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A Comparison of Trump 45 to Trump 47

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal.

Editor:

Steve Moore’s case that the U.S. economy today is “Trumping expectations” consists chiefly of claims that today’s economy is better than the economy under Biden (Letters, January 27). Given Biden’s colossally bad economic policies, however, this comparison tells us little about the merits of Mr. Trump’s second-term policies.

Here’s a better comparison. As I write this letter mid-day on January 26th, 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 17 percent above its close on election day 2024. But on January 26th, 2018 – the same distance into Trump’s first term as we are now into his second term – the DJIA closed 45 percent above its close on election day 2016.

While the stock market isn’t the whole of the economy, it’s no minor barometer of the economy’s performance and, importantly, of expectations of future performance. The far more market-friendly policies of Mr. Trump’s first term seem to have been vastly better for America’s economy than are his dirigiste, hyperactive, they-have-Elizabeth-Warren-secretly-smiling interventions of his second term.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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