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Prompted by a report from the McKinsey Global Institute, Timothy Taylor documents and applauds “the US as an innovation economy.” A slice:

As the United States approaches its semiquincentennial (that is, half of 500 years) July 4, the McKinsey Global Institute offers a report that reads to me as a meditation on long-run US economic growth in “At 250, sustaining America’s competitive edge” (March 9, 2026). The US became the world’s largest economy in 1860, and has kept that lead since. In my reading, a major theme running through the report is the US leadership in originating and applying new technology.

Charles Calomiris wisely argues that it isn’t capitalism that needs to be ‘reimagined,’ but journalism that allegedly ‘reports’ and comments on capitalism. A slice:

Nowadays, especially as people are fretting about AI taking their jobs, and wondering what can be done to address “growing inequality,” and the “hollowing out of manufacturing,” some pundits wonder whether it is time to re-imagine capitalism. This sort of thinking is visible on both sides of the political spectrum – in that respect, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have more in common than either would have us believe.

But instead of re-imagining capitalism, I’d say we need to un-forget the facts about it that we should have known for many years, and un-learn some new non-facts that have crept in to our collective consciousness through a combination of malicious prevarication and lazy learning. As Mark Twain said: “The trouble with the world is not that people know too little; it’s that they know so many things that just aren’t so.’’

I’ve been blessed by friendships with three great scholars – Deirdre McCloskey, the late Allan Meltzer, and Phil Gramm – who have devoted much time and effort to defending capitalism by keeping the factual record straight and getting us to see which facts are most important. All three wrote influential books on the big questions about capitalism. Let’s un-forget and un-learn with them for a moment.

Our amnesiac journey begins with Deirdre McCloskey, who takes us through more books than you can shake a stick at, including her magisterial “Bourgeois Trilogy” (The Bourgeois Virtues: Ethics for an Age of Commerce; Bourgeois Dignity: Why Economics Can’t Explain the Modern World; Bourgeois Equality: How Ideas, Not Capital or Institutions, Enriched the World) and the much shorter and more accessible book written with Art Carden, Leave Me Alone and I’ll Make You Rich: How the Bourgeois Deal Enriched the World.

McCloskey focuses our attention on the great hockey stick of economic history: Prior to the Industrial Revolution, for thousands of years, humans suffered through miserably impecunious lives, with only very few people living at a standard above subsistence (the flat part of the hockey stick). Then, all of a sudden, in the late-eighteenth and early-nineteenth century, we see an increase in average human living standards, first in Britain and Western Europe, and later in other countries, and that improvement (the sloped part of the stick) displays an improvement that is not just permanent, but one that is perpetually growing. Classical economists like Adam Smith, David Ricardo and Karl Marx could never have imagined that this sort of permanent growth was possible, which is a large part of the explanation for why Marx was so pessimistically wrong about the future of capitalism.

The Editorial Board of the Washington Post reports that “amid an immigration crackdown, restaurants and hotels are struggling to provide quality service.” Here’s the conclusion:

But temporary tweaks won’t solve the imbalance in a country where the national unemployment rate edged down to 4.3 percent in March. America needs an orderly border, and the best way to reduce illegal immigration is to create easier legal pathways for people who want to fill jobs that otherwise sit vacant.

Chris Freiman decries government policies that restrict the supply of housing in the U.S. A slice:

The reason why we don’t see developers building more housing in response to higher prices isn’t because they’re not interested in making more money. Rather, it’s because their ability to build is heavily restricted in much of the United States. For instance, large portions of many cities are zoned exclusively for single-family homes. Apartment buildings are prohibited in areas where developers might want to build them. Even when building is permitted, lengthy approval processes can delay projects for years. In San Francisco, it takes an average of 523 days to secure permits for a housing project. In New York, a lawsuit challenging the 2018 Inwood rezoning — intended to allow roughly 1,800 new housing units — held up the first project in the area for approximately three years before it was able to secure final approvals. And height limits, parking requirements, and other regulations can also make construction prohibitively expensive. Recent analysis estimates compliance and fees comprise 24 percent of new home prices.

In short, the root of the problem isn’t primarily increased demand for housing, though demand pressure is present. Rather, the problem is government-imposed restrictions that make it difficult, if not impossible, to adequately increase supply in response. Consequently, prices rise and stay high. Even if every institutional investor disappeared tomorrow, the housing shortage would remain.

Richard Reinsch isn’t favorably impressed with the “abundance” movement. A slice:

As Veronique de Rugy and Adam Michel argue at Civitas Outlook, a movement serious about increasing the supply of housing and infrastructure—the Abundance movement’s most important goals—would also outline a tax policy that is neutral across all economic activity, taxes each dollar only once, and treats income and savings equally. At a minimum, it would question demand-side incentives like the mortgage deduction, and ensure that investments in real estate are not taxed or hindered at higher rates than, say, the production of goods. Abundance advocates at present do not do this. One cannot help but wonder whether such a comprehensive regulatory and fiscal approach is overlooked because it would shift Abundance outside the respectable liberal camp and into the conservative spectrum, removing its appealing allure to the liberal political class that desires both growth and equality.

GMU Econ alum Julia Cartwright identifies “bootleggers, Baptists, and others who benefit from tax complexity.”

Scott Lincicome tweets:

@USTradeRep’s Section 301 case says “systemic overcapacity” abroad causes trade surpluses that harm US manufacturing. As @stanveuger @KyleLHandley show in new comments, there’s no relationship bt low capacity utilization & big trade surpluses – if anything it’s the opposite.

Jacob Sullum is correct: “The FTC’s probe of Media Matters for America is a blatant assault on freedom of speech.”

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Quotation of the Day…

is from page 175 of the 1990 second edition of David Friedman’s excellent book, Price Theory: An Intermediate Text:

More generally, it will pay the landlord to include in the lease contract any terms that are worth more to the tenant than they cost him – and adjust the rent accordingly. Given that he has done so, any requirement that he provide additional security (or other terms in the contract) forces the landlord to add terms to the lease that cost him more than they are worth to the tenant. The ultimate result is a rent increase that leaves both landlord and tenant worse off than before.

DBx: Price theory is beautiful. Among it’s many splendid features is that it warns that government efforts to change one or more terms of an exchange (for example, the level of physical security landlords provide to tenants) will result in changes in other terms of the exchange that make the intended beneficiaries of the first change worse off.

One of many terms in landlord-tenant exchanges (or contracts) is the amount of money that tenants pay monthly to landlords. Proponents of rent-control naively believe that forcing down this term of exchange – that is, forbidding tenants from paying more than some government-allowed monthly rent – is the end of the story. Rent-control proponents stubbornly refuse to see that rental contracts contain countless other terms – some explicit, most implicit – that will, when rent-control is imposed, be adjusted in ways that leave tenants worse off even though tenants are paying a smaller amount of money each month to landlords.

Most proponents of rent controls (and of price controls generally) call themselves “progressive” – a term that in practice seems to be a label for people who proudly look only at the most obvious, intended consequences of economic and policy actions, while ignoring less obvious and unintended consequences.

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Some Links

The Washington Post‘s Editorial Board makes clear that income taxation in today’s United States is highly progressive. A slice:

There were 30,382 tax filers with incomes of $10 million or more in 2023, the latest year IRS data is available. That includes all sources of income. This tiny group of people, less than 0.02 percent of all tax filers and 10,000 fewer than fit into Nationals Park, made 5.9 percent of all income — and paid 10.9 percent of all income taxes.

The 101,509,107 tax filers who made under $75,000 together made 21.9 percent of all income and paid 7.3 percent of all income taxes.

Income is unevenly spread across the population, and the income tax burden is even more skewed — toward the top.

Also writing about the high progressivity of America’s income-tax system is the Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal. A slice:

Yet the notion that America’s income tax is biased against the working class is a progressive fantasy. According to the official numbers from the IRS, the top 1% of income-tax filers in 2022 contributed 40.4% of the revenue. The top 10% of filers paid 72%. The top quarter contributed 87.2%.

Eric Boehm writes about a study that finds that Trump’s tariffs punitive taxes on Americans’ purchases of imports raised the prices of consumer and household goods. Two slices:

Those tariffs have raised core goods prices by 3.1 percent, according to a new study by a trio of economists at the Federal Reserve. Those higher consumer prices were the result of retailers passing the cost of tariffs along the supply chain.

As of February 2026, the tariffs “can explain the entirety of the excess inflation in the core goods category since January 2025,” the economists concluded. “Our estimates indicate that tariff effects on prices gradually build over time, with cumulative effects seven months after implementation consistent with our theoretical measures of full dollar-for-dollar pass-through.”

…..

The new study is just the latest evidence that American consumers are basically paying the full cost of Trump’s tariffs. A paper published in February by economists from the Federal Reserve and Columbia University showed that Americans are paying 94 percent of the tariffs’ costs. Other studies from a variety of sources have found similar results. One recent paper looking at wine tariffs from Trump’s first term found that consumers actually paid the full cost of the tariff and then some, thanks to higher markups along the supply chain.

David Bier reports that, under Trump, legal immigration has been cut by more than illegal immigration.

My Mercatus Center colleague Jack Salmon discusses a new paper co-written by GMU Econ’s Vincent Geloso that exposes errors in a study that purports to show that economic freedom is bad for people’s health.

I’m eager to watch the recording, available here, of Ben Zycher’s presentation at the 16th International Conference on Climate Change.

The Cato Institute tweets: (HT Scott Lincicome)

Hungary tried national conservatism. The result: a lagging economy, rampant corruption, and a declining birth rate. Voters just delivered the verdict. Cato’s @johanknorberg explains what it means—and why it matters far beyond Hungary.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from page 150 of the original edition of Gerald P. O’Driscoll’s and Mario J. Rizzo’s important 1985 book, The Economics of Time & Ignorance:

Competitive firms have no property rights or titles to a market share, and certainly none to profits. In a market with free entry and no restrictions on competitive practices (e.g., no advertising bans), past market shares yield no ex ante guarantee of future market performance. Observed market shares are ex post outcomes. Absent a secure property right, they tell us little about future market shares.

DBx: Yes.

Protectionism and efforts to abolish the consumer-welfare standard in antitrust law are two means of attempting to create unjust property rights – that is, property rights in market share, or sellers’ property rights in that part of consumers’ incomes that in the past was spent on the outputs of existing producers. To the extent that such ‘property rights’ are created and enforced, other property rights are necessarily destroyed or attenuated – including the right of each of us as producers to use our minds, tools, and good reputation to compete for consumer patronage, as well as the right of us as consumers to spend our incomes in whatever peaceful ways we choose.

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More On Job Growth On Trump’s Watch

Here’s a follow-up note to a self-declared “forever Trump Man.”

Mr. M__:

In response to my earlier letter, you write that “the slow job growth of our president’s second term resulted from his deportations and hence those job numbers can’t truly be compared to numbers from other times.”

Well.

Estimates are that in the seven months from January 2025 through July 2025, Trump’s immigration restrictions and deportations reduced the U.S. labor force by 1.2 million workers. That’s a monthly average of 171,429. Assuming this figure remained the same through March 2026 – I can find no good estimate for the second half of 2025 and early 2026 – and adding it to the actual average monthly job-growth figure for January 2025 through March 2026 (21,400), we get a counterfactual average monthly job-growth figure for the first 15 months of Mr. Trump’s second term of 192,829.

Not bad. It’s a bit higher than in the last 15 months of Biden’s presidency, but it hardly differs from the actual job-growth figure of 191,467 for the first 15, largely tariff-hike-free, months of Mr. Trump’s first term. So there remains nothing even in these hypothetical job-growth figures for which we Americans owe thanks to “MR. TARIFF.”

There’s a deeper point. Trump’s draconian immigration restrictions and deportations are premised in part on the belief that immigrants “take” American jobs. If this premise were correct, most of the jobs abandoned by immigrants would have been filled by Americans desperate to hold those jobs, thus keeping the job-growth numbers high. But the pathetic actual job-growth numbers for the first 15 months of Trump’s second term reveal that, if you’re correct that this pathetically slow rate of actual job growth is indeed caused by Trump’s immigration restrictions, this premise is incorrect.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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On Trump’s Latest Boast About His Tariffs

Here’s a letter to a long-time protectionist correspondent.

Mr. M__:

Thanks for sharing this report on Pres. Trump’s crowing about recent economic data – a report that, in your view, should “finally quiet” my “knee jerk opposition to the president’s tariffs.”

Here’s the report’s key section:

President Donald Trump credited his tariffs on Saturday for monthly jobs growth and a smaller year-over-year trade deficit.

“Not only were the jobs numbers GREAT yesterday, 178,000 new jobs, but the TRADE DEFICIT was down 55%, the biggest drop in history,” Trump said in a social media post. “THANK YOU MR. TARIFF!”

First, the March 2026 trade numbers aren’t yet available, so presumably Mr. Trump is bragging about the February 2026 trade deficit being lower than was the February 2025 trade deficit. (The actual figure is 52% lower, but let’s go with 55%.) But not only was that not the year-over-year “biggest drop in history” – the May 2009 trade deficit was 59% lower than was the May 2008 trade deficit – because a shrinking trade deficit means less global capital flowing into the U.S., it’s unclear why the president brags about this development.

As for jobs, he’s got nothing to crow about. So far during Mr. Trump’s second term – the 15-month period of January 2025 through March 2026 – the average monthly job gain was a paltry 21,400. In contrast, the previous 15-month period (October 2023 through December 2024) – the final 15 months of Joe Biden’s presidency – saw an average monthly job gain of 126,600, a figure nearly six times larger than that which marks the first 15 months of Mr. Trump’s second term.

Even more impressive was average monthly job gains during the first 15 months of Mr. Trump’s first term, a period affected by few tariff hikes: January 2017 through March 2018 witnessed average monthly job growth of 191,467 – nearly nine times larger than during the first 15 months of Mr. Trump’s second term.

While Trump’s tariffs – and, importantly, the uncertainty they create – aren’t the only policies now in play that affect employment levels, the evidence simply will not support Mr. Trump’s boast that his tariffs have fueled impressive job growth.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

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Some Links

Brian Albrecht isn’t giving up on price theory. A slice:

[Tyler] Cowen defines price theory as “the view that the basic intuitive economic concepts, as would be taught in intermediate microeconomics, are highly useful and for advanced problems too.” A hypothesis should be “intelligible in terms of microeconomic concepts that you can hold in your mind and understand.” You should be able to explain it to a smart non-economist.

That’s what we’ve been doing at this newsletter for six years. And what Cowen describes is real; the profession has moved on.

It’s important to note that he’s measuring the market share of price theory as a research technique, and finding it has fallen. Fair enough. The credibility revolution raised the bar for publishable empirical work. Machine learning generates predictions from 360,000 factors. Structural estimation recovers parameters from computational models. Mechanism design proves theorems. In all of these, the technique itself is a large part of the contribution. Price theory doesn’t work that way. You can’t build a career around “I thought clearly about the problem using supply and demand.” I would be much more high status if one could. But the profession rewards new techniques, it always has, and broad, basic price theory isn’t one in 2026.

Instead, price theory plays a different, hidden role in research.

Price theory is the reasoning that tells you whether the technique was pointed at the right question and whether the answer makes sense. It’s upstream of the identification strategy, upstream of the structural model, upstream of the theorem, heck even upstream of data collection. It’s the discipline that hears “corporate profits rose during inflation” and immediately asks, relative to what, as a share of what, and is that consistent with the standard model, or does it require a special story?

The profession has gotten extraordinarily good at technique. The tools are more powerful than they were 30 years ago. The results are more carefully identified. But every one of those results still needs someone asking whether the mechanism is plausible, whether the magnitudes are realistic, whether the finding generalizes or is specific to one context, and what it means for policy. Those questions are not answered by running the technique again with better data. They require economic reasoning. Price theory.

Wall Street Journal columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes insightfully about Cuba. A slice:

But now the regime and its apologists, like Rep. Jim McGovern (D., Mass.), are pushing the line that Cuba’s recurring electricity blackouts are caused by the U.S. “By blocking power to Cuba’s hospitals, the United States is guilty of committing a serious human rights abuse,” Mr. McGovern wrote on X.

Mr. McGovern has long wanted to treat the military dictatorship like a normal government. But it’s worth correcting the record.

Cuba’s economic crisis is caused by a hard-currency shortage. Output from once-vibrant export industries like sugar, tobacco, coffee and fruit can’t even supply the domestic market. Barren agricultural fields are covered in weeds. Manufacturing is gone. Even tourism, which the regime has tried to hype since the 1990s, is in bad shape. Handouts from the Soviet Union, bilateral lenders and Venezuela, which kept the country afloat for decades, are no more.

Even before January, when the Trump administration began to ensure that Venezuelan oil largess couldn’t go to Cuba, the monthly Cuban ration book supplied food for less than two weeks. Cubans are kept alive thanks mainly to the country’s most reliable export: people. If not for remittances, families would suffer even greater privation.

Andrew Follett makes a free-market case for the building of data centers. Here’s his conclusion:

Data centers are not a luxury or a niche issue; they are the indispensable infrastructure for the AI-driven economy. Prioritizing their rapid build-out, paired with bold expansion and reform of the bulk power system, is essential for long-term U.S. competitiveness against China and sustained American prosperity. The U.S. does not need central planning; it needs the regulatory barriers removed so free enterprise can meet the AI moment.

James Pethokoukis is correct: “America needs a bigger pie, not just bigger slices.”

Jack Nicastro decries the bipartisan itch to have government regulate AI.

Antony Davies explains that many Americans’ economic misperceptions are caused by the illusions uncorked by the government’s covid-era spending. Here’s his conclusion:

If current trends continue, we’ll be into the 2030s before more than half of households recover the purchasing power they enjoyed at the height of the Covid stimulus. Economists can keep pointing to solid fundamentals, but people will continue to be unimpressed. The stimulus showed them a better life that they have yet to recapture. That this better life was an illusion built on unsustainable government borrowing is of little comfort.

Scott Winship tweets: (HT Scott Lincicome)

“Current generation of young adults will be the first to do worse than their parents” is a perennial claim that never comes true (not economically anyway). I’ll bet [Bernie] Sanders has said it of multiple generations at this point.

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Quotation of the Day…

is from Thomas Jefferson’s argument in the 1770 case Howell v. Netherland:

Under the law of nature, all men are born free, every one comes into the world with a right to his own person, which includes the liberty of moving and using it at his own will. This is what is called personal liberty, and is given him by the author of nature, because necessary for his own sustenance.

DBx: Born on this date – April 13th – in 1743 in Shadwell, Virginia, Jefferson 33 years later wrote one of humankind’s most stirring, and justly most famous, defenses of individual liberty. The fact that Jefferson often failed personally to live up to his ideals is undeniable, well-known, and regrettable. Yet it’s also true that Jefferson’s quill is one of history’s most effective forces for true liberalism.

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Some Links

Scott Winship corrects several of Michael Brendan Dougherty’s misconceptions about the American economy. A slice:

The second issue Dougherty raises is his claim that “the overwhelming contributor to the growing upper-middle class is not higher productivity . . . It’s more hours worked, and at a higher wage.” Let me quickly just point out that according to data I assembled for an earlier paper, between 1979 and 2022, net productivity (which excludes depreciation — don’t ask) in the nonfarm business sector rose 97 percent while hourly wages rose 85 percent. So it doesn’t exactly feel like productivity growth was unimportant. More good news!

Furthermore, it’s not the case that only women have seen wage gains while men “saw stagnant or modest growth in their wages” and deterioration in their employment. Rather, the numbers behind Figure 2 in this paper of mine indicate that the median wage of men ages 25 to 54 rose by 16 to 29 percent from 1989 to 2023 (and I’d advocate hard for the 29 percent as the better number). One can wish that increase was stronger, but it nevertheless means that men are better off than ever.

Jacob Sullum reports on the legal challenge to Trump’s Section 122 tariffs punitive taxes on Americans’ purchases of imports. A slice:

In response to the lawsuits, Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate notes that the plaintiffs who opposed Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, which likewise included a bunch of blue states along with small businesses represented by the LJC, suggested that Section 122 was the appropriate vehicle for tariffs aimed at addressing the purported problem posed by the longstanding U.S. trade deficit in goods. “Plaintiffs repeatedly argued that the President’s tariffs were unlawful under IEEPA but would be justified under Section 122,” Shumate writes. He adds that federal courts, including the CIT, “relied on plaintiffs’ counsel’s arguments and agreed that Section 122 was the proper authority for imposing such tariffs.”

Shumate does not mention that the Trump administration has also changed its tune. In defense of the IEEPA tariffs, the government’s lawyers rejected the idea that the president should instead rely on Section 122. That provision, Shumate and his colleagues said does not have “any obvious application here, where the concerns the President identified in declaring an emergency arise from trade deficits, which are conceptually distinct from balance-of-payments deficits.”

The Trump administration wants the CIT to forget about that concession, which goes to the heart of the president’s asserted authority under Section 122. The government’s lawyers are now contradicting their prior position, saying a trade deficit is enough to establish “fundamental international payments problems.” Citing the official “balance of payments” numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Shumate urges the CIT to focus on the “current account,” which consists mainly of the trade deficit, and ignore the other accounts that figure in the calculation. Those countervailing accounts include foreign investment in the United States and borrowing via U.S. government bonds.

John Puri writes sensibly about egg prices.

Here’s the Cato Institute’s amicus brief in a case on the banana-republic practice of civil asset forfeiture.

Mammas don’t let your babies grow up to be disgruntled, underemployed PhDs.

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Quotation of the Day…

… is from pages 68-69 of Viktor Vanberg’s 2023 paper “Public Choice, Behavioral Symmetry, and the Ethics of Citizenship,” which is chapter 5 of The Legacy of Richard E. Wagner (Peter J. Boettke and Christopher J. Coyne, eds., 2023) [footnotes deleted]:

In a sense, the public-choice outlook at politics was meant to mirror the way welfare economists looked at markets. Just as the latter diagnosed real-world markets to be plagued by “failures” when compared with the ideal of perfectly working markets, public-choice economists insisted that real-world politics likewise “failed” when measured against its ideal image. Yet, unlike welfare economists, who considered such diagnosis of “market failures” a sufficient basis for recommending government intervention, public choice scholars did not draw symmetric conclusions. Rather, the point they sought to make was that measuring either real-world markets or real-world politics against unrealizable ideal standards is of no help whatsoever for answering the question of how problems a society faces ought to be dealt with. The only meaningful way to seek answers to such questions is, from a public choice perspective, to compare and evaluate feasible institutional arrangements, both in markets and in politics.

DBx: Pictured here are Jim Buchanan and Viktor Vanberg.

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