Here’s a letter to National Review.
Editor:
Dan McLaughlin is correct that the U.S. economy is generally performing worse so far during Trump’s second term than performed during the comparable period of his first term (“Trump Lost the Voters’ Trust on the Economy Before the War,” November 6).
Consider these comparisons of economic performance from January 2025 through September 2026 with the performance during the corresponding period of Trump’s first term, January 2017 through September 2018.
Inflation, measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, was 5.45% under Trump 2.0, compared with 2.98% under Trump 1.0.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.2% under Trump 2.0, while falling from 4.7% to 3.7% under Trump 1.0.
Total nonfarm employment grew by only 0.54% under Trump 2.0, compared with 2.56% under Trump 1.0.
Manufacturing employment fell by 0.09% under Trump 2.0, compared with 3.05% rise under Trump 1.0.
Real average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers rose by only 0.50% under Trump 2.0, compared with 1.73% under Trump 1.0.
Real median weekly earnings fell by 0.80% under Trump 2.0, compared with an increase of 0.57% under Trump 1.0.
Industrial production rose by 3.88% under Trump 2.0, compared with 5.41% under Trump 1.0.
Real gross private domestic investment increased by 4.71% under Trump 2.0, compared with 10.04% under Trump 1.0.
The real stock of foreign direct investment in the U.S. increased by only 1.72% under Trump 2.0, compared with 7.28% under Trump 1.0.
Real exports of goods and services rose by 2.08% under Trump 2.0, compared with 2.85% under Trump 1.0.
Real GDP increased by 4.06% under Trump 2.0, compared with 4.53% under Trump 1.0.
Federal debt held by the public, measured as a percentage of GDP, rose under Trump 2.0 (through the second quarter of 2026) from 96.4% to 97.4%, compared with a slight decline over the corresponding period of Trump 1.0, from 75.6% to 75.2%.
Of course, the economy under Trump 2.0 didn’t perform worse in every respect. Industrial capacity, for example, rose by 2.16% under Trump 2.0 but fell by 0.79% under Trump 1.0. And real per-capita GDP grew at nearly identical rates under the two administrations: 3.57% under Trump 2.0 and 3.58% under Trump 1.0.
Nevertheless, by many relevant measures, the American economy performed worse – and often much worse – over the first half of Trump 2.0 than it performed over the first half of Trump 1.0. It’s little wonder that voters today are less impressed with Trump’s economic stewardship than they were at the corresponding point in his first term.
Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030Notes: (1) Comparisons use mostly monthly data, but the foreign-direct-investment figures, and federal debt figures, are based on quarterly observations. (2) Inflation figures measure cumulative increases in the price level, not annualized inflation rates. (3) Nominal figures above are adjusted for inflation using the personal-consumption-expenditure index. (4) Data for Q3 2026 federal debt as a percentage of GDP will not be released until later this month.
