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Here’s a letter to the Washington Free Beacon.

Editor:

Thanks for publishing Ira Stoll’s insightful criticisms of Oren Cass’s latest denigration of the financial industry (“’The Finance Industry Is a Grift,’ Oren Cass Claims in the New York Times. Look Who’s Talking.” February 10).

Mr. Cass peddles the physicalist fallacy, which is the false notion that only activities that churn out the likes of lumber, steel, automobiles, and other tangible things are truly productive – or at least are more productive than activities that produce services. That Mr. Cass’s does indeed peddle this fallacy is evident from his many denunciations of free trade, which he blames for the U.S. consistently running merchandise-trade deficits, and for the American economy generating fewer manufacturing jobs than he has somehow divined should be generated.

This physicalist fallacy naturally fuels Mr. Cass’s antipathy to finance. Finance, in his view, produces nothing – a view that Mr. Stoll explains is hopelessly distorted.

It’s interesting to note that Mr. Cass’s organization, American Compass, has among its major supporters the Omidyar Network. Pierre Omidyar earned his fortune by founding eBay and then enhancing the profitability of that e-commerce site by acquiring Paypal in 2002 for $1.5 billion. In 2015 Paypal was spun off from eBay at a price of $50 billion.

Paypal produces nothing tangible; it ‘merely’ eases the moving around of money. Paypal is a finance company.

If Mr. Cass were correct that finance is “grift,” then large swathes of the financial support for his organization are ill-gotten gains.

Mr. Cass will likely protest that Paypal differs from other financiers, but this protest will be tendentious. The fact is, Paypal’s profits are honestly earned through its success at assisting people to more easily achieve their economic goals – just as are the profits earned by other financial-market activities. These gains are in no way ill-gotten – a reality that renders highly ironic Mr. Cass’s use of financial-market profits to berate financial-market profits as ill-gotten.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

GMU Econ alums Caleb Fuller and Scott Burns, understandably, are not favorably impressed by President Trump’s recent attempt in the Wall Street Journal to defend tariffs PUNITIVE TAXES on AMERICANS’ purchases of imports. Three slices:

At the end of January, President Trump penned a triumphant op-ed declaring “Mission Accomplished” for the signature economic policy of his second term: tariffs.

Unfortunately, his entire victory lap revolved around phony numbers, cherry-picked facts, and a strawman caricature of his critics’ arguments.

…..

Trump loves to tout that 4.3 percent annualized growth estimate for Q3 2025. Yet he neglects to mention his -0.6 percent growth rate during his tariff spree in Q1 2025. Experts project that actual growth for 2025 will fall somewhere between 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent — well below Sleepy Joe’s nothing-to-write-home-about 2.8 percent mark in 2024.

Incidentally, this 0.2-0.5 percent decline in real GDP is exactly in line with what economists predicted. Is 2.5 percent growth catastrophic? No. But it’s hardly an “economic miracle.” And it’s a far cry from the 5 percent growth we’ve been promised.

Another stat he conveniently omits: manufacturing employment has declined for nine straight months since Liberation Day. On that day, the White House predicted tariffs would add 2.8 million manufacturing jobs. Instead, we’ve lost 70,000.

…..

Trump loves to point out that billions in tariff revenue are “pouring in” to the Treasury each month. Economists yearn to snap back: “But who is paying it?!”

In his article, Trump cites a Harvard study that “found” foreigners are paying “at least 80%” of the tariffs. One minor problem: the study found the exact opposite: import prices are rising twice as fast as domestic goods prices, and virtually all of that burden has been borne by US firms and consumers. A different study found that Americans pay 96 percent of the tariffs. Evidently, Trump didn’t do his homework (or perhaps his ghostwriter put too much faith in ChatGPT).

Trump also takes credit for our declining monthly trade deficits. A reporter should follow up by asking: If trade deficits are so bad, Mr. President, then why don’t you cut your own hair to eliminate your trade deficit with your barber? Trade deficits sound scary, but they’re not. They don’t make us poorer. They aren’t akin to budget deficits. They entail no debt and impose zero obligation. They simply reflect net trade flows between nations. Truth be told, economists don’t think there’s any point in tallying trade “deficits.” What matters for our economic wellbeing isn’t net trade flows — it’s the total volume of trade and how easy it is to trade with foreigners. Trade, by definition, makes both sides richer. The more we trade, the better off we are — regardless of which direction that trade flows.

Sol Trujillo is correct: “Mass deportations sabotage the economy.” A slice:

No one wants to harbor violent criminals. But the Cato Institute obtained internal Department of Homeland Security data showing that 73% of those detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement between Oct. 1 and Nov. 15 had no criminal conviction and only 5% had a violent-crime conviction.

Research from the Center for Migration Studies finds that the undocumented workforce in the U.S. is large and overwhelmingly employed across key sectors of the economy. Many of the 675,000 immigrants deported last year were working to build data centers, manufacturing plants, energy infrastructure and housing. Who will take their place when the U.S. has six million unfilled jobs?

Deportations impose costs on citizens too. The Peterson Institute for International Economics projected in 2024 that deporting 1.3 million workers could raise consumer prices by 1.5% within three years as labor shortages worsen. Deportations lead to the loss of jobs for citizens, according to the Hamilton Project. As the lack of workforce tamps down business growth, fewer U.S.-born workers are hired as a result. Consumption also declines: The Brookings Institute estimates that the U.S. lost between $40 billion and $60 billion in consumer spending in 2025 because of deportations. That, too, slows economic growth.

The cost also shows up in your tax bill. The ICE budget has risen from $9.99 billion in 2024 to a proposed $11.3 billion this year, and last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act gives ICE access to a $75 billion fund on top of discretionary funding available through 2029. Add to this lost tax revenue from immigrants themselves. A 2024 American Immigration Council report found undocumented-immigrant households paid more than $70 billion in federal, state and local taxes in 2022.

Tyler Cowen argues that “if you want to see whether immigration is making cities better or worse, just look at property values.” Here’s his conclusion:

If we consider the United States as a whole, the main magnets for immigrants, such as New York City, Los Angeles, and Miami, remain very pricey. Home prices have continued to do well in most of the country more broadly. Which suggests that, at the aggregate level, immigration is hardly tearing us apart.

If you do not believe that and you live in one of these places, then you should test your assumption: Will you put your money where your mouth is by selling your home as quickly as possible? I suspect that challenge will find few takers.

“So much for the ‘warmth of collectivism'” – so reports Jack Nicastro.

Dan Alban reports on yet another of the many instances in the U.S. of the banana-republic practice of civil asset forfeiture.

The Editorial Board of the Washington Post nails it:

The Trump presidency ought to be an education for progressives in the ways government overregulation can distort politics and business. For the latest example, see the spat between Stephen Colbert and his network, CBS, around the equal-time rule. The controversy might make for good ratings and fundraising appeals, but Congress could address the underlying issue simply by repealing the outdated regulation — or eliminating the Federal Communications Commission altogether.

Dan Klein applauds Adam Smith’s “anti-hegemist spirit of ’76.”

George Will decries Trump’s, and his minions’, misuse of government resources to find evidence for that which there is no credible evidence to be found – namely, that Trump really won the 2020 election. A slice:

Someone should read to him “Lost, Not Stolen,” a 2022 report by eight conservatives (two former Republican senators, three former federal appellate judges, a former Republican solicitor general, and two Republican election law specialists). They examined all 187 counts in the 64 court challenges filed in multiple states by Trump and his supporters.

Twenty cases were dismissed before hearings on their merits, 14 were voluntarily dismissed by Trump and his supporters before hearings. Of the 30 that reached hearings on the merits, Trump’s side prevailed in only one, Pennsylvania, involving far too few votes to change the state’s result. Trump’s batting average? .016. In Arizona, the most exhaustively scrutinized state, a private firm selected by Trump’s advocates confirmed Trump’s loss, finding 99 additional Biden votes and 261 fewer Trump votes.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 633 of the 1988 collection of Lord Acton’s writings and notes to himself (edited by the late J. Rufus Fears), Essays in Religion, Politics, and Morality; specifically, it’s a note drawn from Acton’s extensive papers at Cambridge University:

You can prove geometry to every man, not history. You can only prove history to men of good will.

DBx: Indeed.

David Hume correctly identified in the human mind a powerful natural tendency, and an impressive ability, to rationalize belief in whatever the emotions want the human mind to believe. Share with 100 protectionists evidence and coherent argument that U.S. economic growth in the 19th century was not caused by – or even assisted by – protective tariffs, and 99.6 of them will remain unconvinced, each finding fanciful reasons to dismiss the inconvenient facts and logic. Share with 100 progressives evidence and coherent argument that legislated minimum wages diminish and worsen the employment options open to low-skilled workers, and 99.6 of them will remain unconvinced, each finding fanciful reasons to dismiss the inconvenient facts and logic. And so it goes for people who today cheer on industrial policy, rent-control, socialism, and countless other lovely sounding economic interventions.

Of course, we are all subject to this bias, and must forever be aware that we too, when confidently expressing the lessons that we believe that we draw from history and logic, might well be unwitting passengers on this Humean elephant. Yet it is also the case, despite this elephant, that there are arguments and theories that are indeed ‘true,’ and it remains the job of people of good will to diligently search for such ‘true’ truths amidst the countless number of false ‘truths.’

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“Power Tends to Corrupt…

… and absolute power corrupts absolutely” – so Lord Acton famously wrote to Bishop Creighton on April 5th, 1887.

History, of course, has no shortage of examples – from the minor to the monstrous – of this truth. White House advisor Kevin Hassett has just supplied history with yet another example when he not only criticized the new empirical study by the New York Fed that shows that the bulk of Trump’s tariffs punitive taxes on Americans’ purchases of imports are indeed paid by Americans, but when he – Hassett – also insisted that “consumers were made better off by the tariffs.”

The corruption unleashed by possessing power, or by being in friendly close contact with it, can be of the mind. Or this corruption can be of the soul. Or it can be of both mind and soul. I’d prefer to believe that Mr. Hassett’s rendezvous with power has corrupted his mind and not his soul – that his nearness to power has merely disengaged his ability to think straight, to reason soundly, and to examine facts and arguments dispassionately.

Minds can be fixed. Souls, once corrupted, not so much.

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The Absurd Doctrine of the Balance of Trade

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal.

Editor:

Jason Riley eloquently decries President Trump and so many other Republicans (and Democrats) today for falling for the zero-sum mercantilist fallacies that were exploded 250 years ago by Adam Smith (“GOP Doesn’t Know Smith From Adam,” February 18).

The most pernicious of these fallacies serves as the explicit justification for Mr. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs – namely, that a country that runs trade deficits necessarily loses wealth to other countries. This fallacy is also the one that Adam Smith spent most time and ink debunking. His conclusion, brilliantly backed by careful reasoning, is powerful and succinct: “Nothing, however, can be more absurd than this whole doctrine of the balance of trade.”

In a more-rational world, we would worry about our so-called “trade balance” with other countries no more than we worry about our trade balance with other towns, counties, and states – or, indeed, our trade balance with people whose hair or eyes are of different colors than ours. As it is, alas, our freedom of commerce is obstructed by our own leaders who are beguiled by this absurd doctrine.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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This letter was submitted several days ago to the New York Times but not published there.

Editor:

Oren Cass’s criticism of U.S. financial markets overflows with questionable claims and suggestions (“The Finance Industry Is a Grift. Let’s Start Treating It That Way.” February 7). An example is his blaming the growth in finance and its alleged obsession with “the Excel spreadsheets” for the fact that since the end of the Great Recession “productivity in America’s manufacturing sector — the output generated per hour of labor — has been falling.”

Manufacturing-worker productivity has indeed fallen slightly. But it’s doubtful that this decline was caused by an engorged financial sector, for the simple reason that since the end of the Great Recession the size of the financial sector relative to GDP has also fallen slightly.

This recent shrinkage in the relative size of the financial sector stands in stark contrast to what happened from the end of WWII until the Great Recession. During these years, the financial sector relative to GDP grew steadily and impressively, rising from 3% in 1950 to 4.5% in 1980, then to just over 8% in 2009 before falling to about 7% today. If increased financialization suppresses manufacturing-worker productivity, that productivity from 1950 through 2009 should have fallen, or at least not risen. But in fact, over those same many decades the real hourly output of manufacturing workers also grew steadily and impressively. In 2009 that output was about 40% higher than in 2000, 60% higher than in 1990, 80% higher than in 1980, 100% higher than in 1970, 140% higher than in 1960, and 200% higher than in 1950.*

These facts are difficult to square with the accusation that a growing financial sector suppresses the productivity of manufacturing workers.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

* Phil Gramm and Donald J. Boudreaux, The Triumph of Economic Freedom (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2025), page 93.

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Some Links

Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Riley urges Republicans – indeed, all Americans – to again embrace the wisdom that runs throughout the pages of Adam Smith’s An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. A slice:

At least since the Reagan era, the GOP has been the main vehicle for popularizing and advancing economic freedom. And though there are similarities between the Trump and Reagan presidencies—both men cut taxes, reduced regulations and connected with traditionally Democratic voters—philosophical comparisons between the two can quickly become strained.

At Mr. Trump’s direction, the federal government has taken an equity stake in Intel, becoming the tech company’s largest shareholder. It has promoted price controls on pharmaceuticals and credit-card interest rates. It has permitted Nvidia to ship advanced semiconductor chips to other countries, but on the condition that Treasury receives a 25% cut of the revenues. In return for allowing Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel, the government demanded veto power over plant closures and layoffs. And it has used tariffs broadly to bludgeon America’s friends and foes alike into economic submission.

This is industrial policy, the antithesis of free-market economics. None of it is reminiscent of Reagan, and all of it has been abetted by Republicans in Congress who spent years lecturing the Biden and Obama administrations about the pitfalls of government meddling in the private sector. As the Journal editorialized recently, our sad situation today is that “both major political parties lack notable champions for free-market principles.”

On March 9, we’ll mark the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s “An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations,” published a few months before the Declaration of Independence. The book is considered the foundational text of modern classical economics, and it wouldn’t hurt Republican officials to crack open a copy.

Smith’s “Wealth of Nations,” which spawned an entire school of economics, was written to challenge the prevailing mercantilist system in Britain. The mercantilists advocated on behalf of merchants and favored economic protectionism. They equated a nation’s wealth with the amount of gold and silver it possessed and perceived international trade as zero-sum, meaning one nation’s gain was another’s loss. It was essential for a country to export more than it imported. It’s important to “sell more to strangers yearly than wee consume of theirs in value,” wrote the economist Thomas Mun, a prominent 17th-century mercantilist. And nations must produce domestically “things which now we fetch from strangers to our great impoverishing.” Sound familiar?

Smith set out to refute these ideas. He argued that a nation’s wealth derived not from the amount of gold it possessed but rather from its production and flow of goods and services. Government intervention on behalf of the merchant class led to cronyism, and trade protectionism hurt consumers by limiting their purchase options and increasing prices. Central planning was inefficient. Economic growth resulted when consumers, producers and investors sought their own self-interests through voluntary exchanges.

Whether or not he realizes it, Mr. Trump is animated by a mercantilist conception of the world. But thanks to Smith, today we judge the performance of an economic system based on how efficiently it allocates resources to satisfy consumers, not merchants. Better to focus on creating wealth, not taking existing wealth from others. Republican officials spend a lot of time these days directing epithets like “Marxist” and “socialist” at their political opponents. But where is their criticism of Mr. Trump’s statist tendencies? And what is their competing approach?

Richard Reinsch rightly criticizes J.D. Vance and other “postliberals” for their misunderstanding of markets and their trust in the state. Two slices:

That is one of the reasons economic mobility matters to Americans and their families. As University of Virginia sociologist Brad Wilcox recently observed, “American families have been migrating from blue states like California, New York, and Minnesota by the hundreds of thousands to red states like Idaho, Tennessee, and Texas.” It’s not just that the red states are more socially welcoming to families and people of faith. Wilcox further explains that these states allow families to support themselves financially “more readily than in blue states” because red states have lower taxes, stronger job growth, and more affordable single-family homes.” A successful conservative alternative for American families would seem to be the revival of a supply-side economic and cultural agenda for families, not Hungarian traditionalism.

…..

Like Democrats of old and of today, who always have a victim group that requires more federal programs and more federal spending because of what the country has unjustifiably done to it, Vance is a grievance-based politician. The small-town white male is no longer the salt of the earth; no, he’s a victim. International trade took his job, he fought in the War on Terror for no purpose, and he fell victim to the opioid crisis that corporations imposed on him. Accordingly, the “new right” government must step forward with tariffs, industrial policy, a harsh anti-immigration posture beyond removing illegal aliens, pro–labor union policies, and progressive antitrust measures to provide for these new aggrieved Americans.

The hidden premise of the Vance right is that we are now living in a post–American Dream era. Reaganites have failed, leaving the vast majority of adults who once aspired to stand on their own, living free and independent lives, unable to survive. According to a new caste of American right-wing leadership, taking its cues from European conservative statists, American citizens should lead lives scripted for them, and leaders should abandon policies rooted in growth, work, and citizenship grounded in freedom and virtue.

Vance has been consistently clear, both before and after entering public life, that drastic government action is warranted on behalf of the American people. He has expressed admiration for Lina Khan—President Biden’s director of the Federal Trade Commission, known for her aggressive and progressive antitrust posture—and has supported the Affordable Care Act, and he can be expected to adopt an accommodating stance toward the means-tested entitlement state. His rhetoric of emergency and of a country in extremis reveals an agenda to increase the size of government “for our own purposes,” as he noted in a 2021 interview on the Jack Murphy Live podcast.

The Washington Post‘s Editorial Board decries Sen. Edward Markey’s (D-MA) Luddite efforts to obstruct the use of driverless automobiles. A slice:

The right question is not whether driverless vehicles have ever made a mistake; it’s whether they make fewer such mistakes than human drivers. Thus far the data suggests that self-driving is a substantial improvement, and consumers in the cities where Waymo operates don’t seem deterred.

The greatest risk to moving forward here isn’t technological but political.

Also from the Editorial Board of the Washington Post is this summary of lessons drawn from “Biden’s failed electric-vehicle push.” A slice:

By pulling EV models from their lineups, repurposing EV battery plants and laying off workers in some EV factories, the automakers are taking $50 billion in combined write-downs on their EV investments. The electric-vehicle investment bubble egged on by the Biden administration reflected a classic disconnect between a government’s lofty policy goals and a public that wasn’t convinced. Biden set the fantastical goal that half of all new vehicles sold by 2030 should be EVs. Currently that number is just six percent and dropping.

Former Securities and Exchange Commission commissioner Joseph Grundfest argues, in the pages of the Wall Street Journal, for abolishing the SEC’s “Shareholder Access Rule.” Two slices:

Of the thousands of rules and regulations adopted by the Securities and Exchange Commission, none are as divisive as the Shareholder Access Rule. It empowers investors with even minuscule holdings to force shareholder votes on nonbinding proposals—usually on topics including corporate environmental policies, diversity initiatives, political contributions and board composition.

Investors owning as little as $2,000 of a company’s stock—about 16 billionths of the average market capitalization of an S&P 500 company—can force a vote. Average monthly rent for a New York City apartment is roughly $3,500, 75% more than the rule’s minimum. This holding requirement might be the only thing in America not suffering an affordability crisis.

Only 11% of the proposals that proceeded to a vote in the 2025 proxy season gained majority support from voting stockholders. If a proposal is approved, the corporation’s board typically declines to implement it anyway. The Access Rule thus generates toothless, performative votes.

…..

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has vowed to rededicate the commission to its statutory mission. Repealing the Access Rule should be part of that agenda. The rule’s supporters would likely appeal that decision to the courts. Because of the Supreme Court’s decision in Loper Bright v. Raimondo (2024), the courts will then interpret the statute for themselves. Given the judiciary’s recent trend toward narrowing the reach of the administrative state, the future there looks dim for the rule.

Corporations can craft their own access rules that are better suited to their specific needs. That would restore shareholder voice under state law, which is where the question properly resides. But corporations should still work to fill the gap that would be left by repealing the rule. Guaranteeing proxy access to stockholders with reasonably sized holdings—much more than $2,000—respects investors, even when their views can be uncomfortable for management to address.

This “private ordering” alternative has decades of support from scholars and individual SEC commissioners. It’s the necessary replacement for years of illegal federal intrusion into shareholder meetings. The Access Rule should never have been adopted, and the legally proper response is to repeal it.

Here’s further evidence that immigrants to America do not ‘steal’ American jobs or otherwise reduce Americans’ employment opportunities: (HT Scott Lincicome)

The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data for specific areas suggests that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment roughly one-for-one. Extending the analysis to the industry level further suggests that the slowdown of net immigration had a large negative impact on local employment, particularly for construction and manufacturing.

Arnold Kling is a guest on a former classmate’s podcast.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from pages 178-179 of John Chamberlain‘s 1982 autobiography, A Life with the Printed Word:

But what the experience of my own dissident pilgrimage among the “scribblers” who have set the intellectual fashions of the past half century tells me is that the Left has nothing more going for it beyond its willingness to use force or deception in order to stay in power. It can suppress, but it has never managed to revive the spirit of innovation anywhere.

Jack Kemp has had some sharp words about a Republican Party whose symbol is the elephant. The elephant should remember what happens when it identifies itself with big business whose CEOs, managerial rather than entrepreneurial in psychology, compromise with the spirit of socialism in order to “get along.”….

We did not unsettle the Old World merely to reestablish its repressive ways in the New.

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Donald Newell’s letter – shared here in its entirety – in today’s Washington Post is as important and correct as it is succinct:

The national debt is a taxation without representation upon our future children. Put another way: It’s child abuse.

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal reports that the Congressional Budget Office “shows again that the U.S. fiscal problem is spending, especially entitlements.” Two slices:

The Trump Administration is boasting about its success in reducing the deficit, and give it credit for curbing what had been ballooning growth in discretionary spending like climate pork. CBO reports a $1.8 trillion deficit in the 2025 fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30, which is $57 billion lower than in the prior year. But hold the apple-polishing.

CBO forecasts that deficits will total $24.4 trillion through 2036, largely because of entitlements on autopilot. Spending will increase to $11.4 trillion in 2036 from $7 trillion, while revenue grows more modestly to $8.3 trillion from $5.2 trillion. Medicaid is expected to grow 47%, Social Security 74% and Medicare 105% over the next decade.

…..

All told, spending is expected to increase to 24.4% of GDP in 2036 from 23.1% this past fiscal year and the pre-pandemic historical average of 20.1%. The U.S. has never before sustained such high levels of spending in peacetime. Revenue is expected to average 17.7% of GDP over the next decade, roughly the historical norm.

As the U.S. issues more debt, net interest payments are projected to double by 2036, increasing to 4.6% from 3.2% of GDP. This assumes the 10-year Treasury rate remains about 4.3% over the next decade. Some corporations have recently borrowed at lower rates than the U.S. Treasury, which suggests that monetary policy isn’t all that tight and the market appetite for U.S. debt isn’t inexorable.

That’s a warning to Congress, if Members want a legacy worth having.

Pierre Lemieux warns that protectionism justified on grounds of national security too easily turns not only cronyist but also absurd. Two slices:

In a petition (a “Tariff Inclusion Request”) to the federal government, American Pan, the largest manufacturer of industrial and commercial baking pans in the country, argues that national security requires a tariff on competing Chinese pans. Recall that, last year, the same federal government imposed tariffs of 50% (or 25% for a small number of countries) on steel and aluminum. This made derivative products, such as baking pans, more costly to produce in America. The government woke up and allowed manufacturers of derivative products to petition for protectionist tariffs on their products as well.

In its petition, American Pan explains that American tariffs on its inputs have increased their cost by 90% for aluminum and 40% for steel. As a consequence, the company argues, the increased supply of low-cost Chinese pans “is a threat to National Security by threatening the food security of the United States.” How so? If these Chinese imports bankrupt American pan manufacturers and if, in the event of war, the Chinese government imposes an embargo on the United States, there will be no pans with which to cook food.

…..

The fact that American Pan wants the government to impose a tariff to protect its products against tariffs on its inputs imposed by the same government points to the absurdity of it all. But more than just absurdity is involved. The phenomenon serves the interests of those who would benefit from the growth of Leviathan. It expands rent-seeking opportunities and multiplies obedient government cronies. Americans are getting more accustomed to petitioning for privileges and to being dependent on political authorities.

Here’s the abstract of a new paper by Tamar den Besten and Diego Känzig: (HT Scott Lincicome)

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-World War II, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime.

GMU Econ alum Paul Mueller applauds the demise of ESG-obsessed proxy advisors. A slice:

For those who have been following issues related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), this is a major event. The two major proxy advisory firms, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass, Lewis, & Co. (Glass Lewis), have been criticized for using their recommendations on shareholder voting to push politically motivated ESG/DEI crusades (sometimes unbeknownst to the shareholders they represent). This has made the industry the target of a recent executive order aiming to increase federal oversight in the proxy advisory industry.

Ultimately, though, the proxy advisory industry was born out of regulation. Further government intervention could invite greater cronyism. If the proxy advisory industry wants to win customers back, it needs to focus on fiduciary obligations, not politics. If federal officials want greater transparency and accountability in the proxy advisory market, they should focus on rolling back unnecessary regulations and simplifying any regulations that remain to encourage a competitive proxy market.

Arnold Kling argues that, since 1980, “most of the gain in stock prices has come not from higher earnings but from investors willing to pay more for a given amount of earnings.”

A former police officer asks: “What the hell is ICE doing?”

Here’s the abstract of a new and fascinating paper – published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization – by my GMU Econ colleague Vincent Geloso and co-authors Kelly Hyde and Ilia Murtazashvili:

We explore the institutional foundations of public health by distinguishing among three broad categories of disease: diseases of poverty, which are income-sensitive and decline with improved living standards; diseases of commerce, which are contact-transmissible and spread with mobility and exchange; and diseases of affluence, which are longevity-mediated noncommunicable conditions such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes that become more prevalent as people live longer. This classification allows us to examine how economic freedom, through its effects on income, mobility, and survival, reshapes the mix of disease rather than health outcomes in aggregate. Using global health data, we find that economically free societies experience large reductions in diseases of poverty, modest changes in diseases of commerce, and a higher relative share of diseases of affluence even as total age-standardized mortality declines. These results reveal that institutional arrangements influence the composition of mortality more than its overall level: economic freedom enhances prosperity and resilience while shifting the burden of disease toward conditions associated with longer lives.

Andy Morriss reviews John Hasnas’s Common Law Liberalism.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 203 of Matthew Hennessey’s superb 2022 book, Visible Hand:

[T]he notion that some petty bureaucrat knows your interests better than you do is both empirically false and philosophically unacceptable.

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