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The Reality of Industrial Policy

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal:

Editor:

We Americans are constantly warned that Beijing is cleverly orchestrating the Chinese economy’s eclipse of America’s – and, thus, Washington must respond in kind. But the recent report by Yoko Kubota and Clarence Leong should calm our fears. Your reporters note that the government in China is “encouraging unprofitable carmakers to keep producing as officials try to boost economic growth, preserve jobs and expand China’s role in the global electric-vehicle business” (“Why China Keeps Making More Cars Than It Needs,” April 29).

In other words, in a quest to gain a larger share of global sales in one particular industry, and to keep workers employed in jobs that are not worth their cost, Beijing is urging the continued operation of companies that destroy more economic value than they create. It’s a genuine mystery why the likes of Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Robert Lighthizer, Elizabeth Warren, Josh Hawley, and Oren Cass think that genuine economic growth is achieved by governments commanding their citizens to waste resources.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

Art Carden correctly identifies tariffs as sanctions that governments impose on their own citizens. A slice:

Tariffs on foreign goods are “sanctions” on American consumers. Their crime? Not wanting to pay as much as domestic producers want.

Paul Sracic explains that “protectionism won’t save U.S. Steel’s jobs.” A slice:

It might be useful for the United Steel Workers to recall that the mills that closed in Youngstown were all union shops. History teaches that while unions can improve wages and working conditions for those working in the mills, they can’t make the mills economically sustainable. Cleveland-Cliffs announced it would close its unionized tinplate mill in Weirton, W.Va., this month. While the company blamed foreign competitors, the bipartisan International Trade Commission unanimously rejected the claim that imports were damaging Cleveland-Cliffs.

Even if the U.S. adopts tariffs and other countermeasures to raise the price of foreign steel, the older plants that formed the core of the old U.S. Steel will face increased competition from greener domestic rivals. A lack of investment and innovation destroyed steel jobs in the 1970s and ’80s. Politicians and others who oppose Nippon Steel’s purchase of U.S. Steel risk taking us down this road once again. Ironically, they are doing so in the name of the very working-class voters who will feel the brunt of the economic pain should these mills close.

Say, Arnold Kling writes insightfully about the market for bureaucrats.

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal warns of “a global wealth tax.” Two slices:

In our new socialist age, the demand to tax and redistribute income is insatiable. The latest brainstorm arrives in a proposal by four countries in the G-20 group of nations to impose a 2% wealth tax on the world’s billionaires. Don’t think this couldn’t happen.

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As you might expect, this would principally be a tax raid on Americans, who are the most numerous billionaires. It would also be taxation without representation, since it would be a body of global elites attempting to impose a tax without having passed Congress.

Hans Bader’s letter in today’s Wall Street Journal is excellent:

The editorial board is right to criticize a California legislative committee’s passage of reparations proposals that could cost taxpayers a huge amount of money (“Slavery Reparations in California?” April 24). Paying race-based reparations to blacks is unconstitutional. Under Supreme Court precedent, racial handouts are allowed only as a remedy for recent systemic discrimination by the unit of government providing the handout.

California wasn’t a slave state, and it hasn’t engaged in recent systemic discrimination against blacks, so reparations aren’t warranted under court rulings such as Coral Construction Co. v. King County (1991). Discrimination that occurred decades ago isn’t a reason for racial preferences under court rulings like Hammon v. Barry (1987), which rejected affirmative action as a remedy for discrimination that occurred 18 years earlier.

Moreover, the racial wealth gap isn’t due to segregation or government discrimination. Racial wealth gaps exist even in countries like Malaysia and Uganda, where the ethnic group with less wealth is politically dominant and received racial preferences from the government. So the racial wealth gap isn’t a reason for reparations.

Hans Bader
Arlington, Va.

GMU Econ alumn Dominic Pino puts an important question to today’s campus occupiers.

Vance Ginn is correct about Vermont’s perpetually angry socialist senator: “Sanders’s 4-Day Week Will Kill Flexible Jobs.”

Market competition!

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 414 of the 2016 second edition of Thomas Sowell’s important volume Wealth, Poverty and Politics (footnote deleted; link added):

This disdain [in Spain] toward those who were economically productive extended to such displays of bigotry as the mass expulsion of Jews in the fifteenth century and of Moriscos in the seventeenth century – mass exports of human capital in both cases. Such attitudes were not unique to Spain. It was said of serfdom in Russia that it simply put “much wealth in the hands of a spendthrift nobility.” In America, the plantation owners in the antebellum South were likewise noted for a spendthrift lifestyle and the region for lagging in the skills, work ethic and entrepreneurship more common in the rest of America. Those who seek to depict slavery as the basis for American prosperity fail to explain why the region where slavery was concentrated and flourished was the poorest and least progressive region of the country, as was also true in Brazil, the second largest slave-owning nation in the Western Hemisphere.

DBx: And also, Brazil clung to slavery longer than did the United States.

The proposition that today’s wealth in capitalist societies is the fruit of slavery is among those propositions that are most irreconcilable with history and most unsalvageable in theory.

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Bonus Quotation of the Day…

is from page 103 of the 5th edition (2020) of Douglas Irwin’s excellent book Free Trade Under Fire:

There is no such thing as a free lunch. Every government intervention involves a tradeoff of some sort. Higher sugar prices increase employment in sugar production but reduce employment in food-manufacturing industries. Higher semiconductor prices increase employment in the semiconductor industry but decrease employment in the computer industry. Higher steel prices increase employment in the steel industry but decrease employment in steel-using industries. When an industry asks the government to impose trade barriers that would raise the domestic price above the world price, the choice means trading off jobs in one sector of the economy for jobs in another sector, not creating or losing jobs overall.

DBx: Yep. And, of course, what’s true for jobs is true also for output. Protectionism can indeed cause the domestic outputs of industries X and Y to rise, but only by also causing the outputs of industries A and B to fall. Further, this tradeoff is negative-sum because protectionism keeps workers and resources in inefficient domestic industries X and Y, thus slowing – or preventing altogether – the domestic thriving of efficient industries A and B.

This undeniable truth is nearly universally ignored by protectionists – many of whom have the chutzpah to fancy themselves more realistic and practical than free traders.

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The Case for Free Trade Remains Strong

Here’s a letter to a new reader of my blog:

Ms. E__

Thanks for sharing Jeff Ferry’s new piece on some prominent economists – specifically, Angus Deaton, Mario Draghi, Paul Romer, and Janet Yellen – rejecting free trade.

I put no stock whatsoever in pronouncements by Draghi and Yellen, for each is now principally a politician. And like too many politicians, they’ll insist that the earth is flat if taking such a stance furthers their political goals.

Deaton and Romer are more credible. Nevertheless, for at least two reasons I believe them to be mistaken. First, both men ignore the realities of government. Even if in principle more restrictions on trade are desirable – and even if, contrary to fact, government officials had access to the detailed knowledge necessary to impose these restrictions ‘optimally’ – all trade restrictions are imposed by officials who are inevitably pressured by interest groups. Deaton and Romer simply assume that the costs of these political distortions will be outweighed by the benefits of trade restrictions. I see no warrant for this assumption.

Second, Deaton and Romer, seeing and pitying people who lose jobs because of economic change, err in assuming that this change is uniquely and overwhelmingly caused by international trade. Yet while increased trade does destroy some particular jobs, the vast majority of job destruction in a country as large and as dynamic as the U.S. is caused by factors having little or nothing to do with trade – factors such as changes in consumer tastes, the introduction of new products, and improvements in technology. What Deaton and Romer really decry is economic change. Therefore, to be consistent they would have to endorse not only government efforts to restrict Americans’ freedom to trade with foreigners, but Americans’ freedom to trade with each other and to innovate.

Unless and until the likes of Deaton and Romer (and, for that matter, Draghi and Yellen) explicitly endorse government efforts to restrict domestic trade and innovation in addition to foreign trade, I’ll continue to believe that their stated objections to free trade are poorly thought out.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

Timothy Taylor is understandably unimpressed with the record of that piece of American industrial policy called “the Jones Act.” Two slices:

The United States has had an industrial policy aimed at boosting its domestic shipbuilding industry since the passage of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, commonly known as the Jones Act. Whatever the arguments for the passage of the bill a century ago, it has over time been a disaster for the US maritime industry, and continues to impose significant costs on other parts of the US economy. Colin Grabow goes through the arguments in “Protectionism on Steroids: The Scandal of the Jones Act” (Milken Institute Review, Second Quarter 2024, pp. 44-53).

The Jones Act “requires that vessels engaged in domestic transportation be registered and built in the United States as well as crewed and at least 75 percent owned by U.S. citizens.” However, the underlying rule goes back to an 1817 law “prohibiting foreign vessels from transporting goods within the U.S.”

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Supporters of industrial policy have a tendency to brush aside examples like the Jones Act: “Sure, that’s a foolish way to implement industrial policy, but my plan is a smart way to do so.” “Yes, the Jones Act is a problem, but the way to fix it is with much bigger government subsidies to expand US shipbuilding.” But the Jones Act is a classic example of a special interest law that benefits a small and very vocal group, while imposing large but diffuse costs. The problems of the Jones Act have been well-known for decades, and nothing has changed. Every proposal for industrial policy faces similar political economy dynamics.

Thus, it seems to me that the challenge for supporters of industry policy is not just to pick some alluring industries and then to hand out government favors like Halloween candy, but to specify in advance how they intend to measure success or failure of these subsidies–perhaps with a series of goals that must be met over time or else the subsidies get turned off. In South Korea, for example, which is often cited as an example of successful industry policy, the government subsidies for certain industries were often made contingent on the industries expanding their export sales at prevailing prices in international markets. When industrial policy goes poorly, as in the Jones Act, the costs are broadly felt across an array of related industries.

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal is understandably unimpressed with the FTC’s new effort to block the merger of two high-fashion firms. A slice:

No bureaucratic worries. The FTC pulls the old antitrust trick of redefining the luxury market to discover competitive harm. The agency claims the merger will harm competition in the “accessible luxury” and “affordable” handbag market. The agency describes handbags that retail for several hundred dollars as “affordable,” which they may be for antitrust attorneys in Washington. Most middle-class Americans would consider them a genuine luxury.

The FTC excludes from its market definition brands that don’t sell handbags through multiple channels such as online websites and outlets. “Chanel and Hermes even go so far as to never sell certain handbags online—a customer must go into a store to purchase a Chanel or certain Hermes bag,” the FTC explains. But they’re still competitive luxury brands.

Wall Street Journal columnist Andy Kessler is understandably unimpressed with the moral fortitude of our political ‘leaders.’ A slice:

Media progressives provide rationalizations. In March, former Wikimedia Foundation head Katherine Maher began as CEO of National Public Radio. Bad choice. Her principles seem to include redefining the truth to fit any principles.

In a 2022 TED talk, she said: “For our most tricky disagreements, seeking the truth and seeking to convince others of the truth might not be the right place to start. In fact, our reverence for the truth might be a distraction that’s getting in the way of finding common ground and getting things done.”

From the same speech: “Part of the reason we have such glorious chronicles to the human experience in all forms of culture is that we acknowledge there are many different truths.” My truth: I don’t listen to NPR.

Changing principles and truth-bending will never die. Which reminds me of Groucho’s supposed last words, “Die my dear? Why that’s the last thing I’ll do.”

Pierre Lemieux is understandably unimpressed with The Economist‘s knee-jerk opposition to the right to own firearms.

Wall Street Journal columnist Allysia Finley is understandably unimpressed with Ivy League anti-Israel-protesting students “behaving like barbarians.” A slice:

Elite colleges are supposed to separate the wheat from the chaff in their application process. They are, however, increasingly selecting students for traits that many employers don’t want, such as a passion for progressive activism.

This claim by Arnold Kling seems to me to be correct: “I claim that the stereotypical personality of the Hippie was high in openness. The stereotypical personality of today’s social justice activist is high in neuroticism.” Two slices:

Most of the 1960s anti-war protesters were not pro-Vietcong. They were upset with the sacrifices Americans were making and the casualties on both sides in a war that seemingly had no end. They wanted American policy to aim toward peace, even if this meant conceding that the war would not be won.

Much of mainstream America came to agree that the war was a terrible mess. They were tired of being lied to by President Johnson. They were tired of watching what was happening to their young men in a far-off jungle land. They were tired of South Vietnamese generals whose prowess was at staging coups rather than fighting the enemy. They were tired of the nightly television news that made the war seem grotesque and hopeless. Even Richard Nixon, the candidate of the more hawkish Republican Party, campaigned on a slogan of “Peace with Honor.”

In 2024, my sense is that the protesters are limited to the fringe that supports the bad guys. There is no broader peace movement, as far as I can tell. I could be wrong, but I suspect that the anti-Israel movement on campus is not as popular with the student body as the anti-war movement in 1968. For most people, sympathy for Hamas is too much of a stretch.

I also suspect that the anti-Israel movement is not going to gain a large following in the general public, the way that the anti-war movement gained a following in the Vietnam era. American lives are not being lost in the Middle East. Many Americans admire Israel and view it as a stalwart ally, which was not their perception of South Vietnam.

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The social justice activists strike me as closer to being a cult than a movement. I think that the cult attracts people who are unhealthy psychologically. They have a lot of negative emotions, and the social justice ideology serves to validate and reinforce those emotions.

Jim Bacchus wonders: “Is President Joe Biden more interested in fighting climate change or in sheltering domestic industries from foreign competition?” [DBx: Perhaps I’m too cynical, but I have no such wonder. I’m as certain that Mr. Biden will put his own political welfare above any asserted interest in ‘fighting climate change’ as I am that cows will moo, dogs will bark, and cats will meow.]

Wall Street Journal columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady argues that “without a credible dollarization strategy, Argentina’s president is at risk of failure.” A slice:

It’s been four months since Mr. Milei took the oath of office, promising to free the nation from the strictures of Peronism. With a passion for liberty and irreverence for the establishment, he’s generated excitement among long-suffering Argentines tired of a century of government modeled on Mussolini’s Italy. He rails against socialism and endorses Western civilization. He backs Israel, a welcome foreign policy in a region that increasingly bows to Tehran.

Yet Mr. Milei’s talk of freedom is at odds with exchange, capital, and lingering price controls. Monthly inflation for March was below market expectations but still high at 11%. “On an annual basis, headline inflation accelerated to 287.9% [year over year],” Goldman Sachs reported April 12. “Core inflation printed at a lower but still high 9.4% [month over month] in March, reaching 300.0% [year over year].”

Nick Gillespie talks with Justin Amash about Congressional dysfunction.

Bob Ewing remembers the late, great Daniel Dennett.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 241 of Deirdre McCloskey’s 2024 paper “Market Prices and Wages Do Not Reflect Ethical Value,” which is chapter 19 in The War on Prices: How Popular Misconceptions About Inflation, Prices, and Value Create Bad Policy (Ryan A. Bourne, ed., 2024):

Trades, in economic jargon, are positive sum. Violent coercion, by contrast – such as private hired thugs or public tax gatherers extracting goods from one person to give to another – yields one person a gain and the other person a loss. It’s zero or even negative sum.

DBx: There might be justification for a number of government activities. But the reality identified here by Deirdre should create a strong, if rebuttable, presumption against any such activity. Proposed government actions should have to satisfy a weighty burden of persuasion before being approved. The mere social-engineering fancies of pundits, professors, preachers, and politicians satisfy no such burden even if the verbal or written descriptions of their imagined utopias are sublime.

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Beware of the Word “Afford”

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal:

Editor:

Reporting on California’s recent hike in the minimum wage for workers at fast-food restaurants, you note that “a spokesman for the governor said fast-food companies can afford to give their workers a deserved bump in pay” (“California Fast-Food Chains Are Now Serving Sticker Shock,” April 27).

Bad arguments for minimum wages abound, but this one is among the silliest. Elon Musk can “afford” to pay $100 million annually to his dog groomer, but this fact doesn’t mean that he’ll do so simply because the government decrees that the minimum annual salary for dog groomers is $100 million. A business employs only those workers who make positive contributions to its bottom line. Workers who must be paid more than they contribute will find themselves unemployed regardless of the business’s net worth.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

George Will understands why so very many institutions of so-called “higher learning” have become self-spoofing embarrassments. A slice:

Given academia’s nearly monochrome culture, most universities have many infantile adults. These are faculty members who have glided from kindergarten through postdoctoral fellowships (these often support surplus PhDs, who are being manufactured faster than the academic job market can absorb them). To such professors, the 99.9 percent of the world adjacent to campuses is as foreign as Mongolia.

Still, suppose you want to hire a recent college graduate for your business. Suppose one of your applicants attended Harvard while it was becoming an incubator of antisemitic agitations. And suppose the other applicant attended a large public university. The public-university graduate is at least marginally less apt to be enthusiastic about Hamas, which aspires to complete the Holocaust.

Or suppose you seek a young doctor to join your medical practice. You might reasonably hesitate before hiring someone from UCLA’s medical school. There a recent pro-Hamas guest lecturer in a mandatory course on “Structural Racism and Health Equity” led students in a “Free Palestine” chant, directed them to get on their knees and touch the floor in a “prayer” to “mama earth,” and warned the future doctors against the “crapitalist lie” of “private property.”

The leakage of prestige from politicized universities is overdue and wholesome. Those schools that once were preeminent and now are punchlines might soon have a bruising rendezvous with real politics, which, unlike the sandbox radicalism of campus playgrounds, can be serious.

Jeffrey Blehar reveals just how ignorant, unhinged, and – frankly – evil are some of the ‘elite’ school ‘students’ who are today prominent among the campus protestors against Israel.

Let’s wish Stanley Goldfarb much good luck in undermining the State of Michigan’s obnoxious and lethal efforts to inflict woke ideology on medical personnel.

Iain Murray describes the U.S. administrative state as hitting “warp speed.”

GMU Law alum Jeremy Kidd reports on “the wasteful cruelty of ‘stakeholder capitalism.'” Two slices:

Capitalism has raised millions, if not billions, of people out of poverty. It is the greatest engine of human flourishing that has ever existed. It is worth defending, but those willing to do so are few and far between, even in the societies that have most benefitted from the wealth that capitalism has generated. In the late twentieth century, economist Milton Friedman stood against the tide of anti-capitalist propaganda that flourished in the halls of academia.

Friedman is gone but anti-capitalism remains, and it is no longer constrained to academia. It is common in the halls of Congress (Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren come readily to mind) and even in corporate boardrooms, with the modern push for corporations to engage in ESG — Environmental, Social, and Governance — efforts. Champions of capitalism have never been more needed, and Professor R. David McLean’s 2023 book, The Case for Shareholder Capitalism: How the Pursuit of Profit Benefits All makes a strong case for inclusion in that category.

McLean begins, as a defender of capitalism should, with an explanation of profit. Not the profit that anti-capitalists caricature, some dark motive of dastardly villains, twirling their mustaches or adjusting their monocles as they plan to exploit yet another widow or orphan. McLean counters the false melodrama of the anti-capitalist with the mundane “profit” of Adam Smith. It is the (sometimes surprising) pile of money left after the small business owner has paid all of the bills for the month. It is the signal that the value a business owner creates in the lives of his fellow citizens is high enough to pay for all the inputs and have something left over.

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The mistake is not that corporations should obey the law — they should — but that all regulations impose legal or moral obligations on US citizens, including as aggregated into a corporate form. McLean’s mistake arises from an all-too-common source: failure to consider institutional structure. The US government’s power is constrained by the Constitution, so any regulation that violates the Constitution would be unenforceable. Regulatory agencies have limited discretion, and cannot impose a moral or legal obligation on corporations. McLean knows that, and may have even intended to imply it, but institutions matter, and their inadvertent omission could easily confuse. McLean effectively attacks the flaws of Corporate Social Responsibility and its ESG incarnation, calling out activists for pursuing ideological preferences at the expense of shareholders. He traces the flawed, Malthusian lineage of Corporate Social Responsibility to such historical abominations as forced abortions and sterilizations. For all these excellent and needed efforts, McLean misses the institutional questions often enough to fall just short of a complete analysis.

Is nationalism bad for your health?

J.D. Tuccille warns that “local hostility to free speech may become a global problem.”

Bruce Yandle ponders today’s inflation.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 20 of the original edition of Walter Lippmann’s sometimes deeply flawed but profoundly insightful and important 1937 book, The Good Society:

No government planned, no political authority directed, the material progress of the past four centuries, or the increasing humanity which has accompanied it. It was by a stupendous liberation of the minds and spirits and conduct of men that a world-wide exchange of goods and services and ideas was promoted, and it was in this invigorating and sustaining environment that petty principalities coalesced into great commonwealths.

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