… is from page 436 of Roger Garrison’s Spring/Summer 2012 Cato Journal paper, “Natural Rates of Interest and Sustainable Growth“:
Finally, it is implausible that the Federal Reserve’s policymakers, who could not tell whether we were in a bubble until it burst, could nonetheless determine the optimal policy for avoiding busts and then, once the busts come, for nursing the economy back to health. Given the policymakers’ incentives, a central bank acts to extend an ongoing boom and then, when it eventually ends in a bust, to initiate another one. And if the market were allowed to nurse the economy back to macroeconomic health, a central bank even of the most beneficent sort could only hope to do no harm. The hope of achieving long-run sustainable growth can only rest on the prospects for decentralizing the business of banking.


Finally, it is implausible that the Federal Reserve’s policymakers, who could not tell whether we were in a bubble until it burst, could nonetheless determine the optimal policy for avoiding busts and then, once the busts come, for nursing the economy back to health. Given the policymakers’ incentives, a central bank acts to extend an ongoing boom and then, when it eventually ends in a bust, to initiate another one. And if the market were allowed to nurse the economy back to macroeconomic health, a central bank even of the most beneficent sort could only hope to do no harm. The hope of achieving long-run sustainable growth can only rest on the prospects for decentralizing the business of banking.
