Just for fun

by Russ Roberts on January 3, 2008

in Politics

Let’s see who gets the closest (from Real Clear Politics):


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Ed January 3, 2008 at 6:40 pm

Don't forget to compare the results to the futures markets to see if the free market is a better indicator of actual results:




Mesa Econoguy January 3, 2008 at 9:48 pm

I think oil futures won today….

Mesa Econoguy January 3, 2008 at 9:54 pm

Also, I’m fairly certain that Iowa Caucasers (Caucasians? Caucasors? Caucologists?) never huddled beneath the buttonwood tree

Mesa Econoguy January 3, 2008 at 10:12 pm

Obama and Huckabee have won Iowa.

Here's a(nother) prediction:

Huckabee will win the Arkansas primary. Then he will lose to Missouri, 38-7 in a rushing-dominated game.

And he will not win one single other state primary.

Not so sure about Oprah….

tw January 3, 2008 at 10:15 pm

Russ, from your posting it looks like the Des Moines Register "won" the competition, right? Logically, that makes sense as they should be able to poll their own residents in the most effective manner, espeically given the quirky nature of how people vote in a caucus.

legaleagle January 3, 2008 at 11:43 pm

Some interesting CNN entrance poll results for Ron Paul:

Among self-labelled "moderates" who voted Republican, Paul led in a tie with Romney (26% each).

Among voters 17-29 Paul got 21% of the vote, versus McCain with 7% and Thompson with just 4%.

Dr. Paul got 54% of the vote among voters for Republicans who said they are "angry" with President Bush, versus only 13% for McCain and even less for the other Republican candidates.

Paul scored higher among voters whose top issue was "Economy" than among voters whose top issue was "War in Iraq"

Paul at 29% led all the Republicans among voters who labeled themselves as "Independent" (vs. 19% for Romney and 17% for Huckabee).

Compared to other Republicans Paul had a higher percentage of low-income than high-income voters (interesting in light of Paul's fundraising prowess).

0% of Paul voters labeled themselves as "liberal" (contrary to theory that much of Paul's support comes from anti-war liberals crossing over from the Democrats).

More at

Russ Nelson January 4, 2008 at 3:15 am

Huckabee is not electable.

Methinks January 4, 2008 at 9:11 am

interesting facts about Ron Paul, legaleagle.

a factoid I found interesting is that a full 1/3 of Iowans are registered independents and can't vote in the primary at all.

Jon January 4, 2008 at 9:15 am

Ron Paul Hit double digits …

I'll take that as a victory… of sorts.

Martin Brock January 4, 2008 at 3:52 pm

As a Pauli, I don't know whether my guy beat expectations, but I'd have been happier if he had placed third, because he'd then have earned lots of free air time.

Morally obliged to vote for the candidate of my choice? No. I'm not morally obliged to vote for anyone. My vote is largely inconsequential. If I wrote in the name of Jesus or Hitler, my vote would be precisely as consequential, and if I voted for the candidate of my choice, I might choose Russ Roberts over Ron Paul. I don't much like Paul's talk on immigration, and I think a gold standard is folly, and I don't want to repeal the income tax, only to reform it into a progressive consumption tax. To vote for my sincerest choice for Supreme Leader of the New American Century, I'd write in my own name … but then I'd have to shoot myself.

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