Tom Savidge offers a brief history of federal transfers to the states.
Sanders wants to confiscate 5 percent of all assets every year from America’s billionaires, with the goal of stealing half their fortunes. He estimates, unrealistically, that this could raise $4.4 trillion over 10 years to fund a wish list of progressive fantasies, including something akin to a universal basic income and more government-managed health care.
The socialist’s goal is to make this a litmus test for 2028 Democratic presidential candidates, just as his Medicare-for-all proposal was in 2020. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-California), who has made no secret of his presidential ambitions, will sponsor the House version of Sanders’s bill.
Even for billionaires, a 5 percent tax on every asset they own would virtually wipe out any gains they make in a normal year. No one that rich keeps all their money sitting around in a checking account. They own real estate and make long-term investments that might not pay out for years.
In addition to being unconstitutional, a federal tax on unrealized gains would force people to sell illiquid assets every year. A lot of AI founders, for example, are billionaires on paper, but their shares are effectively worthless until their businesses deliver on their promises and go public.
Despite their importance, however, Mountain Pass is the only rare-earth mine operating in the United States. Nearly all the world’s rare earths are mined and refined elsewhere—mostly in China, which, over the past several decades, has built an industrial empire around the extraction and processing of these materials. China now accounts for about 70 percent of global rare-earth mining and over 90 percent of the refining and magnet production.
That wasn’t always the case. When the Mountain Pass mine opened in 1952, it quickly became the world’s leading source of rare earths, supplying materials for everything from color televisions to the earliest computers. Well into the 1980s, the mine continued to produce the majority of global rare-earth output. But as environmental regulations tightened and costs rose in the U.S., China began dominating the market through a mix of cheap labor, lax standards, and aggressive industrial policy. By the early 2000s, the Mountain Pass mine had shuttered. China controlled nearly the entire supply chain.
That reliance on Beijing is increasingly uncomfortable for Washington and for the industries that depend on these materials. Mountain Pass eventually reopened in 2018 and now produces roughly 47,000 metric tons of rare earths annually—just over 10 percent of global supply. Some initial refining occurs on-site, but most of the material still gets shipped to China for final processing before being sold to manufacturers around the world.
The stakes have only risen. In April, China retaliated to a round of U.S. tariffs by restricting exports of seven rare-earth elements to the United States. In October, Beijing took an even more extreme measure, threatening to curb trade of any minerals or products that contain even trace amounts of those elements. The move rattled supply chains and exposed a hard truth: the world’s most technologically advanced nation now depends on its largest geopolitical rival for the materials that make its most important technologies work.
Uncomfortable questions now confront U.S. policy. How did America lose control of these materials? Can it rebuild its capacity in time? And if it does, can it do so without sacrificing its market dynamism or succumbing to the kind of state-directed industrial policy that too often stifles innovation?
Into this moment comes a new working paper from two Northwestern University economists, Tamar den Besten and Diego Känzig, which presents a comprehensive empirical study of American tariff policy over nearly two centuries. Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in February 2026, the paper draws on nearly 200 years of U.S. data from 1840 to 2024 to ask a deceptively simple question: What actually happens to the economy when tariffs go up?
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Using these 21 exogenous tariff events as a statistical instrument (a way of isolating genuine policy-driven variation from noise), den Besten and Känzig estimate how the U.S. economy responds to a tariff shock. Their benchmark is a one-percentage-point increase in the average tariff rate on dutiable imports.
In the authors’ model, the first economic response to tariffs is that imports fall sharply, about 4% on impact, which is precisely what tariffs are designed to do. But the story doesn’t stop there. Exports, after a brief pause, also decline, falling roughly 2% at their trough. The exchange rate appreciates as import demand contracts, which erodes the competitiveness of American goods abroad. Trading partners also retaliate and adjust their own sourcing. The result is a broad contraction in trade on both sides of the ledger, as shown in the authors’ figure below.
Most striking is what happens to domestic production. A one-percentage-point tariff increase leads to a peak decline in real GDP of around 0.9%, a large and persistent effect that continues for at least 8 years after the shock. Manufacturing output, the sector tariffs are most often designed to protect, falls by more than 1.5% at its peak. Real wages for manufacturing workers also decline.
In other words, tariffs do not succeed in their stated goal of shielding American industry. The general-equilibrium effects—higher input costs, a stronger dollar, weaker exports, reduced foreign demand—more than offset whatever protection individual sectors might receive.
This may also largely explain why employment in the manufacturing sector was more than 100,000 jobs below pre-election trends by the end of 2025.
“Tariffs Force Down Heavy Equipment Sales and Jobs” https://share.google/GOIY8WVZ8P3OA4mrF “it is more economical to build a forklift overseas, import it and pay the tariff”
“multiple layers of tariffs on inputs have made it even more expensive to build machinery on American soil”
Since Kissinger did not intend his transcripts to be public, the collection is a window both into him as a person and into the operations of the U.S. national security state. Four themes stand out.
The first is the sheer prevalence of systematic deception. For Kissinger, lies weren’t a strategic tool limited to selective uses in international statecraft. They appear to have been part of his personal makeup. Wells notes that he was “a habitual and easy liar.” Throughout the transcripts, he deceives his foreign counterparts, his colleagues, and the media.


As the scope and role of government expands – whether by covering a larger area and population or by performing a wider variety of functions – the connection between the people governed and the people governing becomes attenuated. It becomes impossible for any large fraction of the citizens to be reasonably well informed about all items on the vastly enlarged government agenda, and, beyond a point, even about all major items. The bureaucracy that is needed to administer government grows and increasingly interposes itself between the citizenry and the representatives they choose. It becomes both a vehicle whereby special interests can achieve their objectives and an important special interest in its own right.
But people will say: if foreigners swamp us with their products, they will carry off our money.
Fix prices — and the problems will multiply; let prices find their own level in free markets — and the problems will disappear.
For most of us, it is only with age, if ever, that we acquire the wisdom to be content to live under always imperfect rules that still permit us imperfect men to make our own imperfect decisions, with consequences for each man and for all men that no one can fully predict and that will always be something less than the New Jerusalem.
