Here’s the abstract of a new paper out of the Richmond Fed [emphasis added]: (HT Scott Lincicome)
This paper analyzes the effect of the 2025 U.S. import tariffs on import prices and local labor-markets. To that end, we use highly disaggregated customs data to construct realized tariff rates from actual duty collections, rather than announced statutory schedules. An important contribution is that we document a large and persistent gap between the two measures, driven by within-country product reallocation, cross-country sourcing shifts, and implementation frictions. This implies that statutory rates are a poor proxy for the trade shock that firms actually faced. Using realized tariffs, we find that pass-through of realized tariffs into import prices was close to one hundred percent, with negligible adjustment by foreign exporters and a significant reduction in import quantities. When we examine local labor-market consequences of the increase in import tariffs, we find that counties which are more exposed to import-competing sectors experienced small declines in unemployment and that rising input costs weighed marginally on labor-force participation. Both effects, though heterogeneous across space, are economically negligible. In contrast to the 2018–2019 tariff episode, where rising input costs dominated, resulting in lower manufacturing employment, the 2025 tariffs did not generate large labor-market changes in either direction.
The movement of millions of Americans through our domestic aviation ecosystem represents a multibillion-dollar industry and supports billions more in downstream annual economic value. Not only is it irresponsible to continue to treat both our current TSA employees and the American public as negotiating chips in border and immigration security funding negotiations; it is also unnecessary. More than 20 airports around the country have experienced almost no delays during this lapse in DHS funding because they are staffed by private contractors under a TSA program known as the Screening Partnership Program (SPP), which allows airports to “opt in” to having qualified private companies handle screening under TSA’s oversight. Proprietary industry analysis highlights the ability of the SPP to save taxpayers as much as 15 percent per airport — potentially $1 billion annually if scaled nationwide.
This program must be expanded and incentivized by empowering airports to have a greater say in who runs their security and incentivizing private investment in security upgrades, and other, more comprehensive options for privatization should be made available.
Also calling for the privatization of U.S. airport security screening is Marc Scribner. Here’s his conclusion:
To ensure that airports aren’t stuck with the unfunded mandate that led airlines to lobby for security nationalization after the 9/11 attacks, the longstanding September 11 Security Fee assessed on airline tickets should be converted into a local airport user fee. Airlines would continue to collect the money, but instead of remitting the revenue to the Treasury—where much of it is diverted for nonsecurity purposes—it would be paid directly to airports to fund TSA-approved security projects and operations.
The TSA’s defective design is one of many errors made by elected officials in response to 9/11—and American travelers are paying the price. Congress limiting TSA’s role is the only way to insulate airport security from dysfunctional Washington politics.
David Henderson shares four timeless facts about taxes.
Paul Mueller talks with Julia Cartwright and Tom Savidge about taxing wealth.
C. Jarrett Dieterle decries “the bipartisan war on cheap food.”
David Harsanyi rightly ridicules Zohran Mamdani’s economic cluelessness. A slice:
The latest is New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has promised to open five city-run markets to combat “out-of-control” grocery prices by getting rid of the “profit motive,” passing on the savings to consumers.
The first glaring problem with Mamdani’s plan is that the “profit motive” is the best device to <icreate savings.


The colonists understood their obligation to defend their families, their homes, and their town. Fathers and sons, young and old, the men of Lexington were the first to pledge their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor. They hoped to prevent a war, but they would not surrender their liberties.
The underlying reason that modern politics in its implementation breaks bad is the unexamined though fervent belief in statism, the ancient and now nearly universal conviction that a statist top-down policy, rather than a liberal bottom-up permission, does the job of human flourishing promptly and securely, by plan. Caesar believed it, and thereby shattered the Roman Republic.
In the past few years, online commentators have repeatedly noted how much more affordable homes were in the 1950s, citing statistics that show back then a new home typically cost about two to three times the median household income, while today one costs about six times the median household income.
Modern libertarianism is a vision of a radical and just future – but one whose contours are inherent in the meaning of the American Revolution, arising from European traditions of natural law, natural rights, a relationship between man and the state that ought to be contractual and reciprocal; and a vision of man that is rooted in the best of the Western Christian tradition. That vision sees the individual soul as so worth saving that God-made-man would sacrifice himself to do so. And that individual soul is responsible for the choices that can guarantee its own salvation.
