Open Letter to Jeremy Warner

by Don Boudreaux on March 20, 2010

in Balance of Payments,Debt and Deficits,Myths and Fallacies,The Future,Trade

Mr Jeremy Warner
London Daily Telegraph

Dear Mr Warner:

Your criticisms of Paul Krugman’s recent embrace of protectionism are eloquent (“Paul Krugman, the Nobel prize winner who threatens the world,” March 19).

But I pick one nit: you write as if the alleged trade imbalances between the U.S. and China are real.  They are not.  The Chinese sell Americans goods; we pay with dollars; the Chinese then use many of these dollars to buy IOUs issued by Uncle Sam.  Although the result is a measured U.S. current-account deficit with China, there’s no more any economically meaningful “imbalance” in such a result than there would be if, say, Texans lent a lot more of their dollars to Uncle Sam.

Talk of imbalances in trade diverts attention from the real problem: Uncle Sam’s gargantuan debt.  That fast-accumulating debt is a huge problem.  It is caused, though, not by trade with China but, rather, by Washington’s lack of fiscal discipline.  Unless you believe that protectionism (and only protectionism) would induce Congress to be more fiscally disciplined, you should avoid all talk of imbalances in trade and instead talk of imbalances in political institutions that encourage politicians to give disproportionate weight to the demands of current voters and to ignore the resulting ill-consequences that will curse future generations.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux

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  • jacoboost
    I still can't believe that professional economists actually give a hoot about such things as "trade imbalances."
  • vikingvista
    All of this confusion is washed away with the realization that money is just another trade-able good like chairs, axle grease, wicker baskets, and plumbing services. Those who fret over international trade imbalances have a strange fetish for accumulating Federal Reserve notes, instead of the stuff for which those notes are traded.

    The real problem is not with what people want to trade, but with what is being done to one of those commodities--the US dollar--by the monopoly political agencies empowered to manipulate its value.
  • Seekingexports
    Congress more "fiscally disciplined" ? Absolutely they should be.
    China funding U.S. IOUs? Yes, to some extent.
    China is now using foreign exchange to also fund their sorverign wealth fund (CIC). Also, without much publicity, foreign exchange is being used as an injection to shore bank loans in China like they did during the last Asian fiscal crisis: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/24/1579...
  • my_d
    Banning imports from China will never work since China produced stuff more efficient than Mexico and by moving factory to Mexico, US will lost a lot of money in tariff and such. These is just couple negative factor resulting from banning imports from China.
  • Public debt is another means of inter-generational scam ...
  • vikingvista
    Don't think it benefits the current generation. The beneficiaries are small in number, and does not include the economy as a whole.
  • TTE
    Needs a delete function....
  • Tired of the Bull
    I would ban most imports from China. That would starve the real beast.
    Let some other country like Mexico prosper for a while instead. You love your fellow Mexican so much, you'd like to move all of Toyota's factories
    over there. So let China move more production to Mexico. They'll have to learn Spanish.

    The Chinese won't support sanctions against Iran to stop it's nuclear missile and death to the world plans. Therefore, I support a ban on their products until such time as they see the light. It is called hardball, instead of the softball approach that you advocate.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast

    You can blame your Aunt Sally if you want, it doesn't change reality.
  • martinbrock
    Iran has no nuclear missile and death to the world plans, so you might as well ban imports from China until the pink elephant in the corner stops farting.

    But here's the scary thing. History is disturbingly clear. If the recession deepens and enough people are frustrated enough long enough by the scarcity of opportunity in our quasi-fascist economy, people will believe such hysterical nonsense regardless of any facts, and we'll impoverish ourselves further by waging pointless wars, to balance books we could have balanced peacefully, simply by acknowledging economic reality.
  • jpom
    Martin Brock, sir, you are my favorite commenter on this blog. You are an independent thinker. I appreciate every post of yours and I read this blog everyday. Keep up the good work!
  • That you are proposing, Mr. or Mrs. noredbull, is part of the history of mankind. We've gone through this thorny path. You must realize that the world, who lives in his mind, is obsolete. Obviously I can not ask you to understand the value of spontaneous cooperation as a source of global prosperity ...
    Atte, Juan Carlos Vera.
  • TTE
    How many Americans and Chinese should suffer in the meantime?

    Furthermore, what reason is there to believe that the Chinese will bow to tariffs? Ironically, the wikipedia page you link to quotes Christina Romer as saying that there is, "no support for the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending; indeed, [the findings] suggest that tax cuts may actually increase spending." Starving the beast doesn't seem to work very well.
  • Tired of the Bull
    How many millions will die when Iran gets the bomb and uses it? Imagine Hitler with the bomb. Now go back to sleep.
  • martinbrock
    Iran isn't about to get the bomb and isn't about to use it, but you may whip up hysteria with any bogeyman you want to concoct of course.
  • Tired of the Bull
    You don't know what you are taking about on this matter. Please refrain from making inane comments to me without any evidence. You can follow the Iranian nuclear bomb and missile program at www.debka.com. You can also follow their terrorist activities on the same site. Was the Cuban Missile Crisis also whipped up hysteria?
  • martinbrock
    The IAEA has certified Iran's non-diversion of nuclear material for military purposes. The last National Intelligence Estimate to examine the question found no evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. If you have evidence of anything other than suspicions of possible covert programs, you may present it here. I can't prove the negative. I also can't prove that a pink elephant in the corner of your room hasn't shown you definitive evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program.

    During the Cuban Missile Crisis, people whipping up the hysteria provided aerial photos of ballistic missiles on the ground in Cuba and other very persuasive evidence that the U.S.S.R. was deploying nuclear weapons there, unlike the cockamamie evidence of "weapons of mass destruction" concocted to rationalize the U.S. invasion of Iraq, evidence since soundly debunked and repudiated by Colin Powell himself, not to mention G. W. Bush.

    Your Iranian bomb hysteria is based on the same sort of thinly sourced, highly speculative, assume-what-you-want-to-prove, non-evidence evidence. You link some news site, without a single specific reference to any specific evidence, and that's supposed to make your case. I can't even read the archived articles without paying for access, and I'm supposed to dig through the site to find all of the evidence you haven't bothered to discuss here. You can't be serious.

    Here's one for you.
  • Tired of the Bull
    I think you are a pacifist fool, frankly. If Israel didn't bomb the Osirak nuclear plant built with French help, there would have been no Gulf Wars because Sadaam would still be in Kuwait with a nuclear shield. I'm glad you can sleep at night, Neville Chamberlain Brock. Much of the content is free on Debka, so your rationalization doesn't wash.
  • martinbrock
    I couldn't care less how you label me, and your history is laughable. Everyone debunking some bogus assertion of "weapons of mass destruction" is Neville Chamberlain. This way, you relieve yourself of all responsibility for substantiating your war mongering.

    The story was exactly the same in the run up to the Iraqi occupation, but the WMD story proved a lot of bullshit, as Bush II himself later admitted. This deceptive propaganda campaign actually rationalized the war, as a matter of historical fact, not any Iraqi nuclear shield.

    You don't even deny it. You just toss out "Neville Chamberland" as though this linguistic nostrum cures every ill of your willfully blind, political rhetoric. It works when you're preaching to your know-nothing choir, but the words are wasted on me.

    You demand "evidence" that your pink elephant is not in the corner. I cite the NIE, and you ignore it. When I ask for affirmative evidence of the elephant, you call me "Neville Chamberlain", like this facile non sequitur means anything outside of your simple ideology. The record is very clear.
  • No_Red_Bull
    Neville Brock,

    Nuclear weapons are not bean bags. You will learn the hard way after a city (or more) is destroyed instantly. I would say that you will eat crow, but it won't make me happy. Maybe, you'll be in the city when it goes kaplooey, and you'll just be dead.
  • martinbrock
    Another one-sizes-fits-all, applies-to-any-war-you-want-to-start non-argument.

    Last Thursday, at the Cato Institute, two GOP congressmen said, "the vast majority of GOP members of Congress now think it was wrong for the U.S. to invade Iraq in 2003."

    But don't worry. Now that Republicrats have learned their lesson, the Demoblicans will start your next war for you.
  • Tired of the Bull
    Uncle Sam’s gargantuan debt is do in part to Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy that was intended to "starve the beast." That is why I linked to Wikipedia. You pick and choice what you want to read. So sad. You use your delete function selectively to disregard anything that produces cognitive dissonance in you brain. Perhaps you're not ready for hardball either. You'll let the vultures pick your eye sockets clean. Boudreaux always conflates what the federal government does with the nefarious activities of Bush and the Republicans.
  • thedirtymac
    "do in part to Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy that was intended to "starve the beast."

    Bush's tax cuts was do to a lot of things and they was intended to due a lot of things. I may be picking and choicing, but Bush not president anymore.

    Our own Muirgeo can at least right a sentence.
  • No_Red_Bull
    Health care insurance reform is about to pass, so even you can get treatment for your mental illness.
  • Barbarossa
    Our government debt was around and growing long before Bush, and though he certainly added a large chunk to it, so has Obama! And government debt is due in large part to government SPENDING. You really think there's a difference between the two parties; I wish I could be so blissfully ignorant and naive. And of course Don "disregards anything that produces cognitive dissonance"! That's what smart people do! They avoid Doublethink! Here's a petri dish; go harvest some brain cells yourself.
  • brotio
    Your caricature-ish ravings strike me as satire, so I don't often respond. But, that single-digit-IQ-Statist, Yasafi Muirduck often spouts the same mantra about tax cuts for the rich, and since I know he's lurking, I'll again point out that tax rates were cut, and as Michael Smith pointed out, the rich paid more in taxes after the cuts than before.
  • MichaelSmith
    Bull wrote:

    Uncle Sam’s gargantuan debt is do in part to Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy that was intended to "starve the beast."

    Individual income tax collections during Bush's last year in office were 14.1% higher than the year before he took office. What's more, the percentage of all taxes collected from the rich (highest 1% of income earners) was higher at the end of Bush's two terms than at the beginning.

    Data is here:
    http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy11/sheets/h...

    And here:
    http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/show/24944.html

    I offer this not as a defense of Bush -- whom I thoroughly condemn for being a big-government statist while posturing as an alleged champion of capitalism -- rather, I offer it to illustrate to you that the leftist talking points you've swallowed are divorced from reality.

    The notion that Bush and the Republicans are out to "starve government" to force it to make budget cuts is laughable. Bush's whole point in cutting taxes was generate more economic activity in the hope of expanding tax collections -- all so that Republicans could better compete with the Democrats in a vote-buying expansion of the welfare state.

    And if you go to the article from which Wikipedia got that quote from Bush in 2001 about using tax cuts as a “fiscal straightjacket for Congress”, you will find that the very next statement out of Bush’s mouth in that article was this:

    Listen, the '02 budget we submitted has got discretionary spending growing by 6 percent. That's a pretty significant number. Certainly not as much as some of the appropriators would like to see in Washington, D.C., but we think it's a nice, balanced number. It's one that will help meet the needs and, at the same time, not overspend and therefore affect economic growth.

    So there was never any intent by Bush to cut the size of government -- none at all. And the attempt to paint him as a government-cutting “conservative” is just plain false.

    But I will say this: When it comes to growing government, Bush was a pathetic piker compared to our current looter-in-chief and his fellow power-lusters in Congress.
  • Tired of the Bull
    You live in a fantasy world of your own making. The answers to questions are easier to find in the age of the internet, making sophists like you look like wing nuts. There really is no place to hide for the extremist elements anymore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of...
  • MichaelSmith
    Like most modern leftists, you are heavy on the insults and smears -- “you live in a fantasy world”, “sophists”, “wing nut”, “extremist” -- because you labor under the illusion (or is it a hope?) that name-calling makes facts disappear. It does not.

    Your second Wikipedia reference is every bit as misleading and dishonest as your first. It blames the debt under Bush on -- quoting from the article -- “a combination of tax cuts (and) expenditures for fighting two wars“ and accuses Bush of promoting “a free-market ideology”. None of these claims withstands a simple examination of the facts.

    Here, from the Federal government’s own budget web site, are the facts concerning tax collections and expenditures over the 8 years under Bush versus the previous 8 under Clinton.

    1) Despite the tax rate cuts under Bush, total collection of individual and corporate income taxes along with excise taxes increased by $2.644 trillion.

    2) Total national defense spending (which includes Homeland Security) under Bush increased by $1.48 trillion.

    Thus, increased tax collections exceeded the cost of the wars by nearly $1.2 trillion..

    Conclusion: Given these numbers, it is preposterous to blame the debt solely on tax rate cuts and wars -- if those two factors were the only things involved, we’d have had budget surpluses, not deficits.

    Could tax collections have been greater if the rates were not cut? Maybe. There are arguments both ways. But it doesn’t alter the fact that more than enough additional taxes were collected to cover the costs of the two wars.

    Here, then, is the fact that the Wikipedia article seeks to hide:

    3) Total non-national defense spending under Bush increased by $4.99 trillion.

    This is a 48% increase in non-defense spending -- a massive expansion of the regulatory/welfare state. At the end of Bush’s terms in office, the increase in annual non-defense spending was approaching $1 trillion per year.

    The increase in non-defense spending is 3.4 times as great as the increase in national defense expenditures. To ignore this increase in non-defense spending -- and instead focus on the much smaller increase in national defense spending -- is to ignore 80% of all Federal spending -- doing this in any analysis of the budget deficits is blatantly dishonest and misleading.

    And it is very clear why Wikipedia -- and today’s leftists -- wish to evade fact 3: it completely and utterly refutes the notion that Bush practiced some sort of “free-market ideology”. It exposes the truth -- namely, that Bush was a big government, big spender intent on expanding the welfare state. And that’s a truth that is fatal to the left’s attempt to blame all our economic problems on (non-existent) capitalism.

    All numbers above come from Tables 2.1 and 2.3 available here:
    http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/hist.html
  • vikingvista
    Nicely done, MichaelSmith.
  • MichaelSmith
    Thank you, sir.
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