While Canada has legitimate grievances against the Trump administration’s policies and behaviour, the pursuit of dollar-for-dollar retaliation inadvertently strengthens Trump’s hand in defending these measures from a likely court challenge in the United States. The new measures rely on an obscure clause of U.S. law known as Section 338. While Trump claims sweeping tariff authorities under this provision, this 1930 law was likely superseded by subsequent statutes in the 1960s and 1970s that restricted its exercise. These factors render it susceptible to a legal challenge, much like the “Liberation Day” tariffs that the courts struck down earlier this year.
Trump’s legal argument for reviving this clause rests upon his claim that Canada is “discriminating” against American products. The economic arguments and empirical data behind Trump’s claims about Canada are fundamentally unsound and appear to be based on his belief that a $60-billion dollar trade deficit represents actual losses of US money to Canada. In no small irony, the Carney government’s dollar-for-dollar response breathes inadvertent legitimacy into Trump’s claims by introducing precisely the types of discriminatory restrictions that the Section 338 tariffs first posited.
As Cato scholars have repeatedly explained, the US trade deficit isn’t necessarily a “bad” thing and, in fact, is usually a sign of strong underlying fundamentals like a growing US economy and the United States’ attractiveness as an investment destination. The latest data also support this view, which again contradicts the White House’s pro-tariff, anti-deficit narratives.
“The economy can’t keep pace with the relentless growth of programs such as Social Security and Medicare,” David Ditch, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute, told Reason. “Seniors are receiving far more in benefits than they paid in payroll taxes. America’s leaders should stop pretending otherwise.”
Still, the single biggest factor in rising spending and growing deficits is actually the size of the national debt itself. Interest payments on the debt rose 11 percent in fiscal year 2026 and totaled more than $1.1 trillion.
George Will writes about France’s worsening economic woes. A slice:
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 75, from the far left of the left, favors “freezing” a portion of France’s national debt, the size of which is 119 percent of the nation’s GDP. Sometimes he calls for “canceling” the portion. Or vows that as president he would “take” it. He avoids a straightforward noun that denotes the policy of borrowing money and then breaking the promise to repay it: “theft.”
Precision is not Mélenchon’s strong suit, but he is reasonably clear that he has in mind the 15 percent of French bonds held by the Bank of France. He might, or might not, have only those in mind when he talks about throwing bonds “into the fire” or putting them “in the fridge.” He says “no one will ever notice that they’ve disappeared,” and a poll shows a French plurality thinks coping with the national debt by repudiating some of it is a neat idea.
In the short — very short — term this might avoid unpleasant measures (increased taxes, decreased social benefits). A French plurality might dislike the consequences of France, the European Union’s second-largest economy, paying future interest rates appropriate for a rogue borrower and thief.
But many nations, including the United States, often have a plurality who regard many problems as Scarlett O’Hara did in “Gone With the Wind”: “I can’t think about that right now. … I’ll think about that tomorrow.” The comforting assumption is that “Annie” of the Broadway musical was right: Tomorrow is always a day away.
A few days ago, the U.S. 2026 fiscal year ended (Sept. 30). According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, with economic growth strong and unemployment low, the federal government nevertheless spent 22.9 percent of gross domestic product ($7.4 trillion) while raising revenue of just 16.7 percent of GDP ($5.4 trillion). This $2 trillion deficit is a (redundant) reminder:
The sound and fury of this autumn’s politics signifies nothing but the bipartisan determination to talk about anything (data centers are the distraction-du-jour) other than the most important thing: the ruinous consensus beneath today’s performative rancor.
Both parties are committed, behaviorally if not ideologically, to running huge deficits at every point in the business cycle. As a result, interest costs, which were $241 billion in fiscal 2016, have more than tripled in 10 years, to $1.1 trillion.
Wall Street Journal columnist Allysia Finley talks with Zack Korman about “effective altruism” and AI doomerism. Two slices:
Effective altruism purports to be a practical approach to doing good and is inspired by utilitarianism, a philosophy that Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832) summed up as follows: “It is the greatest happiness of the greatest number that is the measure of right and wrong.”
Effective altruists add to utilitarianism the concept of “longtermism”—spelled with no hyphen—which Mr. Korman defines as the idea “that future lives matter the most, so to speak, because there’s so many more of them.”
That leads in wildly speculative directions: “So yes, there’s eight billion people alive today, but over the next thousand years, we might have hundreds of billions of people that come and go. And if something bad were to happen to prevent those hundred billion people from coming into existence, we’ve effectively committed genocide.” This flight of fancy implies a moral imperative: “So basically if you can do something to change the risk a little bit of that happening, you’ve committed the greatest act of humanity ever.”
Effective-altruist organizations are “very committed to this concept of catastrophic risk and how do you prevent it. And one of the big areas of catastrophic risk would be AI kills everyone.” That, Mr. Korman concludes, is why “effective altruists as a community are extraordinarily doomer.”
Many of this ideology’s adherents have ties to large AI companies. Anthropic’s president, Daniela Amodei, sister of CEO Dario Amodei, is the wife of Holden Karnofsky, who co-founded two large effective altruist nonprofits. Anthropic received early funding from effective-altruism adherents including Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, who is serving a 25-year term in prison after conviction on federal fraud and conspiracy charges. Mr. Bankman-Fried misappropriated billions in client funds. With so many effective altruists on the payroll, it’s little wonder that AI labs are filled with doomers.
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He also worries that a government agency or private entity tasked with regulating AI could be captured by big AI labs. He points to the nonprofit Model Evaluation and Threat Research, which Anthropic employs to review its models. METR employs many former employees of AI labs and has taken money from effective-altruist groups.
Regulation could also become a get-out-of-jail card that relieves companies of consequences for harm caused by their AI models that they could have prevented. It “becomes sort of an excuse, like, ‘Well, the regulatory body signed off on our security practices and we still killed someone.’ Whereas at the end of the day, the obligation has to be on the company to not kill people. . . . I think that’s why I’m hesitant to recommend actual regulatory measures—because I believe we already have the correct one, which is legal liability.”
GMU Econ alum Wayne Crews assesses the economic-policy performance of Trump 2.0.
David Henderson sings the praises of consumer surplus. Two slices:
Indeed, one of my students gave an example that I hadn’t previously considered but that I have since used in speeches to illustrate the concept of consumer surplus. It goes like this: You go to a store and find a shirt with a price tag of $50. You try it on and decide you like it. You go to the cash register to pay. The salesperson points out something you hadn’t noticed: the shirt is on sale for 40 percent off and so the price is actually $30. My student pointed out that a minimum estimate of your consumer surplus is $20 because you would have been willing to pay $50 but instead paid only $30. Of course, that’s a minimum estimate because you probably would have been willing to pay at least somewhat more than $50. How do we know? Because you probably weren’t indifferent between buying the shirt at $50 or keeping your money.
Once you understand and really appreciate consumer surplus, you can start looking around and appreciating what you have.
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What I like most about consumer surplus is not all the technical details and measurements, however important they are. What I love is that consumer surplus is a way of making us realize just how lucky and fortunate we are as Americans. Even those in the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution enjoy modern conveniences that make everyday life easier than it was for our parents—and considerably easier than it was for our grandparents.


An economy exists to make trade-offs, and a market economy makes the terms of those trade-offs plain with price tags representing the relative costs of producing different things. To have politicians arbitrarily change the price tags, so that prices no longer represent the real costs, is to defeat the whole purpose.
It is true that almost any kind of manufacturing can, at a price, be done almost anywhere. It is not true that every or any kind of manufacturing can be done as efficiently in one place as in another, i.e. that location is irrelevant to it. Nor is the economic advantage of particular locations for particular industries destroyed by the existence of international boundaries. Within any national area, prudent business men take pains to erect their factories at the point of greatest convenience, having regard to differences in sources of raw materials, location of markets, supply of labor power, and so forth. Such differences do not disappear because the possible sites between which the choice has to be made have a political frontier between them. The development of international trade under conditions of freedom is in itself the proof of gain by national specialisation; if there were no gain, there would be no trade.
One advantage of commercial society is that the value of such knowledge is constantly put to the test. It is not enough to simply have a new idea. It is equally necessary to subject the idea to the endless feedback provided by the market. Without these ongoing reactions, the capacity of knowledge to change reality becomes more limited. Markets help us to know what is inefficient and understand what requires adaptation. They also reveal gaps in knowledge, tell us which forms of existing knowledge are becoming less economically relevant or commercially unviable, and provide us with information about possible ways forward.
