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The Science, or ‘Science,’ of the Spending Multiplier

Last week I linked to my friend Bob Gelfond’s complaint – quite justified, in my view – of the unscientific nature of much of the work on the Keynesian multiplier.  Here’s a link to a website for a project that Bob launched for the purpose of assessing (as the site says)

how well economists have demonstrated that the spending multiplier is greater than one. Specifically, we are seeking an “out-of-sample” (“OS”) test performed successfully. More on the importance of this form of testing can be found here.

At this site, you can also propose wagers, on this matter, with Bob.