full of? In some trendy new fields, the title “empty professor” would be more appropriate.

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The Correct Term is “Free Trade”

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal.

Editor:

Gerard Baker displays his usual impressive wisdom in decrying President Trump’s second-term pursuit of a misguided and extreme ideological agenda (“What Happened to the Pragmatic Trump of the First Term?” May 4). But Mr. Baker himself inadvertently grants the validity of one of the premises that fuels that extremism when he writes of “the elevation of international capital that ravaged communities at home.”

The correct name for “the elevation of international capital” is “free trade.” Why not use this term? It better reveals the innocent increased freedom of ordinary people to spend their incomes as they choose, while avoiding the mistaken suggestion that a lowering of trade barriers benefits Davos-vacationing capitalists at the expense of the masses.

And where are these “ravaged communities at home”? Politicians and pundits incessantly talk about these communities, but serious attempts to locate them encounter difficulties. The economist Jeremy Horpedahl studied the ten metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. that suffered the largest negative hits during the infamous “China Shock” of a quarter-century ago. According to Horpedahl, “all of the MSAs hit hard by the China Shock still managed to have significant and positive real wage growth across the distribution since 2001…. Wage gains in several of these places, in fact, are better than the national trends.”

Whenever economic change occurs, some particular workers lose jobs, and some particular locations lose business and population. Economic growth requires economic change and adjustment. It always has and always will. But the story of America is that ordinary people not only recover over time, but become wealthier. It’s an error to single out the freer trade of the past few decades as a unique source of economic change that justifies greater skepticism of globalization.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal decries the consequences of Lina Khan & Co.’s “neobrandeisian” revival of highly interventionist antitrust. A slice:

Recall how Timothy Wu, Jonathan Kanter, Lina Khan and others on the left sought to revive long discredited theories of antitrust that view nearly all mergers as anti-competitive. Mr. Kanter tested that view on the airline industry, with disastrous results.

In 2021 the Biden Justice Department challenged a JetBlue Airways alliance in the Northeast with American Airlines. In 2022 JetBlue offered Spirit a $3.8 billion merger lifeline so the combined companies could offer more competition for the four U.S. airline giants. Mr. Kanter’s Antitrust Division sued to block the merger in 2023 and prevailed in court in January 2024 in one of the most bizarre opinions we’ve ever read.

Federal Judge William Young admitted Spirit’s financial troubles. He also agreed that “an expansion of all aspects of JetBlue’s business—including network, fleet and loyalty program—would allow for more vigorous competition with the Big Four, which carry most passengers in the country.”

He still ruled the merger an antitrust violation because it would eliminate one low-fare option on some routes. JetBlue ended its merger bid soon thereafter, and Spirit declared bankruptcy in November 2024, long before the Iran war fuel spike. Now it’s shutting down for good. As these columns warned after the judge’s ruling, “Justice has essentially set Spirit up for failure.”

Well, congratulations Judge Young. With Spirit’s demise, that low-fare option is gone. The big boys are likely to snap up Spirit’s planes, airport gates and other assets, and there will be less competition than if the merger had been allowed. JetBlue is also struggling these days. Judge Young owes those Spirit employees and the traveling public an apology, and so does Mr. Kanter.

Writing in the Washington Post, GMU Econ alum Julia Cartwright explains that Americans would have access to more “affordable” housing if Americans had access to more construction workers. A slice:

Construction is already heavily dependent on immigrant labor, and the sector faces a serious worker shortage, exacerbated by the impact of the Trump administration’s tough immigration agenda. One possible solution would involve increasing the number of temporary worker visas that allow foreign workers to fill short-term labor needs. This would ease the labor shortage and relieve upward wage pressure. Streamlining occupational licensing across state lines would let workers follow demand rather than being trapped in a state by patchwork credentialing rules. And repealing prevailing wage laws, which mandate union-scale compensation on any project touching public funds, would directly bring down the cost of building the units most intended to help low-income renters.

Ilya Somin, a GMU colleague over in the Scalia School of Law, compares European libertarians to American libertarians. A slice:

Not surprisingly, there is a large overlap between the two groups’ views and priorities. A high proportion of what I saw and heard at LibertyCon Europe differed little from what I would expect to see at a comparable US event. For example, libertarians on both sides of the Atlantic are deeply concerned about excessive government spending and regulation, growing efforts to impose restrictions on access to various websites (often under the pretext of protecting children), protectionist restrictions on international trade, and more. American libertarians have greatly influenced their European counterparts, and vice versa. As the great Austrian libertarian economist F.A. Hayek put it, “[t]he growth of ideas is an international process.”

There are, however, several noteworthy differences. First and foremost, it is notable that European libertarians have an almost unanimously negative view of Donald Trump and his administration. Many, probably most, American libertarians are similarly negative. But there is a significant faction that is “anti-anti Trump” (holding that Trump is flawed, but still preferable to his opponents, or at least no worse than them), and a smaller but vocal group that is actively pro-Trump.

Laura Williams explains why beef prices in the U.S. are likely to remain high. A slice:

Capital equipment required to keep cattle ranches running is increasingly expensive, partly due to the high cost of importing steel and other metals. Tariffs of 50 percent apply to materials coming in from China and Canada, some of our most prolific trading partners.

The Washington Post‘s Editorial Board reports on the likely loss of tax revenue that will be the consequence the State of California’s attempt to seize an additional five percent of its wealthiest citizens’ assets. A slice:

Steven Spielberg, for example, denies the billionaire tax had anything to do with his entirely coincidental relocation to New York City at the start of the year, but the timing sure was convenient, since the initiative specifies that the billionaire tax will be retroactively assessed on anyone residing in California as of Jan. 1.

Memo to California voters: If it is possible for a citizen of your state to lower their tax bill by moving to Manhattan, something has gone seriously wrong.

Ironically, timing the tax to the start of the year was supposed to make it harder for billionaires to avoid paying. Instead, this too-clever-by-half design forced them to jump the gun, even though doing it this way was almost certainly illegal and retroactive taxation would be challenged in court.

Human Progress tweets:

In 1826, a ream of 500 sheets of paper cost about $5. With average wages near five cents an hour, the time price was 100 hours.

Paper was precious.

Today, 500 higher-quality sheets sell for $7.99 at Staples. With average wages around $36.86 an hour, the time price is just 13 minutes.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 81 of the late I.M.D. Little‘s 1999 book, Collection and Recollections, as shared by Douglas Irwin in Irwin’s December 2024 essay “Changing the Trade and Development Consensus“:

We were slow to realize that the most prevalent reason for market failure was government itself. Governments were driven by false economic ideology – heavy industry, protection, import substitution – and also became increasingly self-serving and corrupt.

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China Shock 2.0 vs. China Shock 1.0

This post by Oxford economist J. Zachary Mazlish is very good; I encourage you to read it. (HT David Levey)

Nevertheless, there are two points that I think to be worth making in response to Mazlish’s post.

I will here make one of these points. I’ll make the other of these points in a follow-up post at Cafe Hayek.

Mazlish writes:

These doomsayers are responding to what has been dubbed “China Shock 2.0.” China Shock 1.0 was the rise in Chinese exports of low value added goods that occurred in the early 2000s. Shock 2.0 is when China begins exporting the high value added goods that constitute what remains of the industrial bases in the US and Europe.

Critics of trade with China do indeed worry about what will happen outside of China when that country “begins exporting … high value added goods” – goods different from the low-value-added goods that China exported during the so-called “China Shock 1.0.”

But reality isn’t optional. President Xi and his many mandarins can escape neither the reality of scarcity nor the principle of comparative advantage. If China does indeed start producing more high-value-added goods, it will have to produce fewer of other goods. And the goods that in China will likely be produced in reduced quantities are the kinds of goods that China produced and exported during the “China Shock 1.0.”

And so shouldn’t Americans who decry the consequences of “China Shock 1.0” applaud rather than agonize over this so-called “China Shock 2.0”?

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Some Links

Scott Lincicome, Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, and Chad Smitson explain that “the AI boom is being fueled by imports — and free trade.” Two slices:

Data published today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis show that domestic investment in artificial intelligence is currently acting as a massive tailwind for US economic growth (gross domestic product). The data also show that this American investment boom is being fueled by imports of the servers and other things that datacenters and related AI technologies need.

…..

Surely, the AI boom isn’t solely due to free trade, and we wouldn’t expect it to cause every other US industry to boom like AI is today. But one still must wonder how many other American industries might similarly benefit from the same “special” treatment that the AI industry enjoys today—i.e., the treatment almost every industry received before the Trump tariff wall was erected last year.

National Review‘s John Puri is correct:

As the leader of a bureaucracy constructed by progressives, President Trump is like a toddler in a toy store. The levers and pulleys of regulatory power all around him present endless opportunities to exert his will. These instruments were designed for supposedly dispassionate experts who falsely believed that they could rationalize society and properly organize the economy. Trump yanks on them to do what he pleases.

…..

In any case, the past year has demonstrated the danger of vesting merger-review power in one person. When the president exploits the law to bully the market, merger-review power becomes a tool of unilateral governance. An uninhibited executive can hold multibillion-dollar deals hostage until he receives a payoff or is handed effective control of a company. He can jawbone media companies into softening their coverage. He can pick the winners and losers of bidding wars.

The Wall Street Journal‘s Editorial Board busts the ‘progressive’ myth that recent changes in U.S. election law are stifling voting by minorities. A slice:

Fast forward to this week, and the political left is again heralding the return of Jim Crow after the High Court ruled that carving up districts based on race is illegal (Louisiana v. Callais). Amid the overwrought reaction, let’s see what happened to minority voting and representation in Congress since the Court’s 2013 Shelby County landmark.

Justice Samuel Alito’s majority opinion this week highlighted America’s racial progress. He quoted Shelby County as saying that since the VRA’s enactment in 1965, “voting tests were abolished, disparities in voter registration and turnout due to race were erased, and African-Americans attained political office in record numbers.” He added that “black voters now participate in elections at similar rates as the rest of the electorate.”

The left ignores all this, but let’s look at the numbers. Barack Obama’s candidacy super-charged black turnout in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections such that it matched that of whites. The share of blacks voting in presidential elections has since fallen somewhat from those record highs, though it has increased in midterm elections.

Some 45.1% of the black voting-age citizen population cast ballots in 2022 and 51.1% did in 2018, according to Census Bureau data. That’s significantly higher than the black turnouts in three midterms prior to Shelby County; 2010 (43.5%), 2006 (41%) and 2002 (42.3%).

Voting among Hispanics and Asians has also increased over the last two decades. About 40% of Asian citizens cast ballots in the 2018 and 2022 midterms, versus 30.8% in 2010. Hispanic turnout rose to 37.9% in 2022 and 40.4% in 2018 from 31.2% in 2010. In 2020 the share of eligible Hispanics (53.7%) and Asian voters (59.7%) who cast ballots hit records.

Also writing sensibly about election laws is Jason Willick. A slice:

Representative democracy isn’t about perfect fairness, which is impossible; it has various permutations, and all have benefits and drawbacks. In the decades leading up to this Supreme Court decision, American democracy was structured to increase the number of majority-minority districts, and therefore the number of racial minority members of the House of Representatives.

One trade-off was that Black politicians were steered toward Black constituencies, changing their political incentives and potentially making it harder to get elected to statewide or national offices requiring a multiracial support base. If Barack Obama had prevailed in his 2000 campaign for Congress in Illinois’ then-majority-Black 1st District, for example, it’s an open question whether he would have ascended to the Senate and the presidency. The Callais decision, by creating the conditions for more racially integrated political competition, could amplify rather than reduce Black political power over the long term.

Bob Graboyes offers further valuable reflections on Virginia’s recent gerrymandering escapade.

Phil Magness and Fabio Rojas discuss postliberalism.

My GMU colleague over in the Scalia School of Law Ilya Somin defends himself against knee-jerk, ignorant assertions of MAGA enthusiasts:

I filed The tariff case together with the conservative @LJCenter. And I’m the kind of liberal who was involved in legal challenges to Obamacare, advocates for vastly expanded protection for constitutional property rights, opposed affirmative action, and would roll back most of the New Deal-era expansion of federal power.

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