Wall Street Journal columnist Kimberley Strassel decries MAGA conservatives joining with progressives in peddling policies rooted in economic ignorance. Two slices:
It was once a Republican article of faith—mostly because it is true—that government is the cause of most problems. Donald Trump’s GOP is finding a more politically expedient bogeyman. Welcome to the age of the Bernie Sanders-JD Vance coalition against Big Business. Say goodbye to prosperity.
A case in point: The president this past weekend floated a solid proposal. Rather than continue to dump government subsidies into the government-created and government-micromanaged system called ObamaCare—which is failing because of, well, government—why not hand that cash to individual Americans, giving them more choice over their care? “Republicans should give money DIRECTLY to your personal HEALTH SAVINGS ACCOUNTS,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social.
It’s a smart concept, one that moves toward a free-market system in which consumers control dollars in ways that produce more transparent, portable, cost-effective and results-oriented medicine. Only the president in the same post undermined the premise by asserting that the reason to adopt his plan was to get revenge on the Democrats’ buddies in the “insurance industry,” which is “making a ‘killing’ ” while the “little guy” suffers. That is, move toward a free-market system so as to stick it to business. Work through that logic.
And so it goes. Vice President Vance regularizes the slur “Big Pharma,” trashing on drugmakers with a vitriol to make any socialist proud. The president orders the Justice Department to investigate the “Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation”—a replica of Joe Biden’s accusations. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley introduces the End Airline Extortion Act—a new low in shooting fish in a barrel—making common cause with Elizabeth Warren. The only “Big” the GOP can tolerate these days are their own not-so-beautiful bills.
The most charitable excuse for this is economic ignorance. And it’s true that an alarming number of congressional members—and their staffers—these days think the supply side is a band from the ’90s. Then again, our onetime venture-capitalist veep suggests something more cynical at play. Trashing on wealth creators is an easy way to stoke the furies of the “forgotten man” voter the GOP courts. And it’s easier (read lazier) than explaining markets, intellectual property, prices—or the central and inevitable problem of government policy failure.
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Corporate America hasn’t bathed itself in distinction in recent decades, though its sin is hardly an excess of capitalist spirits. The exact opposite. Its failure has been making itself a government extension, working to capture its share of corporate welfare, to slice the regulatory pie to its benefit, to gain “woke” plaudits—rather than to fight interference. Let’s indulge the Biden electric-vehicle fantasy! Let’s work with the feds to censor Covid-19 debate! Let’s ask for subsidies for everything! Let’s roll over to European socialist price controls on drugs! It’s a bit much to ask CYA politicians to stick up for a business world that uniformly fails to stick up for itself.
Yet the Republicans pandering to antibusiness “populism” are already suffering the political and economic consequences. The GOP’s summer reconciliation bill was its best shot at injecting life into an economy still hampered by Biden-era blowouts and now tariff uncertainty. And yes, the party did waylay what would have been a devastating tax hike.
But it completely whelped on the policies necessary to spur growth quickly. Why? Because the panderers forbade all the pro-growth provisions—reducing top marginal rates, repealing the corporate alternative minimum tax, reducing the capital-gains tax—since those might help “the wealthy.” The party also (again) failed to reduce in any meaningful way the biggest drag on the economy—government spending. The bill’s money instead went to gimmicks to win votes, like tax exclusions for tips and overtime pay.
Scott Lincicome explains that “Trump’s China deal is a major indictment of U.S. trade policy.” Two slices:
Other terms of the deal are an expressly temporary return to the summer 2025 status quo rather than a grand resolution of the many issues that have long plagued the bilateral relationship. A one-year suspension of rare-earth restrictions, for example, doesn’t mean much when—thanks to various regulatory restrictions and permitting bottlenecks—it takes years for mining and processing facilities to get up and running in the United States (if you can do it at all). Neither will China be making any systemic reforms to its export-dependent economy, nor to trade or human rights issues that have long aggravated Washington and other U.S. trading partners. So, the best we can say about this deal is that—as Trump himself has acknowledged—it’s a one-year punt that we’ll do all over again next year. That approach might provide sufficient relief for stock traders and certain U.S. importers with orders already placed, but it’ll do little to nothing to improve the uncertainty plaguing U.S. trade policy and, as the latest ISM manufacturing survey shows, the operations of many American manufacturers today.
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Surely, there are other tariffs the U.S. could impose to offset some of these new Chinese advantages. For now, however, the combination of lower China tariffs and higher everyone else tariffs has shifted U.S. trade policy away from China hawkishness and toward global isolationism writ large—even if it benefits Beijing in the process. Other terms of the new bilateral deal, such as the United States’ unprecedented reversal of security-related export controls, also benefit China in surprising ways and indicate that Beijing may have more leverage today than the Trump administration is willing to admit.
This highlights the final problem that the China deal reveals: Recent U.S. isolationism has helped tilt the global balance of power toward China and away from the United States. As we’ve discussed repeatedly, the United States is a huge market but still a relatively small share of global trade, thus limiting Washington’s ability to force exporters into eating U.S. tariffs or to coerce the Chinese government into doing its bidding on trade or anything else. One obvious way to counter the latter issue was for the United States to create a voluntary coalition of like-minded countries freely trading with each other—building not only diplomatic goodwill but also a collective industrial base that outmatches even China’s behemoth and decreases dependence on the Chinese economy and exports.
Tim Worstall counsels: “Don’t panic about rare earths.” A slice:
Do not allow yourself to get confused by China having 40 per cent or whatever of rare earth reserves. Reserves are something made by humans — deposits are what God’s Friday afternoon engineer strew about the place. And rare earths are neither rare nor earths, and they are nearly everywhere. The biggest restriction on being able to process them is the light radioactivity the easiest ores (so easy they are a waste product of other industrial processes — monazite say) contain. If we had rational and sensible rules about light radioactivity — alas, we don’t — then that end of the process would already be done. Passing Marco Rubio’s Thorium Act would, for example, make Florida’s phosphate gypsum stacks available and they have more rare earths in them than several sticks could be shaken at.
Merrill Matthews reflects on last week’s oral arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court on Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. Two slices:
[Solicitor General John] Sauer may have done the best he could putting lipstick on the pig that is Trump’s tariffs — but it’s still a pig.
The most ludicrous aspect of Sauer’s Supreme Court argument was his claim that federal revenue from Trump’s tariffs was “incidental.” Sauer claimed Trump was just exercising his constitutional power to manage foreign policy, not raising federal revenue. According to Sauer, “These are regulatory tariffs, they are not revenue-raising tariffs. The fact that they raise revenue is only incidental.”
The problem with Sauer’s claim is that the president and his advisors have repeatedly cited increased federal revenue as one of the reasons for imposing tariffs.
Take, for example, Trump’s inaugural address on Jan. 20. In the speech Trump said, “I will immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.”
Does that sound like federal revenue from tariffs was a byproduct of Trump’s plan?
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After striking down many of Trump’s current tariffs, the Supreme Court could deliver a broader ruling, outlining what powers the president does and does not have with respect to imposing tariffs. That would be the best way to resolve the issue so that the economy and trade policy can stabilize and taxpayers can be spared paying ever more tariffs.
Pointing out that “Democrats are beating Trump on affordability,” my intrepid Mercatus Center colleague, Veronique de Rugy, wonders if he will “keep pretending otherwise.” A slice:
The 2025 food basket is a perfect metaphor for the broader economy. The president insists that “every price is down,” but that’s incorrect. While chicken breasts cost a bit less than a year ago, eggs, bacon, orange juice, and beef are all more expensive. Trump’s policies didn’t trigger these price hikes, but they sure do perpetuate them.
Trump is also wrong to claim that “we’re at a perfect number” on inflation, which no longer dominates headlines. But it’s still affecting people. Since early 2021, average hourly earnings are up about 21.8 percent. Consumer prices have risen faster, with grocery prices up nearly 30 percent since 2020.
When Trump officials say inflation is down, they mean that the latest 3 percent year-over-year Consumer Price Index reading is nothing like the 9.1 percent experienced during the Biden years. They ignore that it’s up from 2.3 percent just this past spring.
At steady 3 percent inflation, a dollar is worth only 74 cents after 10 years.
Still, ordinary Americans are fabulously rich. Alex Tabarrok understandably exclaims that “it’s astonishing that the richest country in world history could convince itself that it was plundered by immigrants and trade. Truly astonishing.”
Kate Andrews points out a harsh truth about the dangers of state-sponsored media. Here’s her wise conclusion:
No single media organization can claim to be the arbiter of truth. Competition makes us all better. American media may be bitterly divided, but hearing things you “do not want to hear” sometimes is, as Orwell identified, far better than the alternative.