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Trump’s Trade People are Hopelessly Confused

Here’s a letter to National Review.

Editor:

Jim Geraghty makes several excellent points in his critical assessment of Trump’s protectionist assault on Canada – which, of course, is also an assault on Americans’ economic freedom and standard of living (“The Canadian Menace,” August 28). But one further point, missed by Mr. Geraghty, warrants mention. It’s one that exposes a fundamental contradiction in Trump’s protectionism.

Mr. Geraghty quotes the White House’s complaint that “Canada also administers these [automobile-import] quotas in a way that compels U.S. auto companies to invest in production in Canada instead of the United States.”

Given Mr. Trump’s decades-long obsession with reducing U.S. trade deficits, the White House should regard this Canadian policy not, as it does, as a reason to punish Canadians with tariffs, but instead as a blessing – as Canadian cooperation with the president at reducing U.S. trade deficits.

When we Americans increase our investments abroad, our long-running capital-account surplus – which is the excess of foreign investment in the U.S. over U.S. investment abroad – shrinks. By the rules of international commercial accounting, a shrinking U.S. capital-account surplus is necessarily accompanied by a shrinking U.S. current-account deficit. Because trade deficits are by far the largest component of U.S. current-account deficits, a shrinkage of U.S. current-account deficits puts downward pressure on U.S. trade deficits.

More simply, when we Americans invest more of our savings abroad, we have fewer savings to spend on imports. Other things equal, the U.S. trade deficit shrinks.

The bottom line is that, according to the White House’s own professed objective, Canada is helping America: By encouraging us to invest more of our savings abroad, it puts downward pressure on the very trade deficit that Mr. Trump claims to be determined to reduce. Yet he responds by slapping Canada with higher tariffs. A clearer example of the internal contradiction in Trump’s protectionist policy is difficult to imagine.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

GMU Econ alum Dave Hebert documents Trump’s dishonest and erratic trade dealings with Canada.

J.D. Tuccille offers sound advice to Canadians – advice, alas, that they’re unlikely to heed: “Canada should ignore Trump’s protectionism and unilaterally enact free trade….”

…. because: (HT Richard Ebeling)

Also writing wisely about Trump’s trade war with Canada is Harold Black.

How trade policy uncertainty weakens foreign direct investment.” (HT Scott Lincicome) [DBx: But hey, Trump – although not economically literate people – should applaud because reduced willingness of foreigners to invest in America will shrink the U.S. trade deficit!]

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal reports that Trump’s tariffs punitive taxes on Americans’ purchases of imports are hurting the GOP’s electoral prospects in Texas. A slice:

The Texas economy is heavily exposed to tariffs because of its cross-border trade and integrated supply chains with Mexico. Texas traded $303 billion in goods with Mexico and overall exported $299 billion of manufactured products in 2025. The latter include electronics and computers ($71 billion), chemicals ($55 billion) and transportation equipment ($29 billion).

Because Texas is the largest state exporter of goods, it suffers a bigger brunt from retaliatory tariffs, such as those that Canada plans to levy on the U.S. in response to Mr. Trump’s tariff escalation. In case he hasn’t noticed, the tariffs have become an albatross for Republicans in close races across the country, including Texas.

Republicans hoped to pick up a couple of House seats in south Texas with large Hispanic populations after redrawing the state map, but those districts are drifting in Democrats’ direction this year. Most recent polls show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the state’s Senate contest. Every time he threatens more tariffs, Mr. Trump is making Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s day.

Warren Coats reflects on the rise in the U.S. of the popularity of socialism.

Robert Bork, Jr., explains how the Meta settlement further expands government’s reach into our lives as this settlement also makes Big Tech bigger. Two slices:

Meta’s settlement with state attorneys general is being celebrated as a victory over Big Tech. It may turn out to be something closer to the opposite: a case study in how regulation ends up entrenching the companies it’s meant to restrain.

Meta will pay billions to settle claims involving Facebook and Instagram. More consequentially, it agreed to an elaborate regulatory regime for users under 18—daily use limits, nighttime restrictions, school-hour notification limits, enhanced age verification, restrictions on certain features, stronger parental controls, and scrutiny from an independent auditor and the attorneys general themselves.

Some of this may be sound policy. But stack the pieces together and paradoxes emerge, ones that ought to bother conservatives—and anyone wary of government’s expanding footprint in private markets.

Start with privacy. Part of the original complaint was that Meta collected too much information about children. The fix requires Meta to get considerably better at identifying them. A 15-year-old claiming to be 19 can’t be taken at his word, so Meta needs sharper age-assurance tools—and the harder government pushes to stop teenagers from slipping past the restrictions, the more sophisticated that identification machinery has to get. We are protecting children’s privacy by requiring a company to know more about them.

Parental authority runs into a similar knot. The settlement is billed as empowering parents, and in places it does. But plenty of these decisions used to belong to parents alone, and now they don’t. Nobody’s mother or father decided that two hours was the right amount of Instagram for a 15-year-old—the attorneys general did. Nobody’s parents set midnight as the cutoff either.

Giving Meta a mandate to let parents impose limits is one thing. Having government impose the limits itself, with parents free to loosen them if they notice and bother to act, is another. The first approach hands parents real authority. The second substitutes a state official’s judgment for theirs and calls it choice.

…..

The deepest paradox is economic. For years the government’s message has been that Meta is too powerful—its acquisitions attacked, its dominance targeted for reduction. Now government is loading it up with expensive new obligations: age assurance, content controls, compliance infrastructure, parental-control architecture, an outside auditor checking the work. Meta can absorb costs like that without much trouble. Whether the next Instagram could is a different question entirely. Regulatory compliance behaves like a fixed cost, and a company of Meta’s size bears it far more easily than two programmers building a social app in a garage without Meta’s legal team, engineering bench or compliance department. What antitrust law is supposed to prevent—a barrier that keeps new entrants out—is exactly what this settlement risks building.

GMU Econ alum Romina Boccia and co-author Ivane Nachkebia warn that “borrowing to avoid Social Security reform could add $46 trillion to the debt by 2056.”

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 318 of Thomas Sowell’s 2002 collection, Controversial Essays:

The next time some academics tell you how important “diversity” is, ask how many Republicans there are in their sociology department.

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Some Links

David Henderson challenges Rob Schneider’s case for military conscription.

Mike Munger exposes the faulty reasoning of today’s critics of Milton Friedman. A slice:

Friedman’s economic model has worked everywhere it has been tried. The idea that this history of consistent success is now outdated is at odds with both history and logic.

If nothing else, he lives as a perfect bogeyman for the American left, which blames him for everything from neo-liberalism to designing authoritarian regimes all over the world.

Andrew Langer is none-too-impressed with J.D. Vance’s limp grasp of markets and American history. Two slices:

Vice President JD Vance recently told podcast host Michael Knowles that American conservatism has moved beyond Milton Friedman. Economic policy on the right, he said, is now “much more Alexander Hamilton,” a change he called “obviously a good thing.” Hamiltonianism, he predicted, “will dominate American conservative economic thinking for the future.” This was a deliberate endorsement of a post-laissez-faire economic philosophy built around government-directed development.

Mr. Vance’s justification is as consequential as his conclusion. Friedman’s ideas, he said, made more sense in the 1980s because America still possessed “a very rich and powerful institutional Christianity.” Laissez-faire economics operating with “Christian guardrails on everything,” he argued, is different from laissez-faire economics in today’s secular, globalized culture.

That claim confuses the moral freedom of individuals with a particular religious or institutional order. Markets don’t require comprehensive Christian guardrails. They require individual liberty, property rights, honest dealing, enforceable contracts and equal rules against force and fraud. These principles are compatible with Christianity, but they aren’t exclusively Christian. They allow people of different faiths—and no faith—to cooperate peacefully without agreeing on theology or a common conception of the good.

The market isn’t a moral authority standing above society. It is the accumulated result of human beings freely choosing to work, create, buy, sell, save and invest.

Mr. Vance also caricatures Friedman’s legacy by implying that laissez-faire elevates economic development above human dignity. Friedman’s case for markets was moral as well as material. Voluntary exchange allows people with different values and objectives to cooperate without forcing them into a single national plan. Dispersed economic power leaves people, families and communities free to pursue their own understandings of a good life. Concentrating economic and political power threatens prosperity and liberty.

The economy isn’t an independent machine that government must direct toward human flourishing. “The economy” is people—millions of them pursuing better lives through work, invention, exchange and cooperation. Human flourishing doesn’t result when officials subordinate this activity to their preferred social vision. It occurs when people possess the liberty to develop their talents, support their families, serve their neighbors and build institutions reflecting their commitments.

Mr. Vance’s invocation of Hamilton obscures a fundamental disagreement extending back to the founding. Hamilton was a great statesman, but his political economy wasn’t the uncontested expression of American republicanism. He favored energetic national power, executive authority, public debt, a national bank, protective tariffs, manufacturing subsidies and government-led development.

…..

People don’t flourish because government determines how the economy should serve them. When people are free to pursue better lives, flourishing follows. A free society benefits from strong moral institutions—but neither markets nor liberty depends on government to impose them.

My GMU Econ colleague Alex Tabarrok talks with Marc Sidwell about the economic madness of “equal-pay” mandates.

My intrepid Mercatus Center colleague, Veronique de Rugy, rightly blames the U.S. government’s fiscal mess on both major political parties. Two slices:

The U.S. national debt just crossed the $40 trillion threshold, doubling in less than a decade. Washington politicians have responded with their favorite fiscal game: blaming the other party. Democrats say Republican tax cuts are the culprit. Republicans say Democratic spending is the root cause. But both parties are responsible, with both hiding behind a lie of omission. And if we let them, they’ll keep driving us into the same wall together.

Sen. Patty Murray (D–Wash.) recently called Republican tax cuts “the single biggest driver” of the debt across the last 25 years. The number uses an unrealistic 2001 baseline that projected endless surpluses, as if the late-1990s revenue windfall would last forever. The Brookings Institution’s Jessica Riedl makes a more honest comparison by lining up the actual budget in 2000 against 2026. Tax cuts have reduced revenue by roughly 2 percent of gross domestic product. Spending rose by 5.7 percent, nearly three times as much.

…..

Tax cuts can be great, especially when structured to move us toward a better overall tax code. But they are not free and often do not pay for themselves, largely because they come with lots of nonproductive handouts to special interests.

Yet the fact of the matter is that despite every tax cut since 2001, revenue today sits near its long-run average as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP). With spending climbing nearly six points, we know exactly where the problem lies.

Peter Earle makes clear that the U.S. government’s debt is far too large to be ‘solved’ by American economic growth.

Here’s the abstract of a new paper at NBER by Jonathan Hall, Jason Hicks, Morris Kleiner, and Yun taek Oh:

We examine whether occupational licensing improves service quality and safety using trip-level Uber data that include driver ratings and telematics-based measures of driving behavior. Exploiting quasi-random assignment from proximity-based dispatch, we compare trips served by licensed and unlicensed drivers in two settings: a cross-border comparison between New York City and New Jersey, and a deregulation event in Houston. Across settings and specifications, including instrumental variable estimates, we find no consistent evidence that licensing improves consumer outcomes. In Houston, post-deregulation entrants are indistinguishable from previously licensed drivers on ratings and driving behavior, despite differing markedly in experience and age.

“Another potential headache for US data centers — Trump tariffs.” (HT Scott Lincicome)

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Quotation of the Day…

is from page 327 of the late Max Corden’s 1974 book, Trade Policy and Economic Welfare:

Trade makes new goods available to a country and so, it would appear, changes tastes and expands wants. In fact there is nothing analytically new here. The essential nature of the static gains from trade is that trade widens choice by presenting a country with a consumption-possibility frontier that differs from the closed economy one. The country can still choose the closed economy bundle of goods, but it can now choose from many more bundles than it was able to in the closed economy. If it is argued that the changes in tastes are undesirable, it is implied that the opening or expansion of trade may have adverse effects in terms of some kind of social welfare function that does not accept the primacy of individual choices.

DBx: Yes.

You show me a protectionist and I’ll show you someone who is arrogant. I’ll show you someone who believes either that he or she has tastes so superior to those of the bulk of most fellow citizens that he or she is entitled to impose his or her tastes on society, or that he or she somehow can divine knowledge, unavailable to others, about how to allocate resources in ways that will outperform the market at satisfying fellow-citizens’ tastes.

…..

Pictured here is W. Max Corden (1927-2023).

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Bill Gates’s Imagination Is Not Reality

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal.

Editor:

You report that Bill Gates “issued a stark warning about AI’s risks to employment and the human condition” (“Three Takeaways From Bill Gates’s 5,784-Word Warning on AI: ‘There Is No Plan’,” August 26). He complains about AI that “we are not preparing for it,” for he doesn’t “see evidence that leaders, experts and communities are confronting the challenges adequately.” And to slow the adoption of AI, Mr. Gates wants to tax AI tokens and bots.

A far more appropriate warning is against the hubris of Mr. Gates. Because he personally cannot imagine how people free of government coercion will creatively experiment and discover ways of dealing with economic change brought on by AI, he arrogantly presumes that such experimentation and discovery won’t occur. His poor imagination combines with his apparent ignorance of economic history – a history replete with examples of individuals in free societies anticipating challenges and meeting these in ways that politicians and bureaucrats could not possibly match – to cause him to embrace the ‘solution’ beloved by autocrats and tyrants: collective manipulation and management of the economy.

Almost all of what the late Nobel laureate Oliver Williamson called “the economic institutions of capitalism”* emerged through decentralized processes of trial and error in competitive markets – venues in which free individuals, with local knowledge, cooperate with each other to confront problems with nuance, fullness, and creativity that are utterly unattainable by the heavy hand of the state.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

* Oliver E. Williamson, The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York: The Free Press, 1985).

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Some Links

Trump and other protectionists – left, center, and right – should pause to consider that their favored restriction of economic liberty is one that was also favored by Chairman Mao. Here’s a slice from an excellent new essay by the Canadian-American economist Pierre Lemieux:

Unilateral free trade is not a fantasy. In the middle of the 19th century, the British government basically declared it. Another famous example, closer to us in time, is Hong Kong, whose government, led by British administrators, levied no import tariffs after World War II, generating fast growth even as many people in neighbouring China were starving — literally starving — under Mao Zedong. Both China and Hong Kong started from dire poverty but in 1996, the year before the handover of the territory to the Chinese state, per capita income in Hong Kong was 96 per cent of the U.S. level, while China was still at only eight per cent. (The number for China is now about 30 per cent.)

As Mao’s Selected Works confirm, he — and the Chinese Communist Party with him — thought foreign trade was an instrument of subjugation and tariffs were necessary for Chinese development.

Scott Lincicome shares this line from a recent report: “Trump says the US doesn’t need Canada. The economy says otherwise.”

Garland S. Tucker III tells of how John W. Davis helped to thwart Harry Truman’s attempt to seize U.S. steel mills.

GMU Econ alum Adam Michel explains that taxing the rich can’t close the federal deficit.

Patrice Onwuka offers an inspiring warning of the false promises of the socialism now ascendant in the U.S. Two slices:

I never get tired of only-in-America stories. My belief in the promise of the United States is endlessly renewed by the rich experiences of diverse people who moved to this nation for safety, freedom and opportunity. That’s what makes the socialist movement now surging through the Democratic Party so distressing: It challenges the very ethos that drew my family here.

Socialist candidates running on anti-capitalist sentiment are surging in Democratic primary voting this election season. They oppose the very thing that carried so many families to these shores: the idea that a better life is achievable through your own discipline and effort. This truth about America serves as a beacon of hope to the rest of the world, especially in places where cronyism and corruption reign.

But if we are not careful, the Zohran Mamdani-AOC-Bernie Sanders socialist agenda will snuff that light out.

Forty-one years ago, my family stepped off a plane in Washington, D.C. We left behind life on a tiny British colony in the Caribbean to start over in the U.S.

Montserrat, our previous home, is a 40-square-mile island with an active volcano. We settled in Boston, trading lush green hills, tropical fruit trees, black sand beaches and a slow pace of life for the hustle and bustle of a gritty urban city.

Carrying just a few suitcases, my parents brought their two children to America to give us a better future.
We didn’t live in the multimillion-dollar brownstones of Beacon Hill but in the Dorchester hood surrounded by gang violence, drugs and poverty. Yet those things never infected us. My parents taught us to rise above our circumstances and comport ourselves with dignity.

They also modeled faith and a strong work ethic, laboring at menial, entry-level jobs without complaint. Their belief in delayed gratification paid off when they saved enough to buy a fixer-upper in a better neighborhood on the outskirts of the city.

Importantly, my parents rejected government dependency. During the immigration application process, they had to prove their ability to support their family. Even during hard times, they never sought a penny of public support.

…..

After the joy of America’s 250th anniversary recedes, we must redouble our efforts to educate the populace on the first principles of the capitalist system that make the American Dream possible — property rights, the profit motive, competition and free voluntary exchange — to inoculate our country against the folly of socialism.

Because the government does not — and should not — own your home, your business, your labor, your money or your dreams.

Tosin Akintola is right: “The backlash against data centers is bipartisan, nationwide, and wrong.”

Also right is John Puri: “The notion that data centers are guzzling the nation’s reservoirs is, to put it softly, a fiction.” Two slices:

Based on the most recent figures, data centers consume 17.4 billion gallons of water each year. That sounds like an enormous amount, until you realize the nation consumes tens of trillions of gallons. Even including data centers’ indirect water consumption via the electricity generation needed to power them, they account for less than 1 percent of the country’s total water consumption. Data centers use less water than the nation’s golf courses or California’s almond industry.

…..

Ignore the water demagoguery. Halting the construction of data centers won’t refill the Colorado River or free up critical supplies for Western towns and cities. The only thing that can is a shift away from economically inefficient irrigation, which is best facilitated by fluid markets.

The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal makes clear – with evidence from Texas – that rich families are not the principal beneficiaries of school choice. A slice:

‘Vouchers are welfare for the wealthy,” Texas Senate candidate James Talarico said last year, as state lawmakers were on the verge of passing their first law for private-school choice. Now that program is launching, and official statistics show Texas vouchers are no such thing.

More than 85,000 students from 895 school districts have confirmed they’ll use a state-funded scholarship toward private school or home-school expenses in the coming year, according to a report this month by Texas Comptroller Don Huffines. Some 68,000, or 80%, are in households making 200% or less of the federal poverty level. That’s $66,000 for a family of four.

Another 17,300 students are in households between 200% and 500% of the poverty threshold, meaning no more than $165,000 for a family of four. More than 20,000 students, or about 25%, also have a disability. This outcome is by design: The law gives priority to children with disabilities and lower incomes, and a $1 billion funding cap means the program won’t reach other tiers of applicants.

George Will remembers and admires the memorable and admirable Dolly Parton. A slice:

“Once Dolly climbed over a fence and came down hard on something poking through the dirt: the sharp cutting blade of a plow. She nearly severed her toes.” Was she taken to a nearby hospital? No, there wasn’t one. “As Dolly’s older brothers and father held her down, her mother poured kerosene into the wound, packed it in cornmeal, and sewed up the wound with a quilting needle.”

Her family knew the old story of a cheerful preacher saying to a hardscrabble farmer, “This is a right nice place you and Lord have here,” and the farmer replying, “You should have seen the som’bitch when the Lord had it hisself.” Young Dolly was steeped in the ethic of self-reliance.

She was a savvy businesswoman even when getting started in Nashville’s music industry, which was not a lagoon of advanced thinking about the emancipation of women. In 1974, she was 28 and starstruck when Elvis Presley expressed interest in meeting her and recording “I Will Always Love You,” which she had written. But when Presley’s management insisted on at least half the rights to the song, she refused, the meeting was off, and she never met — never again wanted to meet — Elvis. But Ackmann reports that Parton said keeping the copyright to that one song made her enough money — perhaps $10 million — she could have bought Graceland, Elvis’s Memphis home.

Also remembering Dolly Parton is Reason‘s Billy Binion, who writes that she was “grounded in a reverence for the responsibility that comes with personal freedom and individuality. “I don’t want to be anybody else. I’m not responsible for anybody else,” she told CBS in 2023. “But I’m responsible for me.”

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 255 of Todd Buchholz’s 1995 volume, From Here to Economy:

Before the 1800s, most people in Europe lived as they had in Roman times, with simple agrarian methods leaving their lives at the mercy of droughts and floods. The rise of industrial capabilities permitted incomes to double in just a few decades, a startling development never seen in human history.

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On U.S. Trade Deficits, as Well as on Manufacturing Jobs

Here’s a letter to the Washington Post.

Editor:

The conclusion of Ramesh Ponnuru’s otherwise excellent exposé of J.D. Vance’s poor understanding of the U.S. dollar’s role as global reserve currency includes a small misstep (“JD Vance vs. King Dollar, revisited,” August 25). Mr. Ponnuru writes there that “lower budget and trade deficits, lower taxes, more manufacturing jobs, cheaper goods and services: These are all appealing but can’t be had simultaneously.”

He’s correct that these outcomes can’t be had simultaneously. He’s correct also that lower budget deficits, lower taxes, and cheaper goods and services are desirable. But he’s incorrect to suggest that lower trade deficits and more manufacturing jobs are necessarily desirable.

U.S. trade deficits are the counterpart of net capital inflows; they reflect the U.S. economy’s unusually great appeal as a destination for investment capital from around the world. Therefore, lower trade deficits brought about by reducing this appeal would be an outcome to jeer rather than to cheer. Similarly, any increase in American manufacturing jobs made possible by tariffs or subsidies that destroy higher-paying American jobs in the roughly 90 percent of the U.S. economy that’s not manufacturing would also be worthy, not of commendation, but of condemnation.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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This letter was sent ten days ago to the New York Times; it was not published there.

Editor:

Trump administration trade official Peter Navarro’s attempt to justify the White House’s crackdown on transshipments fails on several counts (“It Was a Great Scam While It Lasted,” August 13). First, these transshipments are the inevitable result of a trade regime – such as Trump’s – that, by rejecting the largely uniform tariffs that arise under a policy of most-favored-nation status, imposes wildly different tariff rates across different countries.

Second, while Navarro is correct that transshipping reduces U.S. customs revenues, he neglects to mention that these revenues are paid overwhelmingly by Americans. His complaint about transshipping, therefore, is really a complaint that transshippers are successfully easing Americans’ tax burden.

Third, Navarro is also correct – trivially so – that all motors, pumps, and other goods that Americans import are goods that Americans don’t produce. Yet he’s incorrect to imply that this reality indicts U.S. trade. Trade of course allows us Americans to acquire these goods at costs lower than we’d incur were we to produce these goods ourselves. But by releasing resources in the U.S. from the production of the goods that we import, trade also allows us to produce other goods that, were we to import less, we’d be unable to produce. Like all protectionists, Navarro is utterly blind to the production and jobs that are made possible in the domestic economy only by trade.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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