James Ragan reported in his May 1981 paper, “Turnover in the Labor Market: A Study of Quit and Layoff Rates,” that the average monthly rate of manufacturing-job layoffs in the U.S. from 1958 through 1980 was 1.6 percent. (See this paper’s Table 1, and that Table’s footnote.)
FRED has monthly data, starting in December 2000, on layoffs and discharges in manufacturing. By dividing these data by total manufacturing employment – which the FRED site easily allows users to do – we can calculate the monthly layoff and discharge rate of manufacturing workers in the U.S. from December 2000 through today. (November 2025 is the most recent month for which these data are reported.) That rate is 1.1 percent.
Here’s a screenshot of this graphic depiction of these data.
So what about data for the years 1981 through November 2000? I asked my excellent research assistant, Gabby Beaumont Smith, to track down these data. She found nothing for 1981 through 1993, but she did find enough reliable data to construct sound estimates of the monthly manufacturing layoff and discharge figures starting in January 1994 through November 2000. The average monthly rate of manufacturing layoffs and discharges during this time period was 1.3 percent – so lower than for the years 1958 through 1980.
Note two relevant facts. First, 1958-1980 was before globalization accelerated. Second, January 1994 is the month that NAFTA began.
Calculating the average monthly rate of manufacturing-employment layoffs and discharges for January 1994 through November 2025 yields this rate: 1.2%
In summary, from 1958 through 1980, the average monthly manufacturing-job layoff rate was 1.6%. From January 1994 through today (November 2025), that monthly rate is lower, at 1.2%. And it’s even lower if we start the analysis in December 2000.
American manufacturing workers were more likely to lose their jobs before globalization accelerated than since.
