Comparing U.S. Economic Performance in 2025 to that of 2017

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In the Washington Post, Phil Gramm and I compare the performance of America’s economy in 2025 (the first year of Trump’s second term) to the performance of America’s economy in 2017 (the first year of Trump’s first term). By most measures, America’s economy performed better in 2017 – the year before Trump imposed his first round of tariffs – than it performed in 2025.

Trump’s claim that his second-term tariffs are working wonders for America’s economy is, shall we say, dubious.

Here’s a slice from our piece:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished last year 15 percent higher than its close on election day 2024, but its close at the end of 2017 was a whopping 35 percent above its close on Election Day 2016. The same can be said for the S&P 500 (15 percent compared with 25 percent) and the NASDAQ (26 percent compared with 33 percent).

DBx: By the way, even if we extend the comparisons through the latest close of each index (on Friday, February 6th, 2026), the financial-markets’ from election day 2024 through February 6th, 2026, performed less well than they did from election day 2016 through the final trading day of 2017. When the market closed this past Friday, the DJIA was then 19% above its election-day 2024 close, the S&P 500 was 20% above that election-day close, and the NASDAQ (which is very slightly down in 2026) was 25% above that election-day close.