Here’s a letter to a long-time protectionist correspondent.
Mr. M__:
Thanks for sharing this report on Pres. Trump’s crowing about recent economic data – a report that, in your view, should “finally quiet” my “knee jerk opposition to the president’s tariffs.”
Here’s the report’s key section:
President Donald Trump credited his tariffs on Saturday for monthly jobs growth and a smaller year-over-year trade deficit.
“Not only were the jobs numbers GREAT yesterday, 178,000 new jobs, but the TRADE DEFICIT was down 55%, the biggest drop in history,” Trump said in a social media post. “THANK YOU MR. TARIFF!”
First, the March 2026 trade numbers aren’t yet available, so presumably Mr. Trump is bragging about the February 2026 trade deficit being lower than was the February 2025 trade deficit. (The actual figure is 52% lower, but let’s go with 55%.) But not only was that not the year-over-year “biggest drop in history” – the May 2009 trade deficit was 59% lower than was the May 2008 trade deficit – because a shrinking trade deficit means less global capital flowing into the U.S., it’s unclear why the president brags about this development.
As for jobs, he’s got nothing to crow about. So far during Mr. Trump’s second term – the 15-month period of January 2025 through March 2026 – the average monthly job gain was a paltry 21,400. In contrast, the previous 15-month period (October 2023 through December 2024) – the final 15 months of Joe Biden’s presidency – saw an average monthly job gain of 126,600, a figure nearly six times larger than that which marks the first 15 months of Mr. Trump’s second term.
Even more impressive was average monthly job gains during the first 15 months of Mr. Trump’s first term, a period affected by few tariff hikes: January 2017 through March 2018 witnessed average monthly job growth of 191,467 – nearly nine times larger than during the first 15 months of Mr. Trump’s second term.
While Trump’s tariffs – and, importantly, the uncertainty they create – aren’t the only policies now in play that affect employment levels, the evidence simply will not support Mr. Trump’s boast that his tariffs have fueled impressive job growth.
Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030
