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Here’s a follow-up note to Nolan McKinney.

Mr. McKinney:

In reply to this note, you write that, in your earlier email, you “neglected mentioning the big factor depressing job growth, which is immigrant deportations.”

Fair enough.

In December it was estimated that, since January 2025, the number of foreign-born workers in the U.S. was down by 1.1 million, or a drop of 110,000 workers per month from February through November. This figure means that through December 2025, the loss of jobs held by foreign-born workers was roughly 1,210,000. Adding DOGE job losses to this figure (as before, assuming that no fired federal worker found new employment in 2025), we come up with a total deportation and DOGE job-loss figure for 2025 of 1,530,000, or 127,500 monthly.

Let’s add this figure to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s estimate of the actual average net monthly job gain in 2025 of 48,667. The hypothetical monthly job-gain figure we arrive at is 176,167 – a figure that is indeed in the same ballpark as the non-recession and non-covid-recovery average monthly net job-creation figure for 2000 through 2024 of 169,250.

But Pres. Trump boasts that his policies are good for American workers, implying that the only job gains that matter are those enjoyed by Americans. If, as Trump insists, immigrants ‘steal’ jobs from Americans, surely Americans would have quickly taken the jobs lost by immigrants, with the result for 2025 being an average monthly net job-gain figure close to 176,000, rather than the actual figure of less than 50,000. The fact that there was nothing close to such job growth in 2025 is powerful evidence that immigrants are not stealing jobs from Americans.

Nevertheless, focusing only on what you apparently believe are ‘legitimate’ workers….

How does the reported 2025 monthly net job-gain figure of 48,667 compare to job gains in the past if we exclude jobs held by ‘illegitimate’ immigrants? To find out, we must remove all jobs gained by ‘illegitimate’ immigrants in the past, which for our dataset means going back through the year 2000.

Let’s do a back-of-the-envelope estimation that likely overestimates the number of jobs created for immigrants prior to 2025. The typical illegal immigrant remains in the U.S. for at least a decade, but let’s strengthen your case by assuming that the typical illegal immigrant leaves the U.S. (or his or her job) every three years. Let’s further assume that the same number of immigrants (1,210,000) who lost jobs in 2025 due to Trump’s deportations entered the workforce every three non-recession, non-covid-recovery years between 2000 and 2024.

Therefore, for the entire span of the 17 non-recession, non-covid-recovery years from 2000 through 2024, the total estimated number of jobs created for ‘illegitimate’ immigrants was 6,856,667. [1,210,000 x (17/3).] This figure means that the total number of jobs created for ‘legitimate’ workers in America over these same years was 27,670,333. (Total job creation over these years was 34,527,000. Subtracting from this figure the number of jobs – 6,856,667 – created for ‘illegitimate’ immigrants, gives us the figure of 27,670,333.)

On average, then, for all of the non-recession, non-covid-recovery years from 2000 through 2024, the estimated average monthly net job gain for ‘legitimate’ workers was 135,639 (which is arrived at by dividing 27,670,333 by the number of months, 204, in these non-recession, non-covid-recovery years).

So taking the reported 2025 average monthly job-gain figure of 48,667 and adding to it the 26,667 monthly DOGE job losses, the resulting hypothetical average monthly job-gain figure for 2025 of 75,334 is still much less than – only 55 percent of – the estimated average monthly net ‘legitimate-worker’ job-gain figure, over the non-recession, non-covid-recovery years 2000-2024, of 135,639.

I suspect that a more systematic estimate of the number of jobs created from 2000 through 2024 for ‘legitimate’ workers – that is, excluding jobs created for ‘illegitimate’ immigrants – would show that job-creation performance in 2025 was even worse by comparison.

In 2025, job creation in the U.S. was poor – a fact that can’t be avoided by pointing to DOGE and deportations.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Disappointing 2025 Job Numbers Can’t Be Blamed on DOGE

Here’s a note to “proud Trump man” Nolan McKinney.

Mr. McKinney:

You’re unhappy with my sharing on Facebook the Wall Street Journal report on job growth in 2025 – a report about which I commented:

2025 was the third-worst non-recession year of the 21st century for job growth. Put differently, 19 of the past 26 years (for the year 2000 is included in these calculations) saw more job growth than did 2025. In fact, even one recession (2007) year saw more job growth than did 2025. Make of this fact what you will – but you’ll tear several muscles trying to square this fact with the MAGA claim that Trump’s economic policies overall are good for ordinary American workers.

You counter by alleging that “this is all a result of President Trump’s D.O.G.E. job cuts, which are a great development.”

Your attempt to explain away the labor-market’s anemic performance in 2025 is factually inaccurate. DOGE reduced the U.S. government’s payroll by about 320,000 – or a monthly average of 26,667. To make your case as strong as possible, let’s assume (contrary to reality) that none of these fired federal workers found new employment in 2025.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures,* the average monthly net job gain in 2025 was 48,667. If we add to this number the 26,667 monthly DOGE job losses, we arrive, for 2025, at a monthly job-gain figure of 75,334. Yet even with this addition – that is, even if we assume that the ‘real’ average monthly net job gain in 2025 was 75,334 – it remains the case (as I wrote on Facebook) that “2025 was the third-worst non-recession year of the 21st century for job growth. Put differently, 19 of the past 26 years (for the year 2000 is included in these calculations) saw more job growth than did 2025.”

Here’s more perspective. From 2000 through 2024, excluding recession years and excluding also 2021 and 2022 (as the enormous job gains in these years might fairly be distorted by the recovery from covid lockdowns), the average monthly net job gain was 169,250. Even if DOGE hadn’t ended a single job, the resulting average monthly net job gain in 2025 of 75,334 is a paltry 45 percent of the average monthly net job gain dating back to 2000 (again, excluding recession years as well as 2021 and 2022; were we to include 2021 and 2022, the non-recession-year average monthly net job gain would be much higher, as during those two years an average of 491,000 jobs were added each month).

In short, the disappointing 2025 job-creation statistic is not an artifact of DOGE job cuts.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

* I attach here a screenshot of the monthly employment data.

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Some Links

GMU Econ alum Erik Matson ponders the (supposed) warmth of collectivism. A slice:

One doesn’t need to point to the obvious failures of the Soviet Union or the economic tragedies of modern-day Venezuela to establish the negative economic consequences of collectivism. They are apparent in the very problems Mamdani seeks to address. One of his first acts as mayor, he says, will be to intervene to protect tenants of a deteriorating Brooklyn building run by the now-bankrupt Pinnacle Group. The irony is that the units in the building are rent-controlled—hence their deterioration. Doubling down on rent controls and other measures of price-fixing will do nothing to make New York City prosper.

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal reveals the sloppy research method behind the study that allegedly shows that the U.S. Supreme Court is “pro-rich.” A slice:

It’s barely 2026, and there’s already a contender for the year’s worst Supreme Court story. Three economists claim in a new paper that the Justices are biased in favor of the rich. How did they make this discovery? By starting with progressive assumptions, while ignoring the Constitution and the law. Yet the study has received flattering publicity from journalists eager to believe.

If that synopsis sounds unfair, here’s how the academic authors put it: “Rather than examining a justice’s ideology or purported method of statutory and constitutional interpretation, our focus is on outcomes.” The study concludes that Justices on the High Court over seven decades have been increasingly polarized regarding the wealthy, “mostly due to Republican appointees whose decisions rise from about 50% pro-rich share to a 70% pro-rich share.”

Now look at their methodology. They hired “undergraduate and graduate research assistants” to read and categorize High Court opinions in divided cases since 1953. Their instructions gave several reasons to code a ruling as “pro-rich,” including if it “finds in favor of firms against the government,” sides with employers against workers, or “decreases tax payments by individuals or corporations.”

The baked-in assumption is that regulations are good and businesses are shirkers. Don’t fret about who’s legally right, whether the government is overreaching, or what the economic impact might be. As an example, the instructions said that a decision blocking a new gas pipeline—i.e., a company losing to an environmental agency—should be labeled as a win for the poor. But don’t high energy prices disproportionately hurt the working man?

Wall Street Journal columnist Allysia Finley warns of the frigid chill many New York City tenants are destined to suffer if Comrades Zohran Mamdani’s and Cae Weaver’s scheme to collectivize rental housing proceeds. A slice:

Ms. Weaver has advocated government seizure of properties that are in distress or foreclosure so that they can become socialized housing. A majority of New York’s left-wing City Council last year signed on to legislation that would empower the mayor to do so.

Never mind that the New York City Housing Authority says it requires “$78 billion in capital investment due to decades of insufficient funding and deferred maintenance.” Or that the city’s dilapidated public-housing units have 40% more maintenance deficiencies than older rent-stabilized units and 150% more than market-rate ones, according to a city analysis.

New Yorkers don’t need to fly to Caracas to see “decommodified” housing in practice. There’s a model right around the corner.

The Washington Post‘s Editorial Board applauds efforts to reduce the U.S. government’s fiscal incontinence. A slice:

After years of neglect, four members of Congress are trying to set a target to get back not even to a balanced budget, but just to a sane one. A resolution introduced Thursday by Reps. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pennsylvania), Scott Peters (D-California), Bill Huizenga (R-Michigan) and Mike Quigley (D-Illinois) would direct Congress to target a deficit of 3 percent of GDP by 2030

This effort is not chest-thumping by budget hawks demanding a balanced budget immediately. It is bipartisan recognition that the path the deficit is on undercuts the federal government’s ability to function.

Writing at National Review, John O. McGinnis explains “why democracy needs the rich.” Three slices:

But what exactly is wrong with the wealthy? Two-thirds of the Forbes 400, a list of the richest people in America, built their own businesses. These entrepreneurs still greatly benefit the other 99 percent, contributing far more to the welfare of consumers, employees, and other shareholders than they retain in personal wealth. Highly paid chief executive officers also increase the wealth of others. For instance, the morning of August 13, 2024, Starbucks stock jumped $19 billion because one man, Brian Niccol, accepted the CEO job.

Inherited wealth often faces heightened skepticism because its beneficiaries did not perform the hard work necessary to earn it. Nevertheless, these resources typically fuel investments and propel innovation, benefiting society as a whole. Most fortunes do not simply exist as idle reserves for a privileged few. Instead, they fund philanthropic ventures and fuel the ambitions and dreams of many.

…..

Nor are the rich even the group with the most outsized voice. The intelligentsia, broadly defined as including journalists, intellectuals, and entertainers, wields more significant power: The chattering class shapes the short-term agenda through the media and the long-term agenda through universities. It directs the cultural currents that flow into politics through books, television, movies, and music. And bureaucrats hold substantial sway over the day-to-day operation of government: like an unseen current in a river, their influence is constant, even as often relatively inexperienced political appointees with different views struggle to control the flow. These groups have homogeneous political viewpoints. Academics and civil servants overwhelmingly favor Democrats; their standing thus drives politics systematically to the left.

The rich fortify American democracy in part because they counter the leverage of such groups. The intelligentsia wields substantial power in democracy because, unlike all other citizens, shaping public opinion either directly or indirectly is part of their job. This gives them an enormous advantage in shaping democratic outputs over other groups whose work focuses on material, not ideological, production. The wealthy have both the independence and the resources to influence public debate and therefore assure that politics and policy aren’t solely driven by the intelligentsia and bureaucrats.

The rich also serve as a vital counterweight to special interest groups, such as unions and trade associations, which often have a stranglehold on specific public policies using their organized clout against the interests of the unorganized majority. The rich ameliorate this inherent democratic deficit by funding broader, diffuse interests that may resonate with the majority but are difficult for the majority to effectively advocate on their own. In this way, the influence of the rich amplifies the voice of the many against the concentrated power of the few. In serving as a counterweight to both the intelligentsia and special interests, the wealthy contribute to one of the virtues of democracy as a political system: its openness to contestation.

It is said that the wealthy are biased by their desire to retain their wealth, but every group has its own interests. Concentrated interest groups lobby to protect their own stakes, bureaucrats benefit from an expanded state, and academics thrive in a world where their status rises compared with those who create wealth. In fact, the wealthy can be focused on longer-term public interests because they have ample provision for themselves.

…..

Today’s attack on the rich is often not simply an attack on a particular class or the result of envy. The deeper aim is to change America’s system of government from a commercial and civic republic to a more collectivist society, where the state holds greater and more unchecked authority. The effect will be not only to disempower the rich but also to shift power to others — bureaucrats, special interest groups such as public sector unions and professional guilds, and journalists and academics. Like a magician’s misdirection, the focus on the rich distracts from the real objective: to concentrate power in the hands of those who claim to speak for the people, while sidelining a diverse and decentralized group that has kept American democracy vibrant and resilient.

Jeb Hensarling and Michael Solon make clear that “raising the FDIC limit risks repeating the S&L crisis.” A slice:

Government insurance programs are often tied to budget-busting bailouts and economic crises. But political pressures are again driving their expansion—and when these programs fail, taxpayers are left with the bill.

Washington’s latest bad idea is the Main Street Depositor Protection Act, offered by Sens. Bill Hagerty (R., Tenn.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D., Md.) and endorsed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The bill would increase the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. limit on all non-interest-bearing accounts from $250,000 to $10 million. But the change would apply only to midsize and community banks—not to global, systemically important banks. Smaller banks wouldn’t have to pay the estimated $42 billion for the increased insurance; the premium increases are largely shifted to bigger banks. Banks under $10 billion in assets don’t have to pay any additional premiums.

To hide the price shock from big banks inevitably passing the costs on to their customers, the bill would phase in higher deposit-insurance fees and increased required reserves over the course of a decade. Consequently, the FDIC’s ratio of guaranteed deposits to reserves—a critical indicator of the fund’s ability to protect taxpayers—would be dangerously distorted for 10 years.

We’ve seen this before. A similar lack of reserves prevented the shutdown of troubled savings-and-loan associations in the 1980s. Regulators lacked the resources in their insurance fund to close bankrupt S&Ls, forcing an era of “forbearance” when thrifts stayed open despite insolvency. It dramatically drove up the resolution cost of the S&L crisis from an estimated $25 billion had the problem been addressed in 1983 to an actual cost of $160 billion by the 1990s.

The newly proposed FDIC deposit hike resembles Congress’s 1980 increase of the insured deposit limit from $40,000 to $100,000. In its review of the S&L crisis, the FDIC said the increase “added substantially to the potential costs of resolving failed financial institutions” and worsened the moral hazard problem. The increase Congress is now considering would be more than 160 times the size of the 1980 hike.

The 2008 financial crisis represents another infamous example of expanding liabilities without necessary capital.

In the wake of the U.S. Justice Department’s newly announced criminal investigation of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, even some GOP members of Congress, including Sen. Thom Tillis (NC), warn of the resulting damage done to the rule of law. A slice:

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, quickly opposed the DOJ move.

“If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none,” Tillis said. “It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question.”

Tillis went further, saying he will “oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed—including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy—until this legal matter is fully resolved.”

Even a large swath of Republicans in the MAGA-friendly House were stunned.

“Will they stop at nothing to force their way on everything?” one senior House Republican said. “The administration is setting a standard they cannot achieve themselves and will haunt us all for a generation.”

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 401 of The Thomas Sowell Reader (2011):

Much of what are called “social problems” consists of the fact that intellectuals have theories that do not fit the real world. From this they conclude that it is the real world which is wrong and needs changing.

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On the Ground With Actual Factory Workers in China (2012)

Although this TED Talk by Leslie Chang was delivered almost 14 years ago, it reveals a relevant reality about China’s industrialization, at least before the reign of Xi. Mistaken are the lazy protectionists’ tales of China’s economic growth being rooted in slave labor, as well as the lazy progressives’ tales of western corporations profiting at the expense of their workers in still-developing countries. (I thank Steve Hardy for alerting me to this TED Talk.)

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Some Links

National Review‘s Andrew McCarthy points out that the executive branch of the U.S. government has no Constitutional authority, acting alone, to acquire more territory – including Greenland – for the United States, whether through purchase or conquest. A slice:

What got my antennae pinging was the fact that nowhere in the Times report is it mentioned that a president lacks constitutional authority to unilaterally add territory to the United States. It’s as if President Trump has now done this sort of thing enough times that we no longer need discuss legality — just audacity.

Still, whether it’s a topic of discussion or not, and whether what’s at issue is purchase or conquest, congressional approval — including any necessary funding — is required to add property to the United States.

For example, the Louisiana Purchase was carried out by treaty. Back in a time when presidents worried about such things, Thomas Jefferson had misgivings about whether the Constitution even permitted the acquisition of new territory. He briefly thought about (but decided against) seeking an amendment, concluding that a treaty in conjunction with congressional funding would suffice. The issue, though, was whether the law permitted the national government to acquire territory; it would not have dawned on President Jefferson that he could just take it or buy it with funds Congress had appropriated for other purposes. His administration made the agreement with France in 1803, the Senate approved it, and Congress appropriated the $15 million to complete the purchase — a gargantuan sum in today’s dollars, but still a bargain. (Napoleon needed the money for his wars in Europe and hoped to strengthen the United States vis-à-vis his rival, Britain.)

The Times report quotes two retiring senators — Jeanne Shaheen (D., N.H.) and Thom Tillis (R., S.C.) — expressing concerns that the president is paying insufficient respect to “treaty obligations” and the “territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark.” Well sure . . . but how about respect for the constitutional authority of Congress?

The president of the United States is the chief executive in a government of divided powers. The president is not the sovereign, and he has no authority to confer American sovereignty on foreign territory.

Alan Dlugash decries Trump’s on-going efforts to displace free markets with state control.

Phil Magness rightly notes that the ranks of the supporters – which include the ridiculously illiberal Adrian Vermeule – of Trump’s newly announced proposal to cap interest rates on credit cards speaks volumes about the dirigiste nature of Trump’s proposal.

Megan McArdle explains what shouldn’t – but, alas, what today nevertheless does – need explaining: “Reflexively siding with or against law enforcement is folly.” A slice:

Trying to separate the “what” from the “who,” I confess I am struggling to see what conservatives believe is obvious: that officer Jonathan Ross had good reason to believe Good was trying to hurt him with her car.

I’ve watched all the videos I can find in slow motion and in real time, and I see a man filming with his phone at the corner of a car making a K-turn, and may have knocked into him as it moved. Ross seems to be leaning over the hood from a side angle to put the first shot through the windshield and firing the second and third shots into the car from the side, which makes it hard to believe that he thought the car was aimed at him or anyone else. The road appears clear behind him.

That’s not the final word, of course; though a news outlet disseminated his cellphone footage, his body-cam video, if it exists, hasn’t been released. Further investigation and more videos may reveal additional details. Unfortunately, we’ve become so polarized on the “who” that I no longer trust this administration — which immediately deemed Good a “domestic terrorist” — to adjudicate the “what.” And that is even more troubling to me than the death of Renée Good.

Harold Black is rightly disgusted with the clueless self-righteousness and hypocrisy of the likes of Zohran Mamdani and Cea Weaver.

The Washington Post Editorial Board appropriately excoriates the Chicago “teachers” union for the damage it does to that city’s government-run schools. A slice:

Then again, failure seems to be the gold standard for this union, and now its president Stacy Davis Gates will be able to spread her radical agenda across the state after being elected to lead the Illinois Federation of Teachers. Davis Gates, who has a history of blowing off mandatory union audits and has described testing as “junk science rooted in White supremacy,” is clearly allergic to accountability and excellence.

If the CTU actually cares about fighting injustice, it should focus on the basics. Black students in third through eight grade score 33 percent lower on reading than White students, and low-income students score 32 percent lower than the rest. Meanwhile, the union is being investigated by the House Education and Workforce Committee for failing to produce an annual audit of its spending over the last five years.

My intrepid Mercatus Center colleague, Veronique de Rugy, notes that “the Minnesota fraud scandal is just the tip of the iceberg.” A slice:

Minnesota is not the exception but rather the example Americans finally noticed. Medicaid fraud has been endemic at the state and federal levels for decades. Politicians haven’t done much, even with scholars and journalists raising the alarm.

Medicaid reports $543 billion in “improper payments” over the past decade, though that figure omits one of the largest sources of error: whether states correctly determined the eligibility of the individuals they enrolled and paid providers on behalf of. According to Paragon Institute calculations, this brings improper payments to $1.1 trillion over those 10 years.

Improper payments are not identical to fraud; many involve missing documentation or administrative errors. But that distinction offers little comfort considering how little money is recovered. They are also an open invitation for more abuse.

Actual fraud, meanwhile, is widespread and persistent. In 2024 alone, state Medicaid Fraud Control Units reported more than 1,151 convictions and more than $1.4 billion in civil and criminal recoveries. Federal enforcement recovers a tiny share of what is stolen. Fraud that goes undetected never appears in the data.

That’s only the tip of the iceberg. Medicare, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and many other welfare programs also suffer from massive fraud. The Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) exchange subsidies provide another cautionary example.

A recent Government Accountability Office report shows that the fraud risks in the ACA’s advanced premium tax credit remain severe a decade after they were first identified. The ability to gain subsidized coverage for fictitious applicants without providing required documentation, tens of thousands of Social Security numbers used for overlapping coverage, and more than $21 billion in subsidies never reconciled with tax filings are among the findings. Nonetheless, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has not updated its fraud risk assessment since 2018 and still lacks a comprehensive anti-fraud strategy.

Congratulations to Timothy Taylor on his receipt of a very-much-deserved honor.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 1 of Francis W. Hirst‘s 1927 book, Safeguarding and Protection:

Some people imagine that economics and finance are complex, mysterious and almost incomprehensible subjects; but they really constitute the science of common sense, and their central truths are plain and simple. Of these, free trade stands first in practical importance, and once you have mastered the free trade principle in all its bearings you possess the elements of political economy. Free trade, or free exchange, is in reality the internal law of every pro- gressive and prosperous human society. The most reactionary Protectionist in England does not propose to “safeguard” the manufacturers and farmers of Yorkshire from their competitors in Lancashire by a tariff. The most reactionary of American Tariff-mongers does not suggest that the forty-eight states of the Union should be protected from one another. Within the Union free competition and free exchange are the touchstone of prosperity and progress. Thus in a limited sense the wisdom of free trade is universally acknowledged, and there is no logical argument against its extension from counties to countries or from interstate to international commerce.

DBx: Yes.

National-security concerns aside, protectionists have no good answer to this question: If it is economically enriching for you and the people of your neighborhood to trade freely with people in nearby neighborhoods, why is it not economically enriching for you and the people of your neighborhood to trade freely with people in other countries?

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Let’s Not Compete on the Zombification Front

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal.

Editor:

Last week you published Ram Charan’s warning that Beijing is ingeniously turning China’s economy into an indomitable economic colossus by creating huge excess capacity in “key” industries (“China Seeks Power, Not Only Trade,” January 2).

This week, your columnist Joseph Sternberg reports that China’s economy is increasingly suffering “zombification” (“China Drifts Closer to Its Own Lost Decade,” January 9). “There’s reason,” he writes, “to suspect corporate zombies are proliferating. By one recent estimate, among service-oriented companies the proportion of total corporate assets held by firms that don’t earn enough to cover interest payments has risen to 17%, from around 8% in 2019.”

If Mr. Sternberg is right, Mr. Charan is wrong. And Mr. Sternberg surely is right. Governments that tie-up – as Beijing does, with subsidies and other special privileges – ever-larger amounts of their economies’ resources in unproductive industries grow poorer and weaker, not richer and stronger. We Americans, therefore, should reject Mr. Charan’s counsel to create a “Department of Manufacturing,” which would be a U.S. government boondoggle destined to introduce economic zombification on this side of the Pacific – and thus reduce the cost to Beijing of its own zombification.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

Writing at National Review, Peter Wallison argues that “the Supreme Court is getting presidential power all wrong.” A slice:

The Supreme Court’s position seems to be driven by an idea — called the unitary executive theory — that has become popular with the current conservative Supreme Court majority. The first and most important case in which the Court adopted this idea was Seila Law, where the Court majority, led by Chief Justice John Roberts, signed on to this statement about the drafting of the Constitution:

The Framers made the President the most democratic and politically accountable official in Government. Only the President (along with the Vice President) is elected by the entire Nation. And the President’s political accountability is enhanced by the solitary nature of the Executive Branch, which provides a “single object for the jealousy and watchfulness of the people.”

This description of what occurred at the Constitutional Convention in 1787 is wrong and — as brief as it is — was essential to the idea that the president was made a powerful and all-important figure in the government at the time the Constitution was drafted. I am sorry to have to say this. Like all lawyers, I have immense respect for the Court as an institution and have always believed that what I have read in its opinions was well-researched fact. But this is not.

There was no thought at the Constitutional Convention that the president might be “the most democratic and politically accountable official in Government.” The debate over the nature of the presidency took place throughout the entire three-and-a-half months of the Convention, largely because most of the delegates — recalling the problems they’d had with King George only a few years before — feared giving power to a single person.

For the whole Convention, the debate was whether to have a single person as the president, or a group, or — if a single person — someone elected by Congress. There was no consideration — none — about the president ultimately being “democratic” or “politically accountable.” That was exactly what the delegates most feared. The Convention had already allotted to Congress most of the power they were willing to give to anyone, and they limited it to a list of specific powers in the Constitution’s Article I. The notion that these same delegates would — in Article II — give unlimited “democratic” or “politically accountable” power to a single person like a president is completely fanciful.

Although it was agreed that a president was necessary to see that laws were executed and enforced, most of the delegates appeared to fear a single person elected by the people, whatever his powers. They were concerned about an “elected monarch,” as they should have been at that time and place. This would have been clear if anyone at the Supreme Court had bothered to look at the debate in the Constitutional Convention.

Although the final decision, made in the last weeks of the Convention, was to have a single person as president, he was to be elected by an “electoral college” — a different organization than what we have today, but a compromise necessary to get the votes of the members of the Convention who feared a president elected directly by the people; their concern was that, with popular backing, he could become a dictator or elected monarch.

The original Electoral College enacted by the Convention did not have any relationship to the popular vote, as it does now. The electors were well-known people in each state, who would send two names to the central government. The person with the most votes would become president and the runner up vice president. This system was changed in 1804 to require the Electoral College to follow the popular vote in each state, but still we have had 19 cases (including 2016 and 2024) where the president was elected by the Electoral College, but without a majority of the national popular vote.

George Will is understandably dismayed by Trump’s megalomania. Three slices:

It is incongruous that Donald Trump, who advertises his disdain for things European, wants to give us something that no one in his or her right mind wants: a knockoff of France’s Arc de Triomphe.

…..

Given Trump’s gargantuan exercises of executive discretion regarding great matters of state, it might seem quaint to wonder why he cannot be stopped from treating Washington as his chew toy. This would be unworthy of our nation if he had exquisite taste. The fact that he revels in being a vulgarian takes a toll on the nation’s soul.

…..

Trump has the terrible strength peculiar to people who are incapable of embarrassment, and cannot fathom that they look ridiculous. Recently, however, Republicans in the House of Representatives, hitherto impeccably obedient to him, seem to have become healthily embarrassed about their subservience. There have been silent insurrections.

The New York Sun reads Congress’s spending bills so that the rest of us do not need to. It reports that the annual spending bill funding the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts refers to this venue by that name. If you can hardly believe this impertinence, check the bill’s page 371.

Andy Morriss reviews John Hasnas’s 2024 book, Common Law Liberalism: A New Theory of the Libertarian Society.

Christian Britschgi adds his wise voice to those who criticize Trump’s economically misguided scheme to ban institutional investors from owning single-family homes.

Trump last night revealed that he shares Kamala Harris’s affection for price controls by calling for a one-year cap on credit-card interest rates. [DBx: But, hey, not to worry; this endorsement of price controls comes from the leader of the MAGA right rather than from anyone on the progressive left, which must mean that these controls will work as promised.]

Scott Lincicome and Alfredo Carrillo Obregon make clear that “the US tariff system has gotten even more complex.” A slice:

The Supreme Court’s forthcoming decision in the Learning Resources Inc. et al. v. Trump case could significantly reduce the complexity of the US tariff system if the Court invalidates the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs. Such reprieve, however, would likely be temporary because the Trump administration has pledged to replicate the IEEPA regime through other executive tariff authorities, including through both Sections 232 and 301 measures, and previously unused statutes such as Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1934 and Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. (Though, such authorities arguably have more built-in procedural and/​or substantive checks than IEEPA does.) This system, in fact, might be even more complex than what we have right now.

It will therefore remain the case that a true reduction in tariff red tape will only be accomplished through congressional action to revise various US trade laws and reclaim the legislative branch’s constitutional authority over tariffs.

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal pleads for that which ought not – but, alas, today nevertheless does – need to be pleaded for: The U.S. shouldn’t deport a someone (namely, Guan Heng) who “escaped from China in 2021 having gathered, at great personal risk, unprecedented footage of secret reeducation camps and detention centers in Xinjiang province.” A slice:

He made the perilous trip via Hong Kong, Ecuador and by boat from the Bahamas to Florida. Before setting sail he scheduled the release of his evidence of Chinese prisons and camps holding the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement encountered Mr. Guan by chance last August and arrested him for illegal entry. He has languished since in a New York jail.

DHS last month dropped its efforts to send him to Uganda while his U.S. asylum case was pending. But a DHS spokesperson and DHS lawyer Niles Gerry declined to say Thursday whether they plan to support Mr. Guan’s asylum claim. The concern is that DHS will oppose Mr. Guan’s claim in a bloody-minded attempt to punish his illegal entry.

Jonathan Hartley writes about Adam Smith’s Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Here’s his conclusion:

Two hundred and fifty years after The Wealth of Nations, and two hundred and fifty years into the American experiment, the core insight still holds. Prosperity is not planned into existence. It emerges from systems that let individuals focus on what they do best, coordinate through markets, and operate within a framework of law, property rights, and limited public investment. This, in turn, helps lift many out of poverty.

Smith ultimately offered a blueprint for growth grounded in realism about human knowledge and incentives. America’s most significant economic successes came when it followed that blueprint, even imperfectly. Remembering The Wealth of Nations at 250 is not about reverence for an old book. It is about understanding why a decentralized, specialized, and institutionally grounded economy has served America so well, and why abandoning those principles would be a costly mistake.

Here’s wisdom from John Stossel. Two slices:

America’s going broke, but we lavish money on people my age, many of whom don’t need it. Our deficit spending will cause horrible pain, and yet young people elect socialists who promise more spending. They clap when Zohran Mamdani, my new mayor, says he’ll replace “rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.”

They naively think that this time, socialism will bring prosperity and kindness. They don’t understand that the opposite is true. Government stifles innovation and reduces our choices. The only thing that creates prosperity is capitalism.

…..

Much of what we libertarians believe comes down to Henry David Thoreau’s line: “That government is best which governs least.” It’s just true, since markets mostly police themselves.

In a free market, every exchange must be voluntary. Nothing is bought or sold unless both parties think they benefit. So good businesses expand and bad ones atrophy. We don’t need bureaucrats to interfere!

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