But how are tariffs a viable alternative for making foreigners pay for defense? Surely John Lott, a first-rate economist, understands that the bulk of the burden of a tariff is typically borne by importers, not exporters, of the taxed good.
Note the irony. On the one hand, Lott seems to want to ignore the assertions Trump has made over the years in favor of tariffs as a protectionist tool. On the other hand, he seems to accept uncritically Trump’s claim that the exporters pay the tariffs.
A crucial but unstated problem with Lott’s argument in this piece:
If tariffs are primarily a tax revenue measure, as he argues, then all of the “emergency” legal pretexts that Trump used to implement them via IEEPA executive orders (“trade deficits,” an alleged fentanyl smuggling crisis) are outright false on their face.
If tariffs are just “a tax like any other,” then they cannot be imposed by unilateral executive decree. Lott’s entire argument unwittingly concedes their unconstitutionality.
Economist Brian Albrecht nicely summarizes six reasons why economists so strongly oppose tariffs.
By now, you’re probably also familiar with the free-trader case against raising prices and distorting markets with tariffs to address this supposed “trade deficit” problem. In “The Wealth of Nations,” Adam Smith wrote that “nothing … can be more absurd than this whole doctrine of the balance of trade.”
But it’s also worth pointing out that it’s just as easy to make a nationalist case against trade surpluses.
As it stands, nationalists already don’t like the trade surplus the U.S. does have. They demean jobs in finance and tech as unmanly and hold intangible products to be less vital than tangible ones, even though the U.S. services trade surplus is nearly $300 billion.
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But having a trade surplus doesn’t necessarily mean more domestically sourced products. Germany also has a highly globally integrated economy, and imports equaled 38 percent of Germany’s gross domestic product last year. Imports only equaled 14 percent of U.S. GDP last year. So despite Germany’s trade surplus and America’s large trade deficit, Germany imports almost three times as much as the U.S. does relative to the size of the economy.
That means not only is the German economy less “self-sufficient,” but German workers are laboring to produce more for foreigners — including Americans, since the U.S. had an $84.8 billion goods trade deficit with Germany last year. What’s nationalist about sending the fruits of your labor abroad?
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Meanwhile, not only do top South Korean and Japanese companies sell far more cars in the U.S. than they do in their home countries, but they also invest billions of dollars in the U.S. to build state-of-the-art factories that Japanese and South Koreans will never work in. According to nationalists, shouldn’t they be investing that money in good-paying jobs in Japan and South Korea instead of sending capital abroad to make American workers and car buyers better off?
You can play this game all day. Mercantilist logic is infinitely malleable, and it produces a surplus of the absurdity that Smith was talking about way back in the 1700s. The truth is that voluntary trade makes both sides better off, and the balance of trade is an accounting convention that is irrelevant to overall economic health.
Alan Blinder is rightly critical of Trump’s tariffs. Two slices:
While it keeps changing, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports now stands at its highest level in about a century—more than six times as high as when President Biden left office. Mr. Trump seems proud of this. But these high tariffs are poor economics, bad foreign policy and almost certainly illegal.
Tariffs are discriminatory sales taxes levied only on imported goods. All taxes affect the economy’s efficiency, as Republicans once understood. And sales taxes aimed at goods hurt people with lower incomes the most, as Walmart shoppers are learning.
At the macro level, tariffs are stagflationary: They push prices up and slow economic growth. They also deprive the nation of what economists call “the gains from trade,” which means acquiring goods that are cheaper, better or simply more in line with consumer preferences than domestic offerings. In some cases, governments set tariff rates so high that they make importing particular items prohibitively expensive. A contemporary example of that is our current 100% duty on electric vehicles from China. In other cases, domestic producers simply can’t make some of the things we import. Think bananas from Guatemala.
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What the law actually says is that presidential authority under IEEPA “may only be exercised to deal with an unusual and extraordinary threat . . . to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the President declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.”
What national emergency? President Trump has declared one emergency after another. But where’s the “unusual and extraordinary threat” from trade imbalances? They don’t threaten national security, foreign policy, or the U.S. economy. Come to think of it, what do they threaten?
The legal case is now before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit after the administration lost in a lower court. It’s a good bet that the administration will lose this appeal and take the case to the Trump-friendly Supreme Court. The court’s obsequiousness to Mr. Trump is in for a real test. Will it dance around clear constitutional prose?
Is Intel finally discovering the wages of industrial policy? See President Trump’s demand Thursday that CEO Lip-Bu Tan resign. Mr. Trump likes to boss companies around, but Intel has made itself especially vulnerable owing to its dependence on federal largesse.
“The CEO of INTEL is highly CONFLICTED and must resign, immediately,” Mr. Trump wrote Thursday on Truth Social. What provoked the President’s ire? Hard to tell, but Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton on Tuesday sent Intel a letter expressing concern “about the security and integrity of Intel’s operations and its potential impact on US national security.”
Mr. Cotton cites Mr. Tan’s leadership at San Jose-based Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021. Cadence last week pleaded guilty and paid $140 million to resolve Justice Department charges that it violated export controls by selling chip design products to a Chinese military university.
According to its plea deal with the government, employees of Cadence’s China subsidiary concealed their violations from company export-compliance personnel. It’s not clear whether or when Mr. Tan became aware of the violations, though the company sought to crack down in 2021.
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Intel has been the biggest beneficiary of the largesse. Last year the Biden team announced up to $8.5 billion in direct grant funding and $11 billion in low-cost loans. But Intel has had execution problems and has repeatedly delayed construction of a new plant in Ohio owing to weak demand.
Intel’s “Silicon Heartland” factory was supposed to be finished in 2025, but now the target date is 2030. “Intel will further slow the pace of construction in Ohio to ensure spending is aligned with market demand,” the company said last month. Subsidies couldn’t drum up demand for Intel chips any more than they could electric vehicles.
Intel last year cut 15,000 jobs but continues to lose money. News reports this year said Trump officials were trying to broker a deal in which TSMC would invest in and run Intel’s U.S. plants. But with no white knight in sight, Mr. Tan announced plans to shrink Intel’s workforce by more than 20% by year end.
So much for claims the Chips Act would boost jobs. The U.S. has lost 21,000 semiconductor manufacturing jobs in the last year. The shots at Mr. Tan may have more to do with frustration over failed industrial policy than national security. Republicans who helped Democrats pass the Chips Act are partly at fault.
There will be few more vivid demonstrations to people of the fact that a tariff is indeed a tax — and a tax paid by Americans — than having to pay it directly.
That may be instructive.