It’s astonishing how oblivious protectionists are to the most basic facts (and, of course, also to economic logic).
Editor, American Thinker
Editor:
Attempting to justify Trump’s tariffs, John Di Leo writes that “our 40-year-long trend of exporting much of our manufacturing and becoming terribly dependent on one specific enemy nation, Red China, has been terribly destructive to the American way of life, especially to our working class, which has gradually lost the manufacturing base needed to employ them and give them advancement opportunity” (“Protectionism in Age of Free Trade,” Dec. 16).
He offers no evidence to back this claim – unsurprisingly, because all credible evidence rejects it: inflation-adjusted American manufacturing output today is double what it was in 1984. It’s true that it hit its peak 17 years ago, at the start of the Great Recession (in December 2007), and has since fallen slightly; today manufacturing output is nine percent lower than it was 17 years ago. But not only was the 2007 peak 23 years after Mr. Di Leo alleges America began “exporting much of our manufacturing,” the trend of manufacturing employment as a share of total nonfarm employment belies his assumption that rising manufacturing output is accompanied by rising manufacturing employment.
From January 1946 through December 2007, real manufacturing output in America skyrocketed by nearly 1,000%, but manufacturing jobs as a percentage of the total nonfarm workforce fell from 32.4 to 9.9. During those years, the average monthly decline of manufacturing employment as a share of total nonfarm employment was 0.16%. However, since December 2007 – when manufacturing output began to stagnate – the average monthly decline of manufacturing employment as a share of total nonfarm employment slowed 0.10%.*
If Mr. Di Leo’s assumption were correct, the average monthly decline of manufacturing jobs as a share of total employment would have accelerated since 2007, when manufacturing output began to stagnate. Instead, it slowed.
Also misleading is the assertion that America is “terribly dependent on one specific enemy nation, Red China.” China is only America’s third largest trading partner, well behind Mexico and Canada. Year-to-date in 2024, America has had 47% more trade with Mexico, and 32% more with Canada, than with China. Together, Mexico and Canada now account for 179% more U.S. trade than does China.
It’s easy to make a sound case for protective tariffs by ignoring economic realities, but it’s nearly impossible to do so otherwise.
Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030* Calculated from FRED Economic Data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, “All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)” divided by “All Employees, Nonfarm (PAYEMS).”
