Stimulus Working? More Evidence That It’s Not

by Don Boudreaux on March 10, 2010

in Intervention,Seen and Unseen,Stimulus

Writing in Investor’s Business Daily, Robert Higgs documents the fact that private investment is drying up in the U.S. – and he explains why.  Here’s a key selection:

Unfortunately, while private investment is the engine of economic growth, government spending (despite what generations of Keynesian economists have asserted) is the brake. To understand this negative relationship, we need only scrutinize how the federal government’s spending is determined: namely, by political processes devoid of economic rationality.

In this light, we can appreciate that enhanced government spending does not bulk up the economy, nor merely crowd out worthwhile private activity. Instead, it undercuts, penalizes and distorts everything that private parties attempt to do to create wealth. Ham-fisted government regulations and additional taxes are known killers of economic growth.

The investors’ famine and the government’s feast therefore are not merely coincidental, but causally connected.

Making matters worse, the explosion of the federal government’s size, scope and power since mid-2008 has created enormous uncertainties among investors.

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  • Forgot to post this the other day -

    The Stimulus Evidence One Year On by Robert J. Barro.
  • Toro
    Why would we expect capital expenditure not to dry up when capacity utilization is so low? Do we expect businesses to spend when there is too much capacity in the world?
  • Robby 777
    Are some of you finally waking up? Obama socialism is rampant. Some of you should have been clued in when, in the first THREE WEEKS of his administration, he spends more than all of the preceding presidents COMBINED, double the deficit, gets several stimulus bills (not just the 787 Bil. one), and sends more troops.... Duh !!!
  • indianajim
    Higgs is right that ham-handed government regs and taxes "cuts, penalizes and distorts everything that private parties attempt to do to create wealth."

    The ability of relative prices to signal resource usage in ways that have the greatest chance to create the greatest private wealth is reduced with each additional governmental intervention. Why are government officials destroying the "incredible bread machine?" The reasons are likely not the same for each ham-handed interventionist; ignorance, stupidity, and the pursuit of relative status for government relative to the private sector suggest themselves.
  • johndewey
    It's not difficult to understand why business leaders are deferring business investment. Who would dare to expand a business if doing so would require additional employees? The uncertainty of health care costs - uncertainty about mandates and taxation - renders speculative any cost-benefit analysis of business investment opportunities.
  • MichaelSmith
    I agree, and it's not just Obama's health care "reform" initiative that's creating uncertainty.

    Consider the other major parts of his agenda:

    1) An unlimited, open-ended financial commitment to keep Government Motors in operation -- which creates uncertainty about the ultimate burden on taxpayers.

    2) An unlimited, open-ended financial commitment to keep Fannie and Freddie in operation -- which creates additional uncertainty about the ultimate burden on taxpayers.

    3) Possibility of additional “stimulus” spending.

    4) Cap and Trade legislation “guaranteed” to make electricity rates “skyrocket” and “bankrupt” any new coal-fired power plants (Obama‘s words). This legislation will no doubt include vast new subsidies for “green energy” as well as additional taxes to pay for it.

    This will no doubt be another multi-thousand page “mega bill” that grants vast new powers to government -- just as the healthcare “reform” bill grants sweeping new powers to the Secretary of HEW and the new “Health Choices Commissioner”.

    Note that the EPA is being maneuvered into position to act as a club if Congress doesn’t pass this legislation -- so either way, it looks like crippling new anti-CO2 regulations are headed our way.

    5) Elimination of the secret ballot for union elections.

    6) Federally-imposed wage & benefit "settlements" in the event of a deadlock between unions and management in negotiations.

    7) Elimination of management’s right to hire replacement workers for economic strikers.

    Items 5, 6, and 7 alone create great uncertainty about the possible future earnings of virtually every business in America.

    8) Expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

    9) “Amending” free trade agreements.

    10) Tax increases for businesses that outsource any of their operations.

    11) A windfall profits tax on oil companies.

    12) More increases in the minimum wage.

    13) Expand the Family Medical Leave Act so that it applies to many more small businesses than it does at present -- this makes it apply to the businesses that can least afford to comply with it.

    And how soon after this federal regulation is applied to more small businesses will we hear calls to apply ALL federal labor regulations to small businesses?

    Those are just some of Obama's campaign promises that I remember off the top of my head. Go to Obama’s web site if you want more: http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

    Who on earth can know what economic havoc will be wreaked if this agenda gets passed.
  • Also, a “reworking” (read: even less efficient, less consumer-friendly scheme) of the financial regulatory structure, certain to impede lending, investment, and necessary financial intermediation for economic growth.
  • Randy
    Yep. Regime uncertainty in real time.
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